Cal State Northridge Matadors at Wichita State Shockers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 PM ETCharles Koch Arena · at Wichita St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CSU Northridge and Wichita St
CSUN	This season	WICH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WICH 85–70 · win probability WICH 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WICH has more of the edges

CSUN 0, WICH 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WICHBig

WICH offense vs CSUN defense

Offense 78th of 366 against a defense 271st, on the model’s ratings

WICHBig

Three-pointers

CSUN hits 32.4% and allows 34.4%; WICH hits 33.5% and allows 31.5%. Threes are 33.6% and 33.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

CSUN has played the 219th-hardest schedule, WICH the 106th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: CSUN plays 75.6 a game (2nd fastest), WICH 69.3 (164th). Faster games mean more points

WICHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CSUN 18%, WICH 55%. Transfers in: CSUN 7, WICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

WICHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CSUN 17.5%, WICH 15.0%. Forced: CSUN 16.5%, WICH 15.7%

WICHSmall

CSUN offense vs WICH defense

Offense 140th of 366 against a defense 82nd, on the model’s ratings

WICHSmall

Home court

WICH at home. This season: WICH 0-0 at home, CSUN 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CSUN 51.3 and allows 51.6; WICH 49.4 and allows 47.2

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CSUN 34.2, WICH 36.0. Allowed: CSUN 34.3, WICH 34.3

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CSUN 31.9%, WICH 38.0%. Defensive: CSUN 73.4%, WICH 71.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WICH -15.1	—
Total	—	154.7	—
Projected score	—	CSUN 69.8 · WICH 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WICH -8.8	—
1H total	72.3	—
1H projected score	CSUN 31.7 · WICH 40.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUN LLLWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—
WICH WLLWW	23-12	66%	12-5	—

Venue/role: CSUN away; WICH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUN OOUUO	19-13	59%	18-14
WICH UUUOO	15-20	43%	23-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
WICH	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CSU Northridge

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ KSU	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ TROY	W94–85WO
Nov 20	vs DEL	W88–66WO

Wichita St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs USC	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs APSU	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ LUC	W95–74WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CSU Northridge

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-13

59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1359%

U O O O U U U O O O O O O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 26	vsIDHO	L 64-78	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsIDST	L 50-82	+1.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 4	vsCSUB	W 87-66	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCI	L 71-85	+7.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsFRES	W 89-87	-3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 13	@DEL	W 88-66	+1.5	W +23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 22	vsSAC	W 100-88	-8.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 188
Dec 27	@STAN	L 80-88	+15.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 168
Jan 1	@UCD	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsUCSB	W 74-65	-2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsCP	W 95-90	-6.5	L −1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	@CSUF	L 79-86	+1.5	L −5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCSD	W 84-79	+7.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	vsLBSU	L 80-87	-7.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 24	@HAW	L 68-89	+10.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	vsUCD	W 94-78	-3.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsUCSD	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	@CP	W 97-96	-2.5	L −1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	vsUCR	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsHAW	W 84-60	+2.5	W +26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	@UCSB	W 85-83	+5.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@LBSU	W 78-76	-2.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	vsUCI	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UCR	L 84-95	-4.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@CSUB	W 86-84	-8.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	vsCSUF	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCSD	W 80-70	+1.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 13	vsUCI	L 78-93	+3.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−12.5

IDST

L 50-82

−30.5

CSUB

W 87-66

+15.5

UCI

L 71-85

−6.5

FRES

W 89-87

−1.5

DEL

W 88-66

+23.5

SAC

W 100-88

+3.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

−5.5

UCSB

W 74-65

+6.5

W 95-90

−1.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−5.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+12.5

LBSU

L 80-87

−14.5

HAW

L 68-89

−10.5

UCD

W 94-78

+12.5

UCSD

W 81-64

+18.5

W 97-96

−1.5

UCR

W 88-74

+3.5

HAW

W 84-60

+26.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+7.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−0.5

UCI

L 67-68

−2.5

UCR

L 84-95

−15.5

CSUB

W 86-84

−6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−18.5

UCSD

W 80-70

+11.5

UCI

L 78-93

−11.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−17.5

IDST

L 50-82

−16.5

CSUB

W 87-66

−2.5

UCI

L 71-85

+3.5

FRES

W 89-87

+14.5

DEL

W 88-66

+9.5

SAC

W 100-88

+23.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

+6.5

UCSB

W 74-65

−17.5

W 95-90

+9.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−8.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+3.5

