1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 3
  3. UNF @ CBU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 3

North Florida Ospreys at California Baptist Lancers

Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center · at CA Baptist
#333UNFNorth Florida
@
#203CBUCA Baptist
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNFThis seasonCBU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CBU 83–71 · win probability CBU 86%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CBU has more of the edges

UNF 1, CBU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CBUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNF 25.2%, CBU 37.5%. Defensive: UNF 62.4%, CBU 72.8%
CBUBig
CBU offense vs UNF defense
Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings
CBUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNF 17.8%, CBU 18.0%. Forced: UNF 12.8%, CBU 16.9%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UNF plays 72.3 a game (31st fastest), CBU 68.3 (217th). Faster games mean more points
CBUSmall
Three-pointers
UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%; CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%. Threes are 51.7% and 32.0% of their shots
CBUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3; CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3
CBUSmall
Home court
CBU at home. This season: CBU 0-0 at home, UNF 0-0 away
CBUSmall
UNF offense vs CBU defense
Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings
UNFSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNF 45%, CBU 18%. Transfers in: UNF 3, CBU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
UNF has played the 168th-hardest schedule, CBU the 202nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNF 28.8, CBU 35.9. Allowed: UNF 31.4, CBU 36.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CBU -12.3—
Total—153.3—
Projected score—UNF 70.5 · CBU 82.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCBU -7.2—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreUNF 32.2 · CBU 39.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

CA Baptist has the better starters

Position by position: North Florida 0, CA Baptist 1, even 4
North FloridaBetterCA Baptist
G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38
CBUSmall
G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67
G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
Even
G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
No call
G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21
No call
F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8
No call
F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
North FloridaBetterCA Baptist
UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0
Even
CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0
UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0
CBUSmall
CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5
Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players
CBUBig
Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUNF betterCBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Florida
Guards
K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min
Forwards
A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew
CA Baptist
Guards
E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew
Forwards
R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew
Centers
M. KovacNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNFCBU
Scoring
77.1 #112Points per game72.7 #230
1.06 #218Points per possession1.07 #209
72.3 #31Pace (possessions)68.3 #217
Shooting
52.9 #106Effective FG%48.3 #308
35.0 #1173-point %33.4 #200
51.7 #73-point attempt rate32.0 #330
28.8 #333Free throw rate35.9 #154
Possessions
17.8 #261Turnover rate18.0 #270
25.2 #335Offensive rebound rate37.5 #13
13.4 #185Assists per game10.2 #355
Defense
89.6 #365Points allowed67.6 #28
1.24 #364Points allowed per possession0.99 #18
56.3 #349Opponent effective FG%46.3 #16
35.1 #253Opponent 3-point %29.5 #5
12.8 #360Turnovers forced16.9 #159
62.4 #361Defensive rebound rate72.8 #41
4.6 #352Steals per game5.5 #296
1.4 #364Blocks per game2.9 #253
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Georgia85–93
  • Lvs Jacksonville61–85
  • Wvs FGCU76–70
  • L@ Stetson71–76
  • Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kansas60–68
  • Wvs Utah Valley63–61
  • Wvs Utah Tech86–72
  • W@ Southern Utah82–75
  • Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.