Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at New Mexico Lobos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 AM ETThe Pit · at New Mexico

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Arizona and New Mexico
NAU	This season	UNM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNM 86–63 · win probability UNM 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

NAU 0, UNM 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNMBig

NAU offense vs UNM defense

Offense 330th of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings

UNMBig

UNM offense vs NAU defense

Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings

UNMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NAU 23.3%, UNM 30.6%. Defensive: NAU 66.6%, UNM 72.3%

Context

Schedule so far

NAU has played the 275th-hardest schedule, UNM the 97th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9; UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5

UNMBig

Three-pointers

NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%; UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 36.6% and 41.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NAU plays 65.5 a game (330th fastest), UNM 70.7 (87th). Faster games mean more points

UNMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NAU 16.0%, UNM 14.9%. Forced: NAU 16.6%, UNM 19.0%

UNMSmall

Home court

UNM at home. This season: UNM 0-0 at home, NAU 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NAU 31.8, UNM 35.8. Allowed: NAU 32.7, UNM 33.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NAU 40%, UNM 42%. Transfers in: NAU 3, UNM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNM -23.4	—
Total	—	148.7	—
Projected score	—	NAU 62.7 · UNM 86

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNM -13.8	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	NAU 27.9 · UNM 41.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAU WLLLL	14-15	48%	6-8	—
UNM WWWWL	20-16	56%	11-8	—

Venue/role: NAU away; UNM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAU OUUUU	11-18	38%	7-22
UNM UOUUU	23-13	64%	25-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
UNM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ ARIZ	L49–84WU
Nov 13	@ UK	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ CP	W93–87WO

New Mexico

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs LR	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ SCU	W98–71WO
Nov 21	@ WICH	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Arizona

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L W W L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W W L W L L W L L W L W L W L W W L W L L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U O O O U O U O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 3	vsSDST	L 62-75	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	@NDSU	L 68-69	+12.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 9	@ASU	L 48-73	+16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	@USD	L 69-78	+4.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 18	vsSUU	W 65-57	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 122
Dec 21	@UIW	L 66-90	+6.5	L −17.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 1	@MONT	L 64-78	+5.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 3	@MTST	L 68-77	+10.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 8	vsWEB	L 65-78	+2.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 143
Jan 10	vsIDST	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SAC	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 152
Jan 17	@PRST	L 52-63	+11.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 115
Jan 19	vsMONT	L 72-98	+3.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsUNCO	W 81-77	+6.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Jan 29	vsEWU	W 92-86	+2.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 178
Jan 31	vsIDHO	L 62-79	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 5	@IDST	W 79-73	+8.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WEB	L 53-72	+7.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 125
Feb 12	vsPRST	L 68-77	+6.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 14	vsSAC	W 79-74	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	@UNCO	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 155
Feb 26	@IDHO	L 58-78	+10.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 28	@EWU	L 57-88	+9.5	L −21.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 2	vsMTST	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsIDST	L 65-73	+4.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

L 62-75

−10.5

NDSU

L 68-69

+11.5

ASU

L 48-73

−8.5

USD

L 69-78

−4.5

SUU

W 65-57

+2.5

UIW

L 66-90

−17.5

MONT

L 64-78

−8.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−10.5

IDST

L 79-81

+2.5

SAC

L 69-83

−12.5

PRST

L 52-63

+0.5

MONT

L 72-98

−22.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+10.5

EWU

W 92-86

+8.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−11.5

IDST

W 79-73

+14.5

WEB

L 53-72

−11.5

PRST

L 68-77

−2.5

SAC

W 79-74

+2.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+12.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−21.5

