Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 4:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Suns
LAL	This season	PHX
5-2	Record	1-3
4-3	ATS	0-4
4-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 118–115 · win probability LAL 60%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 5, PHX 2 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, PHX 22.8. Allowed: LAL 30.7, PHX 31.1

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

LALBig

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 45.7% and 45.1% of their shots

LALBig

Recent form

Last 4: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, PHX 17.1%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, PHX 65.1%

Even

PHX offense vs LAL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: LAL away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs CHA	L117–135LO
Nov 18	vs UTAH	W132–123WO
Nov 20	vs SAC	W128–104WU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ DEN	L120–127LO
Nov 18	@ SAC	W114–103WU
Nov 20	@ UTAH	W134–109WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

LAL 9–13 PHXPHX leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · LAL 10-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	PHX 73 @ LAL 101	LAL +2.5	LAL W
Feb 26, 2025-26	LAL 110 @ PHX 113	PHX +5.5	PHX W
Dec 23, 2025-26	LAL 108 @ PHX 132	PHX -3.5	PHX W
Dec 14, 2025-26	LAL 116 @ PHX 114	PHX -1.5	LAL W
Dec 1, 2025-26	PHX 125 @ LAL 108	LAL -5.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 3, Suns 0, even 2

LakersBetterSuns

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

Even

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

LALBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

Even

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

LALSmall

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

LakersBetterSuns

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

Even

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

LALBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

PHX5.3 #10

LAL		PHX
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.12 #12
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
38.9 #4	3-point %	35.0 #16
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
23.4 #27	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
10.4 #4	Steals per game	9.0 #15
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Suns

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Suns

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Suns