NCAAF · 2026 · Weekly recap
Week 6: model vs. final scores
Published Oct 11, 2026
58 games final
58 games final
Published Oct 11, 2026 · 58 games final
58 games went final in Week 6. Favorites went 24-34 against the spread with 19 outright upsets, games went 26-32 over/under, and our model picked 39 of 58 winners using only data from before each game.
Key takeaways
19 outright upsets
Biggest: BUFF won as a 18.5-pt underdog, BUFF 23, TOL 8
Totals went the way they moved in 25 of 48
▲ up 17: 8 Over · ▼ down 31: 17 Under
Model picked 39 of 58 winners
67%, margin within 7 pts in 40% of games · season 260-69 (79%)
Avg margin miss
11.4 pts
projected vs final margin · total points off by 12.9
Week 6 vs. the season
Season to date: 329 games over 6 weeks, through Week 6. Diff = this week’s rate minus the season’s, in points.
| Week 6 | Season | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites ATS | 24-34 41% | 163-161-5 50% | ▼9 |
| Favorites straight up | 39-19 67% | 260-69 79% | ▼12 |
| Home teams ATS | 32-25 56% | 169-148-5 53% | ▲3 |
| Overs | 26-32 45% | 167-162 51% | ▼6 |
| Line-move side ATS | 27-23 54% | 147-128-5 53% | ▲1 |
| Totals went the way they moved | 25-23 52% | 143-134 52% | = |
| Model winners | 39-19 67% | 260-69 79% | ▼12 |
| Model ATS | 30-20 60% | 159-141 53% | ▲7 |
| Model O/U picks | 19-39 33% | 164-165 50% | ▼17 |
| Points per game | 51.1 | 52.3 | ▼1.2 |
| Model margin miss (pts) | 11.4 | 11.4 | ▼0.0 |
Line movement
Opening line to closing line, and whether following the market’s move paid off
Spreads
Biggest moves · badge: did that team cover?
- MD 16, OSU 45 · OSU -37.5 → OSU -31.5, 6 toward MD W
- UGA 20, ALA 17 · UGA -3 → ALA -2.5, 5.5 toward ALA L
- SYR 25, UVA 28 · UVA -8.5 → UVA -14, 5.5 toward UVA L
- AFA 28, NIU 7 · AFA -12.5 → AFA -7, 5.5 toward NIU L
- STAN 7, ND 58 · ND -35.5 → ND -40.5, 5 toward ND W
Totals
The result went the way the total moved in 25 of 48 games (52%).
Biggest moves
- TEX 24, OU 27 · 48.5 → 40.5 ▼8 · 51 pts O
- USF 24, UTSA 31 · 55.5 → 49.5 ▼6 · 55 pts O
- ODU 10, APP 3 · 51.5 → 45.5 ▼6 · 13 pts U
- M-OH 20, MASS 19 · 49.5 → 44.5 ▼5 · 39 pts U
- DUKE 25, GT 28 · 50.5 → 45.5 ▼5 · 53 pts O
Projection vs. result
Each dot is a game (hover for the score, click for the game card). On the dashed line = the model was exact. Green = model got the winner (left) or the total side (right); red = it missed.
Home margin
Total points
Highlights
Model's closest calls
- USF 24, UTSA 31 · projected 24-29 · USF off by 0, UTSA off by 2
- JXST 27, KENN 26 · projected 26-24 · JXST off by 1, KENN off by 2
- JMU 27, GASO 24 · projected 31-23 · JMU off by 4, GASO off by 1
Biggest misses
- USA 56, ARST 49 · projected 28-31 · USA off by 28, ARST off by 18
- USM 34, TROY 55 · projected 20-30 · USM off by 14, TROY off by 25
- SDSU 14, ORST 66 · projected 18-32 · SDSU off by 4, ORST off by 34
Upsets & covers
Outright upsets
- BUFF 23, TOL 8 · TOL was a 18.5-pt favorite
- VT 20, CAL 25 · VT was a 11.5-pt favorite
- SC 38, FLA 19 · FLA was a 10.5-pt favorite
- UCLA 17, ORE 15 · ORE was a 10-pt favorite
- LSU 34, UK 35 · LSU was a 9.5-pt favorite
Biggest covers
- SDSU 14, ORST 66 · ORST by 37.5 vs ORST -14.5
- BUFF 23, TOL 8 · BUFF by 33.5 vs TOL -18.5
- MINN 13, PUR 41 · PUR by 30.5 vs MINN -2.5
Closest finishes · 16 decided by 3 or fewer
- JXST 27, KENN 26 · decided by 1
- WSU 16, USU 17 · decided by 1
- M-OH 20, MASS 19 · decided by 1
Highest scoring: USA 56, ARST 49 (105). Lowest: ODU 10, APP 3 (13).
