Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Cavaliers
IND	This season	CLE
2-5	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	2-4
3-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 123–111 · win probability CLE 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

IND 0, CLE 7 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs IND defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, CLE 28.9. Allowed: IND 32.1, CLE 23.2

CLEBig

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 43.1% and 43.6% of their shots

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, CLE 73.9%

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, IND 2-2 away

CLESmall

IND offense vs CLE defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: IND 14.9%, CLE 14.1%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: IND away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ NY	L110–136LO
Nov 23	vs OKC	W117–114WO
Nov 27	vs PHI	L109–114WU

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	@ CHI	W115–110LU
Nov 25	@ NY	L93–130LO
Nov 29	vs MIA	W149–128WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

IND 10–15 CLECLE leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 4 meetings · IND 15-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	IND 108 @ CLE 117	CLE -16.5	IND W
Jan 6, 2025-26	CLE 120 @ IND 116	IND +6.5	IND W
Dec 1, 2025-26	CLE 135 @ IND 119	IND +4.5	CLE W
Nov 21, 2025-26	IND 109 @ CLE 120	CLE -13.5	IND W
May 13, 2024-25	IND 114 @ CLE 105	CLE -8.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 2, Cavaliers 3, even 0

PacersBetterCavaliers

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDSmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

CLEBig

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

CLESmall

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

INDBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

PacersBetterCavaliers

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Even

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

CLE6.3 #6

IND		CLE
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.14 #7
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
34.1 #18	3-point %	37.0 #8
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
28.0 #7	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
6.9 #27	Steals per game	7.8 #22
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Cavaliers