Coppin State Eagles at George Mason Patriots: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ETEagleBank Arena · at George Mason

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Coppin St and George Mason
COPP	This season	GMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 84–58 · win probability GMU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

COPP 1, GMU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GMUBig

COPP offense vs GMU defense

Offense 351st of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings

GMUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: COPP 45.9 and allows 55.4; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5

GMUBig

GMU offense vs COPP defense

Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 324th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

COPP has played the 313th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GMUBig

Three-pointers

COPP hits 30.7% and allows 38.3%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 35.2% and 35.2% of their shots

GMUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: COPP 38.5, GMU 41.1. Allowed: COPP 42.9, GMU 28.9

GMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COPP 30.4%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: COPP 65.3%, GMU 71.7%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: COPP plays 69.3 a game (159th fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points

COPPSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COPP 68%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: COPP 3, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GMUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COPP 22.3%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: COPP 17.6%, GMU 15.5%

GMUSmall

Home court

GMU at home. This season: GMU 0-0 at home, COPP 0-0 away

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GMU -25.5	—
Total	—	141.8	—
Projected score	—	COPP 58.1 · GMU 83.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GMU -15.0	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	COPP 25.7 · GMU 40.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COPP WWLLW	13-17	43%	9-10	—
GMU WWWLL	16-16	50%	11-8	—

Venue/role: COPP away; GMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COPP UOOOU	19-11	63%	6-24
GMU UUUUO	15-17	47%	22-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COPP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
GMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Coppin St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs BRAD	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ USF	L50–100LU
Nov 18	@ LAS	L59–87LO

George Mason

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs KC	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs BRAD	L67–75LO
Nov 18	vs NCCU	W75–58WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

COPP 0–2 GMUGMU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · GMU has won the last 2 meetings · COPP 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 20, 2024-25	COPP 55 @ GMU 93	GMU -28.5	GMU W
Dec 23, 2022-23	COPP 53 @ GMU 91	GMU -11.5	GMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Coppin St

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L W L L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O U U O O U O O U O O U O O U O O O O O U U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMD	L 61-83	+28.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 5	@LAS	L 59-87	+17.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 9	@JMU	L 70-84	+18.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@USF	L 50-100	+34.5	L −15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsCMU	L 59-82	+10.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsUSA	L 62-72	+18.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 22	@VCU	L 58-101	+32.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 25	@RID	W 68-65	+8.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 133
Nov 30	@L-MD	L 84-95	+9.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@WVU	L 49-91	+31.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	@LIB	L 50-92	+30.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 9	@JOES	L 65-87	+22.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 14	@RAD	L 77-107	+20.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 19	@NAVY	L 55-88	+20.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 22	@GTWN	L 67-97	+33.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsUMBC	L 59-93	+10.5	L −23.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 3	@DSU	W 53-51	+8.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNCCU	L 77-88	+6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	vsSCST	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	@UMES	L 67-70	+10.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 24	@NORF	L 76-103	+13.5	L −13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 31	vsMORG	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 2	vsHOW	L 53-72	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsDSU	W 65-47	+1.5	W +19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 14	@NCCU	W 58-56	+10.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 114
Feb 16	@SCST	W 59-57	+4.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 21	vsUMES	W 71-65	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 136
Feb 28	vsNORF	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@HOW	L 70-90	+19.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 160
Mar 5	@MORG	L 66-70	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 61-83

+6.5

LAS

L 59-87

−10.5

JMU

L 70-84

+4.5

USF

L 50-100

−15.5

CMU

L 59-82

−12.5

USA

L 62-72

+8.5

VCU

L 58-101

−10.5

RID

W 68-65

+11.5

L-MD

L 84-95

−1.5

WVU

L 49-91

−10.5

LIB

L 50-92

−11.5

JOES

L 65-87

+0.5

RAD

L 77-107

−9.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−12.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 59-93

