1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. ETSU @ NCSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at NC State Wolfpack

Lenovo Center · at NC State
#173ETSUETSU
@
#48NCSUNC State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ETSUThis seasonNCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCSU 85–66 · win probability NCSU 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

ETSU 2, NCSU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
ETSU has played the 309th-hardest schedule, NCSU the 51st. A record against a soft schedule means less
NCSUBig
ETSU offense vs NCSU defense
Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings
NCSUSmall
NCSU offense vs ETSU defense
Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ETSU plays 67.0 a game (279th fastest), NCSU 70.2 (103rd). Faster games mean more points
ETSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ETSU 28.3%, NCSU 28.2%. Defensive: ETSU 72.1%, NCSU 69.5%
NCSUSmall
Home court
NCSU at home. This season: NCSU 0-0 at home, ETSU 0-0 away
ETSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0; NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ETSU 15.2%, NCSU 13.1%. Forced: ETSU 18.4%, NCSU 18.2%
Even
Three-pointers
ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%; NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 37.8% and 43.4% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ETSU 35.0, NCSU 35.1. Allowed: ETSU 36.4, NCSU 36.9
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ETSU 29%, NCSU 28%. Transfers in: ETSU 5, NCSU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCSU -19.4—
Total—150.5—
Projected score—ETSU 65.6 · NCSU 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCSU -11.4—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreETSU 29.5 · NCSU 40.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: ETSU 0, NC State 4, even 1
ETSUBetterNC State
G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29
NCSUBig
G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83
G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34
NCSUBig
G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24
NCSUBig
G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90
G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
NCSUBig
F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95
F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49
Even
F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
ETSUBetterNC State
ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9
NCSUBig
NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3
ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9
NCSUSmall
NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players
NCSUBig
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
NCSUBig
Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
NCSUBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestETSU betterNCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
ETSU
Guards
B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew
Forwards
J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew
NC State
Guards
P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR
Forwards
K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ETSUNCSU
Scoring
76.8 #121Points per game83.2 #25
1.15 #59Points per possession1.18 #30
67.0 #279Pace (possessions)70.2 #103
Shooting
55.3 #33Effective FG%55.0 #35
34.7 #1323-point %38.8 #6
37.8 #2163-point attempt rate43.4 #104
35.0 #180Free throw rate35.1 #175
Possessions
15.2 #79Turnover rate13.1 #7
28.3 #252Offensive rebound rate28.2 #258
13.9 #154Assists per game15.4 #70
Defense
70.1 #61Points allowed76.3 #224
1.04 #77Points allowed per possession1.09 #186
51.0 #161Opponent effective FG%52.7 #256
32.9 #110Opponent 3-point %35.5 #281
18.4 #79Turnovers forced18.2 #90
72.1 #64Defensive rebound rate69.5 #181
8.6 #16Steals per game8.1 #37
3.3 #180Blocks per game3.4 #159
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman61–76
  • Wvs W Carolina69–67
  • Wvs The Citadel83–76
  • L@ Mercer76–82
  • Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas66–68
  • Lvs Virginia74–81
  • Wvs Pitt98–88
  • Lvs Stanford84–85
  • Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.