Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Clippers
OKC	This season	LAC
4-2	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 111–109 · win probability OKC 55%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

OKC 4, LAC 4 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

LAC offense vs OKC defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, LAC 17.0%

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, LAC 70.9%

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

LACSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 35.8% and 42.3% of their shots

LACSmall

OKC offense vs LAC defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, LAC 28.0. Allowed: OKC 23.4, LAC 24.7

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: OKC away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ SAC	W113–99LU
Nov 18	vs ATL	W140–129LO
Nov 20	vs NO	W104–95LU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs CHA	W117–109WO
Nov 17	vs UTAH	W115–103WU
Nov 19	@ SA	L99–118LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

OKC 14–4 LACOKC leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 9 meetings · OKC 13-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 25, 2026-27	LAC 101 @ OKC 108	OKC -16.5	LAC W
Apr 8, 2025-26	OKC 128 @ LAC 110	LAC +8.5	OKC W
Dec 18, 2025-26	LAC 101 @ OKC 122	OKC -16.5	OKC W
Nov 4, 2025-26	OKC 126 @ LAC 107	LAC +8.5	OKC W
Mar 23, 2024-25	OKC 103 @ LAC 101	LAC -0.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Clippers 2, even 0

ThunderBetterClippers

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

LACSmall

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

LACBig

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

ThunderBetterClippers

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

LACSmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

LAC4.2 #22

OKC		LAC
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.04 #27
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
30.9 #26	3-point %	38.6 #5
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
21.7 #29	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
8.3 #20	Steals per game	11.3 #3
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Clippers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Clippers

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Clippers