SE Louisiana Lions at Auburn Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 8:00 PM ETNeville Arena · at Auburn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SE Louisiana and Auburn
SELA	This season	AUB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AUB 89–61 · win probability AUB 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AUB has more of the edges

SELA 0, AUB 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

AUBBig

SELA offense vs AUB defense

Offense 315th of 366 against a defense 41st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SELA has played the 276th-hardest schedule, AUB the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

AUBBig

AUB offense vs SELA defense

Offense 16th of 366 against a defense 177th, on the model’s ratings

AUBBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SELA 28.6%, AUB 37.0%. Defensive: SELA 68.6%, AUB 69.1%

AUBSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SELA 40.3, AUB 43.2. Allowed: SELA 41.2, AUB 34.3

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SELA plays 65.9 a game (318th fastest), AUB 69.7 (136th). Faster games mean more points

AUBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SELA 46.7 and allows 52.4; AUB 53.0 and allows 53.7

AUBSmall

Three-pointers

SELA hits 28.4% and allows 36.0%; AUB hits 34.4% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 39.5% and 40.2% of their shots

AUBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SELA 4%, AUB 38%. Transfers in: SELA 10, AUB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

AUBSmall

Home court

AUB at home. This season: AUB 0-0 at home, SELA 0-0 away

AUBSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SELA 18.4%, AUB 14.6%. Forced: SELA 19.1%, AUB 16.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AUB -28.2	—
Total	—	149.3	—
Projected score	—	SELA 60.5 · AUB 88.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AUB -16.6	—
1H total	69.8	—
1H projected score	SELA 26.6 · AUB 43.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SELA LLLLW	14-16	47%	7-10	—
AUB LLLWW	16-22	42%	7-11	—

Venue/role: SELA away; AUB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA UOOUO	13-17	43%	8-22
AUB UOUOO	22-16	58%	22-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
AUB	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SE Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ LR	No recent meeting
Nov 10	@ MISS	L58–88LO
Nov 16	@ TA&M	No recent meeting

Auburn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs APP	L64–69LU
Nov 13	vs ARIZ	L68–97LO
Nov 17	vs WVU	L77–80WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SELA 0–1 AUBAUB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SELA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2023-24	SELA 71 @ AUB 86	AUB -24.5	SELA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W L W W L W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O U O O O U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsGWEB	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsNAVY	W 69-65	+3.5	W +7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsNWST	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@HCU	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsETAM	L 69-70	-4.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 139
Dec 19	@LSU	L 65-78	+24.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 30	@UIW	L 70-79	+6.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSFA	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	vsLAM	W 60-52	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 112
Jan 10	@MCN	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNOLA	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	@AMCC	L 56-68	+5.5	L −6.5	130.5	U 124
Jan 19	@RGV	L 65-68	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsNICH	W 67-61	-2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsMCN	L 66-76	+12.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@SFA	L 58-85	+9.5	L −17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	@LAM	L 54-73	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsHCU	W 55-47	-4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	vsUIW	W 74-62	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 14	@NWST	L 66-69	+1.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	@ETAM	L 53-70	+2.5	L −14.5	136.5	U 123
Feb 21	vsRGV	L 75-96	+4.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	vsAMCC	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 141
Feb 28	@NICH	L 60-68	+4.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	@NOLA	W 82-78	+6.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+1.5

NAVY

W 69-65

+7.5

NWST

L 68-76

−15.5

HCU

W 74-71

+5.5

ETAM

L 69-70

−5.5

LSU

L 65-78

+11.5

UIW

L 70-79

−2.5

SFA

L 63-73

−6.5

LAM

W 60-52

+9.5

MCN

L 61-73

+4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

−5.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

+2.5

NICH

W 67-61

+3.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

−17.5

LAM

L 54-73

−13.5

HCU

W 55-47

+3.5

UIW

W 74-62

+10.5

NWST

L 66-69

−1.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−14.5

RGV

L 75-96

−16.5

AMCC

L 68-73

−3.5

NICH

L 60-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+2.5

NAVY

W 69-65

−2.5

NWST

L 68-76

+10.5

HCU

W 74-71

+12.5

ETAM

L 69-70

+1.5

LSU

L 65-78

−1.5

UIW

L 70-79

+13.5

SFA

L 63-73

−1.5

LAM

W 60-52

−23.5

MCN

L 61-73

−4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

+12.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

−2.5

NICH

W 67-61

−13.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

+7.5

LAM

L 54-73

−5.5

HCU

W 55-47

−31.5

UIW

W 74-62

−1.5

NWST

L 66-69

+3.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−13.5

RGV

L 75-96

+32.5

AMCC

L 68-73

+10.5

NICH

L 60-68

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+16.5

over 13under 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Auburn

38 games played

Straight up

22-16

58% wins

Against the spread

16-22

42% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-16

58% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1658%

W W W L W W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W L L L L L W L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-2242%