LBSU

L 80-87

+8.5

HAW

L 68-89

−1.5

UCD

W 94-78

+8.5

UCSD

W 81-64

−15.5

W 97-96

+15.5

UCR

W 88-74

+1.5

HAW

W 84-60

−18.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+11.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−3.5

UCI

L 67-68

−18.5

UCR

L 84-95

+20.5

CSUB

W 86-84

+6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−3.5

UCSD

W 80-70

−3.5

UCI

L 78-93

+18.5

over 19under 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wichita St

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

23-12

66% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W W L W L L L W L W W W L L W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

23-1266%

W W W W W W L L W L L W W L L W L W W W L W W L W L W W W W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-2043%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsWKU	L 70-75	-4.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@UNI	W 74-69	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsDEP	L 58-61	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 17	vsWOF	W 84-73	-12.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 157
Dec 21	vsEKU	W 88-57	-14.5	W +16.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 31	@UAB	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Jan 3	@CLT	L 100-104	-5.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 204
Jan 7	vsRICE	L 64-66	-13.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsUNT	W 78-67	-8.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 15	@FAU	L 67-85	+3.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 18	@USF	W 86-85	+7.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsECU	W 77-60	-12.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsMEM	W 74-59	-3.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 133
Feb 1	@TLSA	L 83-93	+5.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsCLT	W 74-64	-9.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 8	@TULN	W 75-61	-5.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsUSF	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsTLSA	W 81-77	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 158
Feb 18	@ECU	W 92-89	-7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsTEM	W 69-57	-8.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 126
Feb 26	@MEM	W 88-82	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@UTSA	W 84-67	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 151
Mar 7	vsFAU	W 88-70	-8.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsTLSA	W 81-68	+1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 149
Mar 15	vsUSF	L 55-70	+6.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 125
Mar 17	vsWYO	W 74-70	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 22	@OKST	W 96-70	+2.5	W +28.5	164.5	O 166
Mar 24	@TLSA	L 79-83	+4.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

WKU

L 70-75

−9.5

UNI

W 74-69

+6.5

DEP

L 58-61

−10.5

WOF

W 84-73

−1.5

EKU

W 88-57

+16.5

UAB

W 75-70

+8.5

CLT

L 100-104

−9.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+2.5

FAU

L 67-85

−14.5

USF

W 86-85

+8.5

ECU

W 77-60

+4.5

MEM

W 74-59

+11.5

TLSA

L 83-93

−4.5

CLT

W 74-64

+0.5

TULN

W 75-61

+8.5

USF

L 58-66

−5.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+2.5

ECU

W 92-89

−4.5

TEM

W 69-57

+3.5

MEM

W 88-82

+7.5

UTSA

W 84-67

+1.5

FAU

W 88-70

+9.5

TLSA

W 81-68

+14.5

USF

L 55-70

−8.5

WYO

W 74-70

−1.5

OKST

W 96-70

+28.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+0.5

covered 23didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

WKU

L 70-75

−10.5

UNI

W 74-69

+7.5

DEP

L 58-61

−26.5

WOF

W 84-73

+12.5

EKU

W 88-57

−3.5

UAB

W 75-70

−4.5

CLT

L 100-104

+63.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+9.5

FAU

L 67-85

−3.5

USF

W 86-85

+12.5

ECU

W 77-60

−7.5

MEM

W 74-59

−12.5

TLSA

L 83-93

+21.5

CLT

W 74-64

−5.5

TULN

W 75-61

−12.5

USF

L 58-66

−36.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+5.5

ECU

W 92-89

+31.5

TEM

W 69-57

−18.5

MEM

W 88-82

+20.5

UTSA

W 84-67

−0.5

FAU

W 88-70

+7.5

TLSA

W 81-68

−3.5

USF

L 55-70

−26.5

WYO

W 74-70

−4.5

OKST

W 96-70

+1.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+7.5

over 15under 20avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wichita St has the better starters

Position by position: CSU Northridge 0, Wichita St 4, even 1

CSU NorthridgeBetterWichita St

G J. Davis16.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 7.5 ast Score 71

