Cal State Fullerton Titans at San Diego State Aztecs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 3, 10:00 PM ETViejas Arena · at San Diego St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Fullerton and San Diego St
CSUF	This season	SDSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDSU 87–66 · win probability SDSU 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges

CSUF 1, SDSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SDSUBig

SDSU offense vs CSUF defense

Offense 86th of 366 against a defense 344th, on the model’s ratings

SDSUBig

CSUF offense vs SDSU defense

Offense 272nd of 366 against a defense 70th, on the model’s ratings

SDSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CSUF 51.4 and allows 54.3; SDSU 52.7 and allows 48.2

Context

Schedule so far

CSUF has played the 164th-hardest schedule, SDSU the 80th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CSUFSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CSUF 15.3%, SDSU 17.2%. Forced: CSUF 19.4%, SDSU 20.2%

SDSUSmall

Home court

SDSU at home. This season: SDSU 0-0 at home, CSUF 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: CSUF plays 75.5 a game (3rd fastest), SDSU 70.6 (89th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CSUF 39%, SDSU 20%. Transfers in: CSUF 1, SDSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CSUF 37.8, SDSU 39.0. Allowed: CSUF 35.3, SDSU 38.5

Even

Three-pointers

CSUF hits 34.2% and allows 34.0%; SDSU hits 34.5% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 43.1% and 33.8% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CSUF 24.6%, SDSU 29.5%. Defensive: CSUF 71.7%, SDSU 68.9%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SDSU -20.4	—
Total	—	153.0	—
Projected score	—	CSUF 66.3 · SDSU 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDSU -12.0	—
1H total	71.5	—
1H projected score	CSUF 29.8 · SDSU 41.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUF WWWWL	19-12	61%	8-7	—
SDSU LLWLL	15-17	47%	7-8	—

Venue/role: CSUF away; SDSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUF OUUUU	13-18	42%	16-16
SDSU OOUUU	15-17	47%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUF	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
SDSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Fullerton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ SDAK	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ UCLA	L47–80LU
Nov 22	@ PRST	No recent meeting

San Diego St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs COLO	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs BCU	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs NMSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CSUF 0–3 SDSUSDSU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · SDSU has won the last 3 meetings · CSUF 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2023-24	CSUF 57 @ SDSU 83	SDSU -15.5	SDSU W
Nov 7, 2022-23	CSUF 57 @ SDSU 80	SDSU -23.5	CSUF W
Dec 8, 2021-22	CSUF 56 @ SDSU 66	SDSU -12.5	CSUF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fullerton

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L L L L W L W L L W L L W L W W L L W W L W W W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

W L L L W W W L–W W L W L W W L L W W L W W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1842%

O U U O O O U O–O O O O U U U U U U U U U U O U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WYO	L 82-92	+15.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 10	@CAL	L 65-93	+22.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 15	vsPAC	L 73-85	+6.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 21	@PORT	L 85-103	+6.5	L −11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsSTMN	W 88-80	+11.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	vsUNCO	L 93-97	+8.5	W +4.5	164.5	O 190
Nov 29	vsPEPP	W 83-69	-1.5	W +12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 4	vsCP	L 91-94	-1.5	L −4.5	177.5	O 185
Dec 6	@HAW	L 59-69	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@DEN	W 105-86	+3.5	W +22.5	165.5	O 191
Dec 21	@OKST	L 89-94	+19.5	W +14.5	176.5	O 183
Dec 28	@SMU	L 63-110	+21.5	L −25.5	170.5	O 173
Jan 1	vsUCSB	W 95-84	+3.5	W +14.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsUCI	L 64-86	+3.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 150
Jan 8	@UCSD	W 88-71	+13.5	W +30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	vsCSUN	W 86-79	-1.5	W +5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCD	L 69-74	+3.5	L −1.5	166.5	U 143
Jan 17	@UCR	L 72-81	-3.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 153
Jan 22	vsLBSU	W 71-61	-3.5	W +6.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	@CP	W 93-78	-1.5	W +13.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 31	@UCSB	L 69-83	+8.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 152
Feb 5	vsUCR	W 78-72	-5.5	W +0.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 7	vsCSUB	W 82-66	-9.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 12	@LBSU	W 86-82	+2.5	W +6.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 14	@UCI	L 65-86	+7.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 19	vsUCD	W 93-92	-1.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 185
Feb 21	@CSUB	W 88-80	-5.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 168
Feb 28	vsHAW	L 85-87	+3.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsUCSD	W 75-71	+2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@CSUN	W 90-77	+5.5	W +18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCD	W 82-70	-1.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 152
Mar 13	vsHAW	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	157.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+5.5

