Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 12, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Suns
CHA	This season	PHX
3-4	Record	1-3
3-4	ATS	0-4
1-6	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 110–108 · win probability PHX 57%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 217.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CHA 3, PHX 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, PHX 65.1%

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, PHX 17.1%

CHABig

PHX offense vs CHA defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

PHXBig

CHA offense vs PHX defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Recent form

Last 4: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 50.8% and 45.1% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, PHX 22.8. Allowed: CHA 28.4, PHX 31.1

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ LAC	L109–117LO
Nov 17	@ LAL	W135–117WO
Nov 20	@ ATL	L81–128LU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs LAL	L73–101LU
Nov 16	@ DEN	L120–127LO
Nov 18	@ SAC	W114–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 2–8 PHXPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 2, 2025-26	PHX 107 @ CHA 127	CHA -5.5	CHA W
Mar 8, 2025-26	CHA 99 @ PHX 111	PHX +4.5	PHX W
Jan 12, 2024-25	CHA 113 @ PHX 120	PHX -6.5	PHX W
Jan 7, 2024-25	PHX 104 @ CHA 115	CHA +4.5	CHA W
Mar 15, 2023-24	PHX 107 @ CHA 96	CHA +10.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 2, Suns 1, even 2

HornetsBetterSuns

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHABig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

Even

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

HornetsBetterSuns

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

PHXSmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

CHABig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

PHX5.3 #10

CHA		PHX
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	112.0 #19
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.12 #12
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
29.6 #28	3-point %	35.0 #16
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
21.6 #30	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.0 #15
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Suns

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Suns

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Suns