Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Suns
HOU	This season	PHX
6-1	Record	1-3
6-1	ATS	0-4
5-2	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 117–109 · win probability HOU 72%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 7, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far

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Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.1% of their shots

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Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, PHX 22.8. Allowed: HOU 24.7, PHX 31.1

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HOU offense vs PHX defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

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PHX offense vs HOU defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

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Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

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Recent form

Last 4: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

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Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, PHX 65.1%

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, PHX 17.1%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: HOU away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs DEN	L93–129LU
Nov 11	vs GS	W117–116LO
Nov 13	vs UTAH	W140–106WO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs SA	L100–101WU
Nov 10	vs LAC	L93–117LO
Nov 12	vs CHA	L107–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

HOU 11–7 PHXHOU leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 8 meetings · HOU 11-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 7, 2025-26	HOU 119 @ PHX 105	PHX +1.5	HOU W
Jan 5, 2025-26	PHX 97 @ HOU 100	HOU -8.5	PHX W
Dec 5, 2025-26	PHX 98 @ HOU 117	HOU -8.5	HOU W
Nov 24, 2025-26	HOU 114 @ PHX 92	PHX +6.5	HOU W
Mar 30, 2024-25	HOU 148 @ PHX 109	PHX +2.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 4, Suns 1, even 0

RocketsBetterSuns

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

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G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

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G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

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F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

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F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

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C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

RocketsBetterSuns

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

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PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

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PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

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Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

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Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

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Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

PHX5.3 #10

HOU		PHX
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.12 #12
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
39.0 #3	3-point %	35.0 #16
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
28.1 #5	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
9.7 #6	Steals per game	9.0 #15
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Suns

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Suns

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Suns