1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. GB @ CIN
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Green Bay Phoenix at Cincinnati Bearcats

Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati
#225GBGreen Bay
@
#30CINCincinnati
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GBThis seasonCIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIN 85–62 · win probability CIN 98%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

GB 2, CIN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
GB has played the 255th-hardest schedule, CIN the 39th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CINBig
GB offense vs CIN defense
Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
CINBig
CIN offense vs GB defense
Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings
CINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GB 25.1%, CIN 30.6%. Defensive: GB 70.4%, CIN 72.7%
CINSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GB 15.9%, CIN 17.0%. Forced: GB 13.2%, CIN 18.2%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: GB plays 65.2 a game (339th fastest), CIN 69.4 (152nd). Faster games mean more points
CINSmall
Three-pointers
GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%; CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 37.3% and 43.8% of their shots
GBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GB 40%, CIN 1%. Transfers in: GB 3, CIN 12. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CINSmall
Home court
CIN at home. This season: CIN 0-0 at home, GB 0-0 away
GBSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GB 41.6, CIN 29.4. Allowed: GB 37.4, CIN 30.0
CINSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GB 54.9 and allows 53.6; CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CIN -23.1—
Total—146.9—
Projected score—GB 61.9 · CIN 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCIN -13.6—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreGB 27.6 · CIN 41.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Cincinnati has the better starters

Position by position: Green Bay 0, Cincinnati 4, even 1
Green BayBetterCincinnati
G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85
Even
G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95
G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
CINBig
G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75
G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8
CINBig
G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49
CINBig
G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92
F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71
CINSmall
F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
Green BayBetterCincinnati
GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7
CINBig
CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9
GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0
CINBig
CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
CINBig
Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players
CINBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
CINBig
Bench+6.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGB betterCIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Green Bay
Guards
O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew
Forwards
M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew
Centers
M. Cicic11 min
Cincinnati
Guards
J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR
Forwards
T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GBCIN
Scoring
73.9 #201Points per game73.1 #221
1.13 #83Points per possession1.05 #243
65.2 #339Pace (possessions)69.4 #152
Shooting
54.9 #41Effective FG%50.5 #213
36.4 #423-point %33.9 #175
37.3 #2243-point attempt rate43.8 #94
41.6 #36Free throw rate29.4 #323
Possessions
15.9 #133Turnover rate17.0 #203
25.1 #339Offensive rebound rate30.6 #174
13.7 #172Assists per game16.6 #35
Defense
75.9 #215Points allowed67.6 #27
1.17 #338Points allowed per possession0.97 #9
53.6 #287Opponent effective FG%47.4 #27
36.3 #316Opponent 3-point %31.0 #35
13.2 #350Turnovers forced18.2 #89
70.4 #140Defensive rebound rate72.7 #45
4.2 #361Steals per game6.3 #208
2.7 #282Blocks per game4.2 #53
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky76–96
  • Wvs Purdue FW64–56
  • Wvs Youngstown St85–63
  • L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
  • W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCF65–66
  • Wvs Utah73–66
  • L@ TCU63–73
  • Wvs BYU90–68
  • Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.