L W W W W W L W W L L L W W L W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-1658%

O O O O O O O U U O O U U O O U O U U U O U O U U O U O O O O U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBCU	W 95-90	-24.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	vsMRMK	W 95-57	-23.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	vsWOF	W 93-62	-27.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 16	vsHOU	L 72-73	+7.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 19	vsJKST	W 112-66	-30.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsORE	W 84-73	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsMICH	L 72-102	+4.5	L −25.5	163.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsSJU	W 85-74	+4.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 3	vsNCSU	W 83-73	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	@ARIZ	L 68-97	+11.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsUTC	W 92-78	-19.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsPUR	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsQUC	W 106-65	-25.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 3	@UGA	L 100-104	+6.5	W +2.5	173.5	O 204
Jan 6	vsTA&M	L 88-90	-6.5	L −8.5	168.5	O 178
Jan 10	vsARK	W 95-73	-2.5	W +19.5	169.5	U 168
Jan 14	@MIZ	L 74-84	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 158
Jan 17	vsSC	W 71-67	-13.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	@MISS	W 78-66	-3.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 24	@FLA	W 76-67	+11.5	W +20.5	159.5	U 143
Jan 28	vsTEX	W 88-82	-6.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 170
Jan 31	@TENN	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Feb 7	vsALA	L 92-96	-2.5	L −6.5	175.5	O 188
Feb 10	vsVAN	L 76-84	-3.5	L −11.5	161.5	U 160
Feb 14	@ARK	L 75-88	+7.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 163
Feb 18	@MSST	L 85-91	-5.5	L −11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	vsUK	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@OU	L 79-91	-3.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsMISS	L 79-85	-10.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 164
Mar 3	vsLSU	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	@ALA	L 84-96	+5.5	L −6.5	175.5	O 180
Mar 11	vsMSST	W 79-61	-8.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 140
Mar 12	vsTENN	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Mar 17	vsUSA	W 78-67	-18.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 22	vsSEA	W 91-85	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 176
Mar 25	vsNEV	W 75-69	-8.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 144
Apr 2	vsILST	W 88-66	-7.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 154
Apr 5	vsTLSA	W 92-86	-5.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

−19.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+14.5

WOF

W 93-62

+3.5

HOU

L 72-73

+6.5

JKST

W 112-66

+15.5

ORE

W 84-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-102

−25.5

SJU

W 85-74

+15.5

NCSU

W 83-73

+4.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

−17.5

UTC

W 92-78

−5.5

PUR

L 60-88

−20.5

QUC

W 106-65

+15.5

UGA

L 100-104

+2.5

TA&M

L 88-90

−8.5

ARK

W 95-73

+19.5

MIZ

L 74-84

−11.5

W 71-67

−9.5

MISS

W 78-66

+8.5

FLA

W 76-67

+20.5

TEX

W 88-82

−0.5

TENN

L 69-77

−2.5

ALA

L 92-96

−6.5

VAN

L 76-84

−11.5

ARK

L 75-88

−5.5

MSST

L 85-91

−11.5

W 75-74

−2.5

L 79-91

−15.5

MISS

L 79-85

−16.5

LSU

W 88-74

+3.5

ALA

L 84-96

−6.5

MSST

W 79-61

+9.5

TENN

L 62-72

−4.5

USA

W 78-67

−7.5

SEA

W 91-85

−8.5

NEV

W 75-69

−2.5

ILST

W 88-66

+14.5

TLSA

W 92-86

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 22avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

+31.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+3.5

WOF

W 93-62

+2.5

HOU

L 72-73

+4.5

JKST

W 112-66

+21.5

ORE

W 84-73

+1.5

MICH

L 72-102

+10.5

SJU

W 85-74

−7.5

NCSU

W 83-73

−6.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

+2.5

UTC

W 92-78

+19.5

PUR

L 60-88

−4.5

QUC

W 106-65

−0.5

UGA

L 100-104

+30.5

TA&M

L 88-90

+9.5

ARK

W 95-73

−1.5

MIZ

L 74-84

+4.5

W 71-67

−14.5

MISS

W 78-66

−7.5

FLA

W 76-67

−16.5

TEX

W 88-82

+15.5

TENN

L 69-77

−1.5

ALA

L 92-96

+12.5

VAN

L 76-84

−1.5

ARK

L 75-88

−2.5

MSST

L 85-91

+20.5

W 75-74

−4.5

L 79-91

+12.5

MISS

L 79-85

+10.5

LSU

W 88-74

+6.5

ALA

L 84-96

+4.5

MSST

W 79-61

−20.5

TENN

L 62-72

−10.5

USA

W 78-67

−6.5

SEA

W 91-85

+30.5

NEV

W 75-69

−7.5

ILST

W 88-66

+4.5

TLSA

W 92-86

+19.5

over 22under 16avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Auburn has the better starters