MTST

L 65-76

−5.5

IDST

L 65-73

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

SDST

L 62-75

−11.5

NDSU

L 68-69

−10.5

ASU

L 48-73

−33.5

USD

L 69-78

−2.5

SUU

W 65-57

−28.5

UIW

L 66-90

+15.5

MONT

L 64-78

−7.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−6.5

IDST

L 79-81

+20.5

SAC

L 69-83

−1.5

PRST

L 52-63

−25.5

MONT

L 72-98

+23.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+7.5

EWU

W 92-86

+32.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−5.5

IDST

W 79-73

+10.5

WEB

L 53-72

−25.5

PRST

L 68-77

+8.5

SAC

W 79-74

−1.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+3.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−1.5

MTST

L 65-76

−1.5

IDST

L 65-73

−4.5

over 11under 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Mexico

36 games played

Straight up

25-11

69% wins

Against the spread

20-16

56% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

23-13

64% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1169%

W W W L L W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L L W W W L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1656%

L W L L L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

23-1364%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O O O O O O U O U O U O O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsETAM	W 76-54	-22.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 8	vsUTA	W 74-56	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsUCR	W 82-68	-19.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	@NMSU	L 68-76	-3.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 20	vsNEB	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsMSST	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 26	vsALST	W 93-87	-19.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 6	vsSCU	W 98-71	-1.5	W +25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 10	@VCU	W 81-78	+8.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 159
Dec 14	vsFGCU	W 75-59	-15.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 134
Dec 20	vsSJSU	W 88-65	-16.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	@BOIS	L 53-62	+5.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsWYO	W 78-58	-7.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 6	@CSU	W 80-70	-1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 10	@AF	W 91-49	-16.5	W +25.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 13	vsGCU	W 87-64	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 17	@SDSU	L 79-83	+5.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	vsFRES	W 83-74	-15.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsNEV	W 80-73	-8.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	@UNLV	W 89-61	-3.5	W +24.5	155.5	U 150
Jan 31	@SJSU	W 90-80	-15.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 4	vsUSU	L 66-86	-1.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 7	vsBOIS	L 90-91	-4.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 11	@GCU	W 70-64	+1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 134
Feb 17	vsAF	W 98-61	-28.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Feb 21	@FRES	W 80-78	-9.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@NEV	L 60-67	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	vsSDSU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 4	vsCSU	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	150.5	O 156
Mar 7	@USU	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsSJSU	W 93-77	-16.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsSDSU	L 62-64	+2.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsSHSU	W 107-83	-11.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 190
Mar 22	vsGW	W 86-61	-6.5	W +18.5	161.5	U 147
Mar 24	vsJOES	W 84-69	-10.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 153
Apr 2	vsTLSA	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−0.5

UTA

W 74-56

+4.5

UCR

W 82-68

−5.5

NMSU

L 68-76

−11.5

NEB

L 72-84

−3.5

MSST

W 80-78

+8.5

ALST

W 93-87

−13.5

SCU

W 98-71

+25.5

VCU

W 81-78

+11.5

FGCU

W 75-59

+0.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+6.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−3.5

WYO

W 78-58

+12.5

CSU

W 80-70

+8.5

W 91-49

+25.5

GCU

W 87-64

+16.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+1.5

FRES

W 83-74

−6.5

NEV

W 80-73

−1.5

UNLV

W 89-61

+24.5

SJSU

W 90-80

−5.5

USU

L 66-86

−21.5

BOIS

L 90-91

−5.5

GCU

W 70-64

+7.5

W 98-61

+8.5

FRES

W 80-78

−7.5

NEV

L 60-67

−5.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+3.5

CSU

L 74-82

−16.5

USU

L 90-94

+3.5

SJSU

W 93-77

−0.5

SDSU

L 62-64

+0.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+12.5

W 86-61

+18.5

JOES

W 84-69

+4.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−7.5

covered 20didn’t cover 16avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−13.5

UTA

W 74-56

−15.5

UCR

W 82-68

+8.5

NMSU

L 68-76

+4.5

NEB

L 72-84

+4.5

MSST

W 80-78

+6.5

ALST

W 93-87

+31.5

SCU

W 98-71

+15.5

VCU

W 81-78

+1.5

FGCU

W 75-59

−25.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+0.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−31.5

