1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 8
  3. GB @ STMN
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 8

Green Bay Phoenix at St. Thomas Tommies

Lee & Penny Anderson Arena · at St Thomas
#225GBGreen Bay
@
#212STMNSt Thomas
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GBThis seasonSTMN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STMN 77–73 · win probability STMN 64%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

GB 0, STMN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
STMNBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GB 15.9%, STMN 14.4%. Forced: GB 13.2%, STMN 17.0%
STMNBig
Three-pointers
GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%; STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 37.3% and 46.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: GB plays 65.2 a game (339th fastest), STMN 69.7 (137th). Faster games mean more points
STMNSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GB 54.9 and allows 53.6; STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7
Context
Schedule so far
GB has played the 255th-hardest schedule, STMN the 341st. A record against a soft schedule means less
STMNSmall
Home court
STMN at home. This season: STMN 0-0 at home, GB 0-0 away
STMNSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GB 25.1%, STMN 22.6%. Defensive: GB 70.4%, STMN 73.4%
Even
STMN offense vs GB defense
Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GB 40%, STMN 35%. Transfers in: GB 3, STMN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GB 41.6, STMN 33.8. Allowed: GB 37.4, STMN 30.7
Even
GB offense vs STMN defense
Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—STMN -4.0—
Total—149.2—
Projected score—GB 72.6 · STMN 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSTMN -2.3—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreGB 33.7 · STMN 36—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Green Bay has the better starters

Position by position: Green Bay 2, St Thomas 1, even 2
Green BayBetterSt Thomas
G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85
GBSmall
G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57
G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
Even
G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8
STMNSmall
F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25
F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49
GBBig
F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9
F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71
No call
F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
Green BayBetterSt Thomas
GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7
Even
STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8
GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0
Even
STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players
GBBig
Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
STMNSmall
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGB betterSTMN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Green Bay
Guards
O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew
Forwards
M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew
Centers
M. Cicic11 min
St Thomas
Guards
A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min
Forwards
C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GBSTMN
Scoring
73.9 #201Points per game80.9 #48
1.13 #83Points per possession1.16 #45
65.2 #339Pace (possessions)69.7 #137
Shooting
54.9 #41Effective FG%58.9 #5
36.4 #423-point %36.0 #57
37.3 #2243-point attempt rate46.3 #41
41.6 #36Free throw rate33.8 #220
Possessions
15.9 #133Turnover rate14.4 #37
25.1 #339Offensive rebound rate22.6 #353
13.7 #172Assists per game16.4 #37
Defense
75.9 #215Points allowed73.1 #135
1.17 #338Points allowed per possession1.05 #82
53.6 #287Opponent effective FG%50.7 #139
36.3 #316Opponent 3-point %31.7 #52
13.2 #350Turnovers forced17.0 #152
70.4 #140Defensive rebound rate73.4 #25
4.2 #361Steals per game7.5 #87
2.7 #282Blocks per game2.6 #296
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky76–96
  • Wvs Purdue FW64–56
  • Wvs Youngstown St85–63
  • L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
  • W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Seattle U52–67
  • Lvs North Dakota66–67
  • Wvs S Dakota St80–67
  • Wvs Omaha68–53
  • Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.