LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 8:30 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Warriors
LAC	This season	GS
1-5	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	5-2
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 116–112 · win probability GS 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

LAC 0, GS 7 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

LAC offense vs GS defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, GS 70.4%

GSSmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 42.3% and 47.1% of their shots

GSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, GS 16.7%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, GS 17.6%

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

GS offense vs LAC defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, GS 28.8. Allowed: LAC 24.7, GS 27.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LAC away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ PHX	W117–93WO
Dec 2	vs MIN	L101–127LO
Dec 13	@ SA	L99–118LU

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs UTAH	L116–119LO
Dec 12	@ CLE	L111–118WU
Dec 14	@ MEM	L108–111LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

LAC 13–9 GSLAC leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · GS has won the last 2 meetings · LAC 13-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 1, 2026-27	LAC 112 @ GS 124	GS -1.5	GS W
Apr 15, 2025-26	GS 126 @ LAC 121	LAC -5.5	GS W
Apr 12, 2025-26	GS 110 @ LAC 115	LAC -3.5	LAC W
Mar 2, 2025-26	LAC 114 @ GS 101	GS +1.5	LAC W
Jan 5, 2025-26	GS 102 @ LAC 103	LAC +3.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 1, Warriors 3, even 1

ClippersBetterWarriors

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

GSBig

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

GSBig

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

LACSmall

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

Even

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

GSBig

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

ClippersBetterWarriors

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

GSBig

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

Even

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

GSBig

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

GSBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

GSSmall

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

GS4.1 #24

LAC		GS
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.17 #3
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
38.6 #5	3-point %	40.0 #2
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
24.3 #26	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
11.3 #3	Steals per game	9.1 #11
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Warriors

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Warriors