−23.5

DSU

W 53-51

+10.5

NCCU

L 77-88

−4.5

SCST

L 72-74

−3.5

UMES

L 67-70

+7.5

NORF

L 76-103

−13.5

MORG

L 80-89

−5.5

HOW

L 53-72

−4.5

DSU

W 65-47

+19.5

NCCU

W 58-56

+12.5

SCST

W 59-57

+6.5

UMES

W 71-65

+9.5

NORF

L 69-75

−0.5

HOW

L 70-90

−0.5

MORG

L 66-70

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 61-83

+4.5

LAS

L 59-87

+6.5

JMU

L 70-84

+12.5

USF

L 50-100

−17.5

CMU

L 59-82

−1.5

USA

L 62-72

+0.5

VCU

L 58-101

+7.5

RID

W 68-65

−6.5

L-MD

L 84-95

+35.5

WVU

L 49-91

+5.5

LIB

L 50-92

−1.5

JOES

L 65-87

+5.5

RAD

L 77-107

+29.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−2.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+13.5

UMBC

L 59-93

+3.5

DSU

W 53-51

−35.5

NCCU

L 77-88

+21.5

SCST

L 72-74

+5.5

UMES

L 67-70

+3.5

NORF

L 76-103

+35.5

MORG

L 80-89

+13.5

HOW

L 53-72

−21.5

DSU

W 65-47

−20.5

NCCU

W 58-56

−29.5

SCST

W 59-57

−22.5

UMES

W 71-65

+7.5

NORF

L 69-75

+3.5

HOW

L 70-90

+19.5

MORG

L 66-70

−13.5

over 19under 11avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

George Mason

32 games played

Straight up

22-10

69% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1069%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W W L W L L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L L W W W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W W L W L L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O O U O U O U U O U O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWOF	W 70-46	-14.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 7	vsWIN	W 96-90	-9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 15	vsUNH	W 61-44	-24.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	vsJAX	W 79-57	-16.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsOHIO	W 92-69	-7.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsFAU	W 74-65	-4.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsJMU	W 82-66	-12.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 2	vsCOR	W 99-81	-10.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 6	@VT	L 62-73	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 13	vsODU	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 21	vsL-MD	W 86-79	-23.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 28	vsPENN	W 83-79	-16.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	@LAS	W 80-75	-8.5	L −3.5	134.5	O 155
Jan 3	vsURI	W 61-50	-6.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	@FOR	W 67-58	-5.5	W +3.5	134.5	U 125
Jan 10	vsVCU	W 86-80	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 166
Jan 13	@LUC	W 82-74	-11.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 19	vsGW	W 69-64	-1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	@URI	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 28	vsDAV	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@SBU	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsDUQ	L 65-71	-8.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsJOES	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 112
Feb 10	@RICH	L 70-82	-3.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 13	@GW	L 53-72	+3.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 18	vsDAY	L 67-82	-2.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 149
Feb 25	@JOES	L 63-81	-1.5	L −19.5	136.5	O 144
Feb 28	vsSBU	W 71-58	-3.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 3	@VCU	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 135
Mar 7	vsSLU	W 86-57	+7.5	W +36.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 12	vsSBU	L 57-63	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 17	vsLIB	L 71-77	-2.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

