UC Davis Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 4, 11:59 PM ETStan Sheriff Center · at Hawai'i · Conference game

#182UCDUC Davis69final

Final

#140HAWHawai'i75▲ winner

Closing lineNo line yet

Closing total—

Season records: UC Davis and Hawai'i
UCD	This season	HAW
4-2	Record	5-2
3-3	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCD 67–76 HAW · ✓ HAW (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCD	28	41	69
HAW	33	42	75

1st half: UCD 28, HAW 33 (HAW by 5). The model had HAW by 5.3 and a total of 67.1 (actual 61).

Team stats

UCD		HAW
25-59 42%	Field goals	25-46 54%
4-16 25%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
15-21 71%	Free throws	18-31 58%
32 8 off	Rebounds	35 5 off
11	Assists	12
9	Steals	8
2	Blocks	2
11	Turnovers	15
23	Fouls	21
30	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	6

Players

UCD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Connor Sevilla G	35	17	1	1	7-12	1-4
Nils Cooper G	33	14	5	1	7-13	0-1
Marcus Wilson G	30	6	3	5	3-9	0-0
Niko Rocak F	28	13	8	0	3-5	1-3
Omer Suljanovic F	17	3	1	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
Isaiah Chappell F	25	11	6	0	2-6	2-3
Brayden Fagbemi G	20	3	3	4	1-8	0-4
Jalen Stokes G	10	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Chase Rawlins G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Carl Daughtery Jr., Cyril Franklin Jr., Ylan Esso-Essis, Jonathan Noudjihidi, Abdullah Amzil

HAW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dre Bullock G	34	15	6	3	4-7	2-4
Aaron Hunkin-Claytor G	32	9	2	1	1-3	0-0
Hunter Erickson G	25	14	3	2	5-7	3-5
Isaac Johnson C	20	4	7	2	2-6	0-0
Harry Rouhliadeff F	20	2	4	2	1-2	0-1
Bench
Yacine Toumi F	20	13	2	1	4-4	0-0
Gytis Nemeiksa F	20	6	2	0	3-7	0-0
Isaiah Kerr G	15	7	3	0	3-6	1-3
Isaac Finlinson F	14	5	2	1	2-4	1-3

Did not play: Tanner Cuff, AJ Economou, Jalen Myers, Hunter Carter

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HAW -9.1	—
Total	—	143.3	—
Projected score	—	UCD 67.1 · HAW 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HAW -5.3	HAW -5.0
1H total	67.1	61
1H projected score	UCD 30.9 · HAW 36.2	UCD 28 · HAW 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCD LLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
HAW LWLLW	4-3	57%	3-3	—

Venue/role: UCD away; HAW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCD UUOOU	3-3	50%	4-2
HAW UUUOU	2-5	29%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCDlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
HAWlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

UCD 5–3 HAWUCD leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UCD 3-4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2024-25	UCD 70 @ HAW 78	HAW -3.5	HAW W
Jan 23, 2024-25	HAW 66 @ UCD 68	UCD -2.5	HAW W
Mar 15, 2023-24	HAW 65 vs UCD 68	UCD -1.5	UCD W
Feb 29, 2023-24	HAW 63 @ UCD 75	UCD -3.5	UCD W
Feb 10, 2023-24	UCD 70 @ HAW 87	HAW -1.5	HAW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Davis

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsNDSU	W 80-68	-1.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	@PORT	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsSAC	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 18	@NEV	W 75-71	+12.5	W +16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 21	@COLO	L 79-95	+14.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsUL	W 77-56	-9.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+10.5

PORT

L 63-67

−2.5

SAC

W 77-73

−0.5

NEV

W 75-71

+16.5

COLO

L 79-95

−1.5

W 77-56

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+5.5

PORT

L 63-67

−21.5

SAC

W 77-73

−1.5

NEV

W 75-71

+2.5

COLO

L 79-95

+21.5

W 77-56

−3.5

over 3under 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawai'i

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ORE	L 59-60	+11.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsETAM	W 100-74	-18.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMVSU	W 88-56	-41.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsMAN	W 86-56	-15.5	W +14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsUTU	W 68-62	-16.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsASU	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 28	vsUND	W 92-55	-18.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

+10.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+7.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−9.5

MAN

W 86-56

+14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−10.5

ASU

L 76-83

−8.5

UND

W 92-55

+18.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

−25.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+28.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−7.5

MAN

W 86-56

−14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−19.5

ASU

L 76-83

+15.5

UND

W 92-55

−2.5

over 2under 5avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Davis @ Hawai'i

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Davis

Hawai'i

UC Davis

Hawai'i