CAL

L 65-93

−5.5

PAC

L 73-85

−5.5

PORT

L 85-103

−11.5

STMN

W 88-80

+19.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+4.5

PEPP

W 83-69

+12.5

L 91-94

−4.5

DEN

W 105-86

+22.5

OKST

L 89-94

+14.5

SMU

L 63-110

−25.5

UCSB

W 95-84

+14.5

UCI

L 64-86

−18.5

UCSD

W 88-71

+30.5

CSUN

W 86-79

+5.5

UCD

L 69-74

−1.5

UCR

L 72-81

−12.5

LBSU

W 71-61

+6.5

W 93-78

+13.5

UCSB

L 69-83

−5.5

UCR

W 78-72

+0.5

CSUB

W 82-66

+6.5

LBSU

W 86-82

+6.5

UCI

L 65-86

−13.5

UCD

W 93-92

−0.5

CSUB

W 88-80

+2.5

HAW

L 85-87

+1.5

UCSD

W 75-71

+6.5

CSUN

W 90-77

+18.5

UCD

W 82-70

+10.5

HAW

L 63-78

−9.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+19.5

CAL

L 65-93

−4.5

PAC

L 73-85

−1.5

PORT

L 85-103

+23.5

STMN

W 88-80

+5.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+25.5

PEPP

W 83-69

−9.5

L 91-94

+7.5

DEN

W 105-86

+25.5

OKST

L 89-94

+6.5

SMU

L 63-110

+2.5

UCSB

W 95-84

+23.5

UCI

L 64-86

−10.5

UCSD

W 88-71

−7.5

CSUN

W 86-79

−8.5

UCD

L 69-74

−23.5

UCR

L 72-81

−4.5

LBSU

W 71-61

−28.5

W 93-78

−2.5

UCSB

L 69-83

−1.5

UCR

W 78-72

−6.5

CSUB

W 82-66

−9.5

LBSU

W 86-82

+11.5

UCI

L 65-86

−3.5

UCD

W 93-92

+28.5

CSUB

W 88-80

+7.5

HAW

L 85-87

+13.5

UCSD

W 75-71

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-77

−3.5

UCD

W 82-70

−3.5

HAW

L 63-78

−16.5

over 13under 18avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego St

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W L L W L W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L W L W W L L W L W W W L L W W W L W W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U U O U O O U O O U O O U U U O U O U U U O U U O O O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsORE	W 97-80	+2.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsBAY	L 81-91	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 172
Dec 3	vsUVU	W 77-66	-8.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 10	vsLAM	W 89-71	-17.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsAF	W 81-58	-24.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 139
Dec 20	vsARIZ	L 45-68	+13.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 113
Dec 30	@SJSU	W 81-68	-11.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsBOIS	W 110-107	-4.5	L −1.5	138.5	O 217
Jan 6	@NEV	W 73-68	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsFRES	W 71-52	-14.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 123
Jan 14	@WYO	W 74-57	-1.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	vsUNM	W 83-79	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	@GCU	L 69-70	-1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 139
Jan 24	@UNLV	W 82-71	-3.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 28	vsCSU	W 73-50	-9.5	W +13.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 31	@USU	L 66-71	+6.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 3	vsWYO	W 72-63	-12.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 7	@AF	W 88-54	-22.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsNEV	W 71-57	-7.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	vsGCU	L 63-73	-7.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 21	@CSU	L 74-83	-3.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 157
Feb 25	vsUSU	W 89-72	+1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 28	@UNM	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 3	@BOIS	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 163
Mar 6	vsUNLV	W 89-86	-9.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 175
Mar 12	vsCSU	W 71-62	-6.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 13	vsUNM	W 64-62	-2.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 14	vsUSU	L 62-73	+2.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

ORE

W 97-80

+19.5

BAY

L 81-91

−7.5

UVU

W 77-66

+2.5

LAM

W 89-71

+0.5

W 81-58

−1.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−9.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+1.5

BOIS

W 110-107

−1.5

NEV

W 73-68

+6.5

FRES

W 71-52

+4.5

WYO

W 74-57

+15.5

UNM

W 83-79

−1.5

GCU

L 69-70

−2.5

UNLV

W 82-71

+7.5

CSU

W 73-50

+13.5

USU

L 66-71

+1.5

WYO

W 72-63

−3.5

W 88-54

+11.5

NEV

W 71-57

+6.5

GCU

L 63-73

−17.5

CSU

L 74-83

−12.5

USU

W 89-72

+18.5

UNM

L 76-81

−3.5

BOIS

L 77-86

−7.5

UNLV

W 89-86

−6.5

CSU

W 71-62

+2.5

UNM

W 64-62

−0.5

USU

L 62-73

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

ORE

W 97-80

+35.5

BAY

L 81-91

+23.5

UVU

W 77-66

−1.5

LAM

W 89-71

+24.5

W 81-58

+3.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−40.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+7.5

