Charlotte Hornets at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 4:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Clippers
CHA	This season	LAC
3-4	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	3-3
1-6	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 109–105 · win probability LAC 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 214.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

CHA 2, LAC 5 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

LAC offense vs CHA defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

LACBig

CHA offense vs LAC defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, LAC 70.9%

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 50.8% and 42.3% of their shots

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, LAC 28.0. Allowed: CHA 28.4, LAC 24.7

LACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, LAC 17.0%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: CHA away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ LAL	W135–117WO
Nov 20	@ ATL	L81–128LU
Nov 23	vs MEM	W124–101WU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs UTAH	W115–103WU
Nov 19	@ SA	L99–118LU
Nov 21	@ DAL	W116–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 0–10 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 10 meetings · CHA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 12, 2025-26	CHA 109 @ LAC 117	LAC -4.5	LAC W
Nov 22, 2025-26	LAC 131 @ CHA 116	CHA -1.5	LAC W
Mar 16, 2024-25	CHA 88 @ LAC 123	LAC -13.5	LAC W
Jan 31, 2024-25	LAC 112 @ CHA 104	CHA +13.5	CHA W
Mar 31, 2023-24	LAC 130 @ CHA 118	CHA +14.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 2, Clippers 1, even 2

HornetsBetterClippers

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

Even

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHABig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

LACSmall

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

Even

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

HornetsBetterClippers

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

LACBig

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHABig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

CHABig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

LAC4.2 #22

CHA		LAC
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	106.5 #28
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.04 #27
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
29.6 #28	3-point %	38.6 #5
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
21.6 #30	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
7.1 #25	Steals per game	11.3 #3
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Clippers

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Clippers