1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. WOF @ UNC
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Wofford Terriers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
#249WOFWofford
@
#44UNCNorth Carolina
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WOFThis seasonUNC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 89–64 · win probability UNC 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 153.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

WOF 0, UNC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
WOF has played the 283rd-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNCBig
UNC offense vs WOF defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 258th, on the model’s ratings
UNCBig
WOF offense vs UNC defense
Offense 241st of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
UNCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WOF 52.5 and allows 53.8; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4
UNCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WOF 36.2, UNC 37.1. Allowed: WOF 36.9, UNC 23.8
UNCSmall
Home court
UNC at home. This season: UNC 0-0 at home, WOF 0-0 away
UNCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WOF 29.8%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: WOF 71.0%, UNC 72.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WOF 43%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: WOF 1, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WOF 13.4%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: WOF 15.0%, UNC 13.6%
Even
Three-pointers
WOF hits 35.0% and allows 36.4%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 43.1% and 42.2% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: WOF plays 68.7 a game (198th fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNC -24.9—
Total—153.5—
Projected score—WOF 64.3 · UNC 89.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNC -14.7—
1H total71.8—
1H projected scoreWOF 28.5 · UNC 43.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

North Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Wofford 0, North Carolina 4, even 1
WoffordBetterNorth Carolina
G L. Flynn5.6 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10
UNCBig
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
G C. Watley9.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28
UNCBig
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
G C. Arias TR6.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 44
UNCSmall
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F B. Sumpter6.6 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 34
UNCSmall
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
F C. Richards3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
WoffordBetterNorth Carolina
WOF offense241st of 366 · -7.3
UNCBig
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
WOF defense258th of 366 · -6.7
UNCBig
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
UNCBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.4 · 2 players
UNCBig
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Even
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWOF betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wofford
Guards
L. Flynn27 minC. Watley25 minC. Arias18 min · TRD. Miller2 minG. Collins2 minC. LoweNew
Forwards
B. Sumpter23 minC. Richards8 minC. SiskNew
Centers
E. RamseyNew
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WOFUNC
Scoring
78.4 #90Points per game79.7 #73
1.14 #74Points per possession1.16 #50
68.7 #198Pace (possessions)69.0 #180
Shooting
52.5 #127Effective FG%54.3 #57
35.0 #1193-point %34.2 #159
43.1 #1123-point attempt rate42.2 #132
36.2 #144Free throw rate37.1 #127
Possessions
13.4 #12Turnover rate13.9 #20
29.8 #212Offensive rebound rate31.2 #159
13.8 #161Assists per game16.0 #47
Defense
78.6 #282Points allowed71.6 #97
1.15 #317Points allowed per possession1.04 #65
53.8 #294Opponent effective FG%48.4 #44
36.4 #322Opponent 3-point %34.7 #234
15.0 #291Turnovers forced13.6 #344
71.0 #101Defensive rebound rate72.2 #59
5.6 #283Steals per game5.4 #308
3.1 #201Blocks per game3.4 #167
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wofford

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Greensboro72–75
  • Lvs The Citadel90–93
  • W@ ETSU72–69
  • Lvs Furman67–76
  • Wvs VMI82–76

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.