BOIS

W 110-107

+78.5

NEV

W 73-68

−0.5

FRES

W 71-52

−23.5

WYO

W 74-57

−17.5

UNM

W 83-79

+13.5

GCU

L 69-70

−6.5

UNLV

W 82-71

+3.5

CSU

W 73-50

−16.5

USU

L 66-71

−10.5

WYO

W 72-63

−6.5

W 88-54

+2.5

NEV

W 71-57

−11.5

GCU

L 63-73

−3.5

CSU

L 74-83

+17.5

USU

W 89-72

+14.5

UNM

L 76-81

+6.5

BOIS

L 77-86

+19.5

UNLV

W 89-86

+21.5

CSU

W 71-62

−9.5

UNM

W 64-62

−24.5

USU

L 62-73

−10.5

over 15under 17avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San Diego St has the better starters

Position by position: Fullerton 0, San Diego St 3, even 2

FullertonBetterSan Diego St

G C. Williams9.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 39

SDSUSmall

G C. Gladden TR14.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 67

G B. Nunn5 pts · 2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

SDSUBig

G N. Anderson TR16 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95

G D. White2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0

SDSUBig

G I. Sy TR10 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 57

G T. Jenkins TR0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Harrington7.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 63

F K. De Luna4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 7

No call

F B. Cherry TR15.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

FullertonBetterSan Diego St

CSUF offense272nd of 366 · -8.3

SDSUBig

SDSU defense70th of 366 · +0.8

CSUF defense344th of 366 · -9.2

SDSUBig

SDSU offense86th of 366 · +0.3

Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players

SDSUBig

Backcourt+3.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.1 · 1 player

SDSUSmall

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-0.1 · 1 player

SDSUSmall

Bench+0.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestCSUF betterSDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Fullerton

Guards

C. Williams27 minB. Nunn19 minD. White13 minT. Jenkins3 min · TRM. Quinlan2 minD. McConnellNew

Forwards

K. De Luna18 minR. ReynoldsNew

San Diego St

Guards

C. Gladden34 min · TRN. Anderson30 min · TRI. Sy28 min · TRE. Harrington21 minR. Gonzales2 minL. DavisNew

Forwards

B. Cherry29 min · TRT. Simmons14 minT. Majak3 minS. MashebinuNewL. SkoricNewL. VinciniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CSUF80.3 #60

SDSU76.8 #120

Points per possession

CSUF1.07 #208

SDSU1.09 #159

Pace (possessions)

CSUF75.5 #3

SDSU70.6 #89

Shooting

Effective FG%

CSUF51.4 #180

SDSU52.7 #116

3-point %

CSUF34.2 #162

SDSU34.5 #144

3-point attempt rate

CSUF43.1 #108

SDSU33.8 #301

Free throw rate

CSUF37.8 #107

SDSU39.0 #81

Possessions

Turnover rate

CSUF15.3 #82

SDSU17.2 #224

Offensive rebound rate

CSUF24.6 #345

SDSU29.5 #222

Assists per game

CSUF15.0 #85

SDSU14.6 #110

Defense

Points allowed

CSUF82.2 #342

SDSU71.3 #84

Points allowed per possession

CSUF1.08 #181

SDSU1.01 #31

Opponent effective FG%

CSUF54.3 #307

SDSU48.2 #41

Opponent 3-point %

CSUF34.0 #185

SDSU33.6 #164

Turnovers forced

CSUF19.4 #34

SDSU20.2 #19

Defensive rebound rate

CSUF71.7 #80

SDSU68.9 #208

Steals per game

CSUF7.9 #45

SDSU7.7 #62

Blocks per game

CSUF2.8 #258

SDSU4.6 #27

CSUF		SDSU
Scoring
80.3 #60	Points per game	76.8 #120
1.07 #208	Points per possession	1.09 #159
75.5 #3	Pace (possessions)	70.6 #89
Shooting
51.4 #180	Effective FG%	52.7 #116
34.2 #162	3-point %	34.5 #144
43.1 #108	3-point attempt rate	33.8 #301
37.8 #107	Free throw rate	39.0 #81
Possessions
15.3 #82	Turnover rate	17.2 #224
24.6 #345	Offensive rebound rate	29.5 #222
15.0 #85	Assists per game	14.6 #110
Defense
82.2 #342	Points allowed	71.3 #84
1.08 #181	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #31
54.3 #307	Opponent effective FG%	48.2 #41
34.0 #185	Opponent 3-point %	33.6 #164
19.4 #34	Turnovers forced	20.2 #19
71.7 #80	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #208
7.9 #45	Steals per game	7.7 #62
2.8 #258	Blocks per game	4.6 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fullerton

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hawai'i63–78
Wvs UC Davis82–70
W@ CSU Northridge90–77
Wvs UC San Diego75–71
Lvs Hawai'i85–87

A week or more of rest.

San Diego St

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah State62–73
Wvs New Mexico64–62
Wvs Colorado St71–62
Wvs UNLV89–86
L@ Boise St77–86

A week or more of rest.

Cal State Fullerton Titans at San Diego State Aztecs

What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Fullerton

San Diego St

San Diego St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Fullerton

San Diego St