Position by position: SE Louisiana 0, Auburn 5, even 0

SE LouisianaBetterAuburn

G Q. Allen TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 62

AUBSmall

G T. Pettiford15.4 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 88

G J. Furman TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

AUBBig

G K. Overton14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 90

G T. Bailey TR6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 12

AUBBig

G K. King TR7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83

G T. Rolison TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 58

AUBSmall

F T. Dowd TR14.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 83

F A. Sims TR7.2 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 28

AUBBig

F A. Olsen TR17 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 66

SE LouisianaBetterAuburn

SELA offense315th of 366 · -10.2

AUBBig

AUB defense41st of 366 · +2.8

SELA defense177th of 366 · -4.0

AUBBig

AUB offense16th of 366 · +8.7

Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players

AUBBig

Backcourt+6.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 1 player

AUBBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

AUBBig

Bench+3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSELA betterAUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SE Louisiana

Guards

Q. Allen25 min · TRJ. Furman24 min · TRT. Bailey23 min · TRT. Rolison17 min · TRG. Sanford12 min · TRJ. Nyam1 min · TR

Forwards

A. Sims32 min · TRJ. Massaquoi17 min · TRY. Ndjonga10 min · TRG. Shoemaker7 min

Centers

D. Akoue12 min · TR

Auburn

Guards

T. Pettiford32 minK. Overton32 minK. King19 min · TRB. Muschalek6 minS. Walker5 minD. Cardwell1 min

Forwards

T. Dowd37 min · TRA. Olsen37 min · TRO. Freeman12 min · TRJ. BowmanNew

Centers

B. Oboye18 min · TRN. NgoyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SELA64.8 #350

AUB83.0 #27

Points per possession

SELA0.98 #339

AUB1.19 #19

Pace (possessions)

SELA65.9 #318

AUB69.7 #136

Shooting

Effective FG%

SELA46.7 #343

AUB53.0 #104

3-point %

SELA28.4 #362

AUB34.4 #147

3-point attempt rate

SELA39.5 #183

AUB40.2 #166

Free throw rate

SELA40.3 #56

AUB43.2 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

SELA18.4 #291

AUB14.6 #45

Offensive rebound rate

SELA28.6 #245

AUB37.0 #15

Assists per game

SELA11.4 #319

AUB13.2 #198

Defense

Points allowed

SELA71.3 #86

AUB78.8 #287

Points allowed per possession

SELA1.08 #172

AUB1.13 #281

Opponent effective FG%

SELA52.4 #233

AUB53.7 #291

Opponent 3-point %

SELA36.0 #301

AUB36.7 #336

Turnovers forced

SELA19.1 #47

AUB16.3 #201

Defensive rebound rate

SELA68.6 #225

AUB69.1 #196

Steals per game

SELA6.8 #145

AUB7.5 #83

Blocks per game

SELA2.7 #272

AUB4.1 #63

SELA		AUB
Scoring
64.8 #350	Points per game	83.0 #27
0.98 #339	Points per possession	1.19 #19
65.9 #318	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #136
Shooting
46.7 #343	Effective FG%	53.0 #104
28.4 #362	3-point %	34.4 #147
39.5 #183	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #166
40.3 #56	Free throw rate	43.2 #19
Possessions
18.4 #291	Turnover rate	14.6 #45
28.6 #245	Offensive rebound rate	37.0 #15
11.4 #319	Assists per game	13.2 #198
Defense
71.3 #86	Points allowed	78.8 #287
1.08 #172	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #281
52.4 #233	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #291
36.0 #301	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #336
19.1 #47	Turnovers forced	16.3 #201
68.6 #225	Defensive rebound rate	69.1 #196
6.8 #145	Steals per game	7.5 #83
2.7 #272	Blocks per game	4.1 #63

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Louisiana

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ LSU N Orleans82–78
L@ Nicholls60–68
Lvs Texas A&M-CC68–73
Lvs UT Rio Grande75–96
L@ East Texas A&M53–70

A week or more of rest.

Auburn

22-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Tulsa92–86
Wvs Illinois St88–66
Wvs Nevada75–69
Wvs Seattle U91–85
Wvs South Alabama78–67

A week or more of rest.

SE Louisiana Lions at Auburn Tigers

What could decide it: AUB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Auburn

Auburn has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SE Louisiana

Auburn