Every game: projected vs. final
ProjectedFinalShowing · Show all games
Southern Miss
TroyLine TROY -8.5 → TROY -9.5 (1 toward TROY, covered)·Total 48.5 → 51.5 ▲3
TROY W O89 vs 51.5 Model TROY ✓
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw StateLine JXST -2.5 → JXST -3 (0.5 toward JXST, didn’t cover)
KENN W O53 vs 48.5 Model JXST ✓
New Mexico State
Florida InternationalLine FIU -3.5 → FIU -7 (3.5 toward FIU, covered)·Total 47.5 → 46.5 ▼1
FIU W U25 vs 46.5 Model FIU ✓
Missouri State
Western KentuckyWKU W U47 vs 56.5 Model MOST ✗ Upset
South Florida
UTSALine UTSA -6.5 → UTSA -5.5 (1 toward USF, didn’t cover)·Total 55.5 → 49.5 ▼6
UTSA W O55 vs 49.5 Model UTSA ✓
South Alabama
Arkansas StateLine ARST -1.5 → ARST -3 (1.5 toward ARST, didn’t cover)·Total 56.5 → 60.5 ▲4
USA W O105 vs 60.5 Model ARST ✗ Upset
Florida State
LouisvilleLine LOU -7.5 → LOU -4 (3.5 toward FSU, didn’t cover)·Total 58.5 → 60.5 ▲2
LOU W O64 vs 60.5 Model LOU ✓
Iowa
WashingtonLine WASH -1.5 → WASH -3 (1.5 toward WASH, didn’t cover)
IOWA W O65 vs 41.5 Model WASH ✗ Upset
Washington State
Utah StateLine USU -3 → USU -4 (1 toward USU, didn’t cover)
WSU W U33 vs 44.5 Model USU ✓
Wyoming
San José StateLine SJSU -6 → SJSU -4.5 (1.5 toward WYO, covered)·Total 44.5 → 42.5 ▼2
WYO W U29 vs 42.5 Model SJSU ✗ Upset
Iowa State
BYULine BYU -14.5 → BYU -11.5 (3 toward ISU, didn’t cover)·Total 50.5 → 46.5 ▼4
BYU W U34 vs 46.5 Model BYU ✓
Indiana
NebraskaTotal 50.5 → 48.5 ▼2
NEB W U37 vs 48.5 Model IU ✓
Texas A&M
MissouriLine MIZ -1.5 → MIZ -4.5 (3 toward MIZ, covered)
MIZ W U33 vs 50.5 Model MIZ ✓
UCF
Oklahoma StateLine OKST -10 → OKST -10.5 (0.5 toward OKST, covered)·Total 52.5 → 53.5 ▲1
OKST W O70 vs 53.5 Model OKST ✓
North Carolina
PittsburghLine PITT -4.5 → PITT -3.5 (1 toward UNC, covered)·Total 46.5 → 47.5 ▲1
UNC W U38 vs 47.5 Model PITT ✗ Upset
Arizona
West VirginiaLine ARIZ -3 → ARIZ -3.5 (0.5 toward ARIZ, covered)·Total 58.5 → 61.5 ▲3
ARIZ W O83 vs 61.5 Model ARIZ ✓
Wake Forest
NC StateLine WAKE -2.5 → WAKE -4 (1.5 toward WAKE, covered)·Total 60.5 → 56.5 ▼4
WAKE W U52 vs 56.5 Model WAKE ✓
Tulane
ArmyLine ARMY -6.5 → ARMY -5.5 (1 toward TULN, covered)·Total 44.5 → 48.5 ▲4
TULN W U37 vs 48.5 Model ARMY ✓
Sacramento State
Bowling GreenLine BGSU -6.5 → BGSU -9.5 (3 toward BGSU, covered)·Total 46.5 → 43.5 ▼3
BGSU W O48 vs 43.5 Model BGSU ✓
Ball State
NorthwesternTotal 52.5 → 53.5 ▲1