WYO

W 78-58

−15.5

CSU

W 80-70

+6.5

W 91-49

+1.5

GCU

W 87-64

+4.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+13.5

FRES

W 83-74

+5.5

NEV

W 80-73

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-61

−5.5

SJSU

W 90-80

+21.5

USU

L 66-86

−4.5

BOIS

L 90-91

+28.5

GCU

W 70-64

−14.5

W 98-61

+10.5

FRES

W 80-78

+1.5

NEV

L 60-67

−21.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+6.5

CSU

L 74-82

+5.5

USU

L 90-94

+28.5

SJSU

W 93-77

+15.5

SDSU

L 62-64

−24.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+27.5

W 86-61

−14.5

JOES

W 84-69

−2.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−18.5

over 23under 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: N Arizona 0, New Mexico 4, even 1

N ArizonaBetterNew Mexico

G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42

UNMBig

G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50

UNMSmall

G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73

G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7

UNMBig

G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54

G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93

F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

UNMBig

F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

N ArizonaBetterNew Mexico

NAU offense330th of 366 · -10.7

UNMBig

UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9

NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4

UNMBig

UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

UNMBig

Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

UNMSmall

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

Even

Bench+0.9 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestNAU betterUNM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Arizona

Guards

R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min

Forwards

D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew

Centers

N. KeutchaNew

New Mexico

Guards

J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew

Forwards

T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NAU68.1 #311

UNM80.8 #52

Points per possession

NAU1.04 #271

UNM1.14 #70

Pace (possessions)

NAU65.5 #330

UNM70.7 #87

Shooting

Effective FG%

NAU51.7 #161

UNM53.5 #82

3-point %

NAU35.6 #79

UNM35.6 #83

3-point attempt rate

NAU36.6 #236

UNM41.9 #136

Free throw rate

NAU31.8 #260

UNM35.8 #160

Possessions

Turnover rate

NAU16.0 #140

UNM14.9 #59

Offensive rebound rate

NAU23.3 #348

UNM30.6 #176

Assists per game

NAU12.5 #251

UNM14.8 #104

Defense

Points allowed

NAU77.6 #257

UNM71.6 #96

Points allowed per possession

NAU1.18 #351

UNM1.01 #36

Opponent effective FG%

NAU56.9 #355

UNM49.5 #84

Opponent 3-point %

NAU38.7 #362

UNM30.5 #20

Turnovers forced

NAU16.6 #181

UNM19.0 #50

Defensive rebound rate

NAU66.6 #305

UNM72.3 #57

Steals per game

NAU6.3 #194

UNM7.9 #43

Blocks per game

NAU2.7 #287

UNM2.7 #274

NAU		UNM
Scoring
68.1 #311	Points per game	80.8 #52
1.04 #271	Points per possession	1.14 #70
65.5 #330	Pace (possessions)	70.7 #87
Shooting
51.7 #161	Effective FG%	53.5 #82
35.6 #79	3-point %	35.6 #83
36.6 #236	3-point attempt rate	41.9 #136
31.8 #260	Free throw rate	35.8 #160
Possessions
16.0 #140	Turnover rate	14.9 #59
23.3 #348	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #176
12.5 #251	Assists per game	14.8 #104
Defense
77.6 #257	Points allowed	71.6 #96
1.18 #351	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #36
56.9 #355	Opponent effective FG%	49.5 #84
38.7 #362	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #20
16.6 #181	Turnovers forced	19.0 #50
66.6 #305	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #57
6.3 #194	Steals per game	7.9 #43
2.7 #287	Blocks per game	2.7 #274

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Idaho St65–73
Lvs Montana St65–76
L@ E Washington57–88
L@ Idaho58–78
L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa69–74
Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
Wvs G Washington86–61
Wvs Sam Houston107–83
Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at New Mexico Lobos

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Arizona

New Mexico

New Mexico has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Arizona

New Mexico