+9.5

WIN

W 96-90

−3.5

UNH

W 61-44

−7.5

JAX

W 79-57

+5.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+15.5

FAU

W 74-65

+4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+3.5

COR

W 99-81

+7.5

L 62-73

−6.5

ODU

W 73-61

−4.5

L-MD

W 86-79

−16.5

PENN

W 83-79

−12.5

LAS

W 80-75

−3.5

URI

W 61-50

+4.5

FOR

W 67-58

+3.5

VCU

W 86-80

+7.5

LUC

W 82-74

−3.5

W 69-64

+3.5

URI

L 65-74

−10.5

DAV

W 60-52

+1.5

SBU

W 77-73

+2.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−14.5

JOES

W 60-52

+1.5

RICH

L 70-82

−15.5

L 53-72

−15.5

DAY

L 67-82

−17.5

JOES

L 63-81

−19.5

SBU

W 71-58

+9.5

VCU

L 65-70

+4.5

SLU

W 86-57

+36.5

SBU

L 57-63

−8.5

LIB

L 71-77

−8.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

−24.5

WIN

W 96-90

+39.5

UNH

W 61-44

−39.5

JAX

W 79-57

−0.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+18.5

FAU

W 74-65

−4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+6.5

COR

W 99-81

+24.5

L 62-73

−9.5

ODU

W 73-61

−10.5

L-MD

W 86-79

+18.5

PENN

W 83-79

+15.5

LAS

W 80-75

+20.5

URI

W 61-50

−28.5

FOR

W 67-58

−9.5

VCU

W 86-80

+21.5

LUC

W 82-74

+15.5

W 69-64

−20.5

URI

L 65-74

+3.5

DAV

W 60-52

−22.5

SBU

W 77-73

+7.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−7.5

JOES

W 60-52

−27.5

RICH

L 70-82

+12.5

L 53-72

−24.5

DAY

L 67-82

+11.5

JOES

L 63-81

+7.5

SBU

W 71-58

−17.5

VCU

L 65-70

−12.5

SLU

W 86-57

−3.5

SBU

L 57-63

−23.5

LIB

L 71-77

+6.5

over 15under 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: Coppin St 0, George Mason 5, even 0

Coppin StBetterGeorge Mason

G H. Williams7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

GMUBig

G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91

G C. Sparrow5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 40

GMUSmall

G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71

G J. Piercy6.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 23

GMUSmall

G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39

F N. Lamizana6.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 18

GMUBig

F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

F T. Koenig5.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28

GMUBig

F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74

Coppin StBetterGeorge Mason

COPP offense351st of 366 · -12.8

GMUBig

GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1

COPP defense324th of 366 · -8.4

GMUBig

GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

GMUBig

Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players

GMUBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players

Bench-6.3 · 5 players

GMUBig

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCOPP betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Coppin St

Guards

H. Williams20 minC. Sparrow19 minJ. Piercy18 minB. Saunders16 minD. Lydner12 minJ. Brown5 min

Forwards

N. Lamizana19 minT. Koenig17 minT. Gapare16 min · TRE. TaylorNewL. LawalNewA. MyersNew

Centers

F. Aire9 min

George Mason

Guards

B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min

Forwards

E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew

Centers

J. Nnaji8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COPP64.3 #352

GMU72.9 #227

Points per possession

COPP0.93 #362

GMU1.13 #93

Pace (possessions)

COPP69.3 #159

GMU64.7 #351

Shooting

Effective FG%

COPP45.9 #350

GMU52.7 #113

3-point %

COPP30.7 #326

GMU33.3 #214

3-point attempt rate

COPP35.2 #273

GMU35.2 #270

Free throw rate

COPP38.5 #90

GMU41.1 #44

Possessions

Turnover rate

COPP22.3 #363

GMU15.8 #121

Offensive rebound rate

COPP30.4 #183

GMU31.3 #149

Assists per game

COPP11.4 #317

GMU12.6 #243

Defense

Points allowed

COPP81.0 #334

GMU68.0 #31

Points allowed per possession

COPP1.17 #342

GMU1.05 #89

Opponent effective FG%

COPP55.4 #339

GMU49.5 #83

Opponent 3-point %

COPP38.3 #360

GMU32.6 #91

Turnovers forced

COPP17.6 #118

GMU15.5 #254

Defensive rebound rate

COPP65.3 #333

GMU71.7 #79

Steals per game

COPP6.0 #233

GMU5.0 #334

Blocks per game

COPP3.5 #143

GMU3.0 #228

COPP		GMU
Scoring
64.3 #352	Points per game	72.9 #227
0.93 #362	Points per possession	1.13 #93
69.3 #159	Pace (possessions)	64.7 #351
Shooting
45.9 #350	Effective FG%	52.7 #113
30.7 #326	3-point %	33.3 #214
35.2 #273	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #270
38.5 #90	Free throw rate	41.1 #44
Possessions
22.3 #363	Turnover rate	15.8 #121
30.4 #183	Offensive rebound rate	31.3 #149
11.4 #317	Assists per game	12.6 #243
Defense
81.0 #334	Points allowed	68.0 #31
1.17 #342	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #89
55.4 #339	Opponent effective FG%	49.5 #83
38.3 #360	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #91
17.6 #118	Turnovers forced	15.5 #254
65.3 #333	Defensive rebound rate	71.7 #79
6.0 #233	Steals per game	5.0 #334
3.5 #143	Blocks per game	3.0 #228

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Coppin St

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Morgan St66–70
L@ Howard70–90
Lvs Norfolk St69–75
Wvs MD Eastern71–65
W@ SC State59–57

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Liberty71–77
Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
Wvs Saint Louis86–57
L@ VCU65–70
Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.

Coppin State Eagles at George Mason Patriots

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Coppin St

George Mason

George Mason has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Coppin St

George Mason