1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 3
  3. NAU @ UNLV
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 3

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at UNLV Rebels

Thomas & Mack Center · at UNLV
#321NAUN Arizona
@
#98UNLVUNLV
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NAUThis seasonUNLV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNLV 84–64 · win probability UNLV 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNLV has more of the edges

NAU 0, UNLV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNLVBig
NAU offense vs UNLV defense
Offense 330th of 366 against a defense 114th, on the model’s ratings
UNLVBig
UNLV offense vs NAU defense
Offense 90th of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NAU has played the 275th-hardest schedule, UNLV the 87th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NAU plays 65.5 a game (330th fastest), UNLV 71.3 (57th). Faster games mean more points
UNLVSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NAU 23.3%, UNLV 30.2%. Defensive: NAU 66.6%, UNLV 68.0%
UNLVSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9; UNLV 53.5 and allows 52.3
UNLVSmall
Home court
UNLV at home. This season: UNLV 0-0 at home, NAU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%; UNLV hits 35.2% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 36.6% and 36.4% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NAU 31.8, UNLV 40.6. Allowed: NAU 32.7, UNLV 44.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NAU 16.0%, UNLV 17.1%. Forced: NAU 16.6%, UNLV 17.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NAU 40%, UNLV 43%. Transfers in: NAU 3, UNLV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNLV -20.1—
Total—148.2—
Projected score—NAU 64 · UNLV 84.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNLV -11.8—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreNAU 28.7 · UNLV 40.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UNLV has the better starters

Position by position: N Arizona 0, UNLV 4, even 1
N ArizonaBetterUNLV
G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42
UNLVSmall
G D. Williams15.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 64
G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50
UNLVBig
G A. Storr TR15.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97
G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7
UNLVSmall
G I. Williamson8.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Jones11.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 91
F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
UNLVBig
F M. Thomas TR10.8 pts · 8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
N ArizonaBetterUNLV
NAU offense330th of 366 · -10.7
UNLVBig
UNLV defense114th of 366 · -1.5
NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4
UNLVBig
UNLV offense90th of 366 · -0.2
Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players
UNLVBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
UNLVBig
Frontcourt+4.3 · 2 players
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
NAUSmall
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNAU betterUNLV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Arizona
Guards
R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min
Forwards
D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew
Centers
N. KeutchaNew
UNLV
Guards
D. Williams33 minA. Storr26 min · TRI. Williamson23 minS. Mack16 min · TRC. Miles14 min · TRJ. Cunningham3 min
Forwards
T. Jones27 minM. Thomas27 min · TRT. Harris13 min · TRM. Loum11 min · TRJ. KissNew
Centers
J. Foumena10 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NAUUNLV
Scoring
68.1 #311Points per game78.6 #88
1.04 #271Points per possession1.10 #134
65.5 #330Pace (possessions)71.3 #57
Shooting
51.7 #161Effective FG%53.5 #81
35.6 #793-point %35.2 #102
36.6 #2363-point attempt rate36.4 #243
31.8 #260Free throw rate40.6 #51
Possessions
16.0 #140Turnover rate17.1 #209
23.3 #348Offensive rebound rate30.2 #189
12.5 #251Assists per game14.1 #137
Defense
77.6 #257Points allowed79.3 #306
1.18 #351Points allowed per possession1.11 #250
56.9 #355Opponent effective FG%52.3 #231
38.7 #362Opponent 3-point %35.2 #259
16.6 #181Turnovers forced17.4 #127
66.6 #305Defensive rebound rate68.0 #256
6.3 #194Steals per game7.3 #102
2.7 #287Blocks per game4.7 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho St65–73
  • Lvs Montana St65–76
  • L@ E Washington57–88
  • L@ Idaho58–78
  • L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.

UNLV

17-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa66–77
  • W@ UC Irvine75–72
  • Lvs Utah State60–80
  • Wvs Wyoming73–70
  • L@ San Diego St86–89

A week or more of rest.