Even

G J. Long TR11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4 ast Score 72

G C. Smith TR7.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36

WICHBig

G J. Frison TR16.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.1 ast Score 93

G M. Ballew TR8.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

WICHSmall

G M. Gray7.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 37

G B. Hicks TR8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 49

WICHSmall

G T. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 80

G K. Ekissi TR4.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 29

WICHBig

C W. Berg8.8 pts · 8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 85

CSU NorthridgeBetterWichita St

CSUN offense140th of 366 · -4.2

WICHSmall

WICH defense82nd of 366 · +0.2

CSUN defense271st of 366 · -6.8

WICHBig

WICH offense78th of 366 · +0.8

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

WICHBig

Backcourt+3.8 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+2.8 · 1 player

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

WICHBig

Bench+0.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCSUN betterWICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CSU Northridge

Guards

J. Davis34 minC. Smith30 min · TRM. Ballew23 min · TRB. Hicks22 min · TRK. Ekissi17 min · TRG. Gazarian2 min

Forwards

J. Martin7 min · TRB. OmotNew

Centers

E. Stephen15 min · TRL. Niang8 min · TR

Wichita St

Guards

J. Long34 min · TRJ. Frison31 min · TRM. Gray27 minT. Williams22 minB. Heard18 min · TRJ. IghovodjaNew

Forwards

D. Battie18 minJ. Valencia13 minN. Hill5 minH. Thengvall2 min

Centers

W. Berg22 minC. Malonga11 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CSUN80.6 #54

WICH77.6 #105

Points per possession

CSUN1.06 #219

WICH1.12 #98

Pace (possessions)

CSUN75.6 #2

WICH69.3 #164

Shooting

Effective FG%

CSUN51.3 #183

WICH49.4 #274

3-point %

CSUN32.4 #260

WICH33.5 #195

3-point attempt rate

CSUN33.6 #308

WICH33.9 #300

Free throw rate

CSUN34.2 #200

WICH36.0 #149

Possessions

Turnover rate

CSUN17.5 #237

WICH15.0 #62

Offensive rebound rate

CSUN31.9 #130

WICH38.0 #8

Assists per game

CSUN16.7 #31

WICH11.3 #325

Defense

Points allowed

CSUN81.3 #336

WICH70.8 #71

Points allowed per possession

CSUN1.08 #153

WICH1.02 #42

Opponent effective FG%

CSUN51.6 #191

WICH47.2 #24

Opponent 3-point %

CSUN34.4 #210

WICH31.5 #44

Turnovers forced

CSUN16.5 #187

WICH15.7 #238

Defensive rebound rate

CSUN73.4 #26

WICH71.2 #93

Steals per game

CSUN6.6 #166

WICH6.0 #235

Blocks per game

CSUN2.8 #259

WICH3.8 #100

CSUN		WICH
Scoring
80.6 #54	Points per game	77.6 #105
1.06 #219	Points per possession	1.12 #98
75.6 #2	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #164
Shooting
51.3 #183	Effective FG%	49.4 #274
32.4 #260	3-point %	33.5 #195
33.6 #308	3-point attempt rate	33.9 #300
34.2 #200	Free throw rate	36.0 #149
Possessions
17.5 #237	Turnover rate	15.0 #62
31.9 #130	Offensive rebound rate	38.0 #8
16.7 #31	Assists per game	11.3 #325
Defense
81.3 #336	Points allowed	70.8 #71
1.08 #153	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #42
51.6 #191	Opponent effective FG%	47.2 #24
34.4 #210	Opponent 3-point %	31.5 #44
16.5 #187	Turnovers forced	15.7 #238
73.4 #26	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #93
6.6 #166	Steals per game	6.0 #235
2.8 #259	Blocks per game	3.8 #100

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CSU Northridge

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Irvine78–93
Wvs UC San Diego80–70
Lvs Fullerton77–90
W@ Bakersfield86–84
L@ UC Riverside84–95

A week or more of rest.

Wichita St

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa79–83
W@ Oklahoma St96–70
Wvs Wyoming74–70
Lvs South Florida55–70
Wvs Tulsa81–68

A week or more of rest.

Cal State Northridge Matadors at Wichita State Shockers

What could decide it: WICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

CSU Northridge

Wichita St

Wichita St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

CSU Northridge

Wichita St