1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 4
  3. NKU @ SDAK
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 4

Northern Kentucky Norse at South Dakota Coyotes

Sanford Coyote Sports Center · at South Dakota
#229NKUN Kentucky
@
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NKUThis seasonSDAK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NKU 79–77 · win probability NKU 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

NKU 3, SDAK 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDAKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NKU 35.9, SDAK 45.2. Allowed: NKU 37.2, SDAK 31.0
NKUBig
NKU offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 209th of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
NKUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NKU 16.3%, SDAK 16.5%. Forced: NKU 18.6%, SDAK 15.9%
NKUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NKU 53.2 and allows 54.2; SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5
SDAKSmall
SDAK offense vs NKU defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 249th, on the model’s ratings
SDAKSmall
Home court
SDAK at home. This season: SDAK 0-0 at home, NKU 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NKU 32.2%, SDAK 28.7%. Defensive: NKU 68.4%, SDAK 69.7%
Even
Three-pointers
NKU hits 33.6% and allows 36.6%; SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 44.9% and 35.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: NKU plays 71.5 a game (55th fastest), SDAK 72.6 (23rd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
NKU has played the 289th-hardest schedule, SDAK the 305th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NKU 26%, SDAK 26%. Transfers in: NKU 4, SDAK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NKU -1.1—
Total—155.9—
Projected score—NKU 78.5 · SDAK 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNKU -0.8—
1H total72.8—
1H projected scoreNKU 36.8 · SDAK 36—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

N Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: N Kentucky 3, South Dakota 1, even 1
N KentuckyBetterSouth Dakota
G E. Elliott4.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.4 ast Score 3
SDAKSmall
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
G E. Acker TR5.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 38
Even
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
F N. Pagotto TR10.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1 ast Score 68
NKUBig
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
F W. Shortt TR6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
NKUSmall
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
F D. Rakotonanahary3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25
NKUSmall
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
N KentuckyBetterSouth Dakota
NKU offense209th of 366 · -6.3
NKUBig
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
NKU defense249th of 366 · -6.5
Even
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-5.4 · 2 players
NKUSmall
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
NKUSmall
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestNKU betterSDAK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Kentucky
Guards
E. Elliott29 minE. Acker19 min · TRB. Davis-Ray7 min · TRB. Darbyshire6 minJ. ApathjangNewW. FosterNew
Forwards
N. Pagotto27 min · TRW. Shortt20 min · TRD. Rakotonanahary12 minR. Tolliver6 minJ. RuizNewP. Otto MaeNew
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NKUSDAK
Scoring
80.9 #47Points per game78.0 #94
1.13 #81Points per possession1.07 #207
71.5 #55Pace (possessions)72.6 #23
Shooting
53.2 #93Effective FG%49.9 #239
33.6 #1933-point %32.4 #264
44.9 #713-point attempt rate35.9 #251
35.9 #158Free throw rate45.2 #4
Possessions
16.3 #158Turnover rate16.5 #168
32.2 #117Offensive rebound rate28.7 #242
15.5 #65Assists per game11.9 #295
Defense
78.7 #284Points allowed81.7 #337
1.10 #225Points allowed per possession1.13 #284
54.2 #305Opponent effective FG%54.5 #318
36.6 #333Opponent 3-point %34.5 #219
18.6 #66Turnovers forced15.9 #225
68.4 #236Defensive rebound rate69.7 #172
8.3 #25Steals per game6.1 #223
3.5 #134Blocks per game2.6 #293
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Kentucky

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-11 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St90–103
  • Wvs Green Bay96–76
  • W@ Oakland85–84
  • Lvs Wright St91–92
  • W@ Cleveland St81–70

A week or more of rest.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.