Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Suns
ORL	This season	PHX
2-4	Record	1-3
2-4	ATS	0-4
3-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 114–113 · win probability PHX 53%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

ORL 5, PHX 4 · 2026-27 so far

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, PHX 17.1%

ORLBig

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 46.5% and 45.1% of their shots

ORLBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, PHX 22.8. Allowed: ORL 29.8, PHX 31.1

PHXSmall

Rest

ORL 4 days since its last game, PHX 6

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

ORLSmall

Recent form

Last 4: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, PHX 65.1%

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away

ORLSmall

PHX offense vs ORL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

ORL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ GS	L97–120LU
Nov 10	@ SAC	W121–117LO
Nov 11	@ UTAH	W120–117LO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs HOU	L105–119LO
Nov 9	vs SA	L100–101WU
Nov 10	vs LAC	L93–117LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 5–5 PHXSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL 9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 31, 2025-26	PHX 111 @ ORL 115	ORL -2.5	ORL W
Feb 21, 2025-26	ORL 110 @ PHX 113	PHX -3.5	ORL W
Dec 8, 2024-25	PHX 110 @ ORL 115	ORL -1.5	ORL W
Nov 18, 2024-25	ORL 109 @ PHX 99	PHX +4.5	ORL W
Jan 28, 2023-24	PHX 98 @ ORL 113	ORL +1.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Suns has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 1, Suns 2, even 2

MagicBetterSuns

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

PHXSmall

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

Even

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

PHXSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

Even

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

MagicBetterSuns

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Even

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

Even

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

PHX5.3 #10

ORL		PHX
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.12 #12
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
35.4 #11	3-point %	35.0 #16
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
26.3 #16	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
7.0 #26	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

4 days since their last game.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

6 days since their last game.

Magic @ Suns

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Suns

Suns has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Suns