BALL W O59 vs 53.5 Model NU ✓
South Carolina
FloridaLine FLA -14.5 → FLA -10.5 (4 toward SC, covered)·Total 57.5 → 59.5 ▲2
SC W U57 vs 59.5 Model FLA ✗ Upset
Rice
East CarolinaLine ECU -9.5 → ECU -10 (0.5 toward ECU, covered)·Total 50.5 → 46.5 ▼4
ECU W U40 vs 46.5 Model ECU ✓
Old Dominion
App StateLine APP -5.5 → APP -8.5 (3 toward APP, didn’t cover)·Total 51.5 → 45.5 ▼6
ODU W U13 vs 45.5 Model APP ✗ Upset
Miami (OH)
MassachusettsLine M-OH -2.5 → M-OH -6 (3.5 toward M-OH, didn’t cover)·Total 49.5 → 44.5 ▼5
MASS W U39 vs 44.5 Model M-OH ✓
Texas
OklahomaLine TEX -6 → TEX -7.5 (1.5 toward TEX, didn’t cover)·Total 48.5 → 40.5 ▼8
OU W O51 vs 40.5 Model TEX ✗ Upset
Stanford
Notre DameLine ND -35.5 → ND -40.5 (5 toward ND, covered)
ND W O65 vs 55.5 Model ND ✓
Ole Miss
VanderbiltLine MISS -10.5 → MISS -9.5 (1 toward VAN, didn’t cover)·Total 57.5 → 54.5 ▼3
MISS W O69 vs 54.5 Model MISS ✓
UCLA
OregonLine ORE -12.5 → ORE -10 (2.5 toward UCLA, covered)·Total 60.5 → 57.5 ▼3
UCLA W U32 vs 57.5 Model ORE ✗ Upset
Houston
Kansas StateTotal 54.5 → 55.5 ▲1
HOU W U51 vs 55.5 Model KSU ✗ Upset
Duke
Georgia TechLine DUKE -6.5 → DUKE -4.5 (2 toward GT, covered)·Total 50.5 → 45.5 ▼5
GT W O53 vs 45.5 Model DUKE ✗ Upset
Virginia Tech
CaliforniaLine VT -10.5 → VT -11.5 (1 toward VT, didn’t cover)·Total 52.5 → 51.5 ▼1
CAL W U45 vs 51.5 Model VT ✗ Upset
Illinois
Michigan StateLine ILL -3 → ILL -2.5 (0.5 toward MSU, covered)·Total 50.5 → 48.5 ▼2
MSU W O75 vs 48.5 Model ILL ✓
Charlotte
North TexasLine UNT -23.5 → UNT -27.5 (4 toward UNT, covered)·Total 62.5 → 58.5 ▼4
UNT W O60 vs 58.5 Model UNT ✓
Tulsa
NavyTotal 52.5 → 47.5 ▼5
NAVY W O60 vs 47.5 Model NAVY ✓
Eastern Michigan
AkronLine EMU -3.5 → EMU -4.5 (1 toward EMU, didn’t cover)·Total 50.5 → 51.5 ▲1
AKR W U48 vs 51.5 Model EMU ✓
Buffalo
ToledoLine TOL -19.5 → TOL -18.5 (1 toward BUFF, covered)·Total 55.5 → 54.5 ▼1
BUFF W U31 vs 54.5 Model TOL ✗ Upset
Central Michigan
OhioLine OHIO -3.5 → OHIO -2.5 (1 toward CMU, didn’t cover)·Total 48.5 → 45.5 ▼3
OHIO W U45 vs 45.5 Model OHIO ✓
Kent State
Western MichiganLine WMU -15.5 → WMU -13.5 (2 toward KENT, didn’t cover)·Total 48.5 → 43.5 ▼5
WMU W O45 vs 43.5 Model WMU ✓
UConn
TempleLine TEM -3 → TEM -3.5 (0.5 toward TEM, didn’t cover)·Total 53.5 → 55.5 ▲2
CONN W U54 vs 55.5 Model TEM ✗ Upset
Maryland
Ohio StateLine OSU -37.5 → OSU -31.5 (6 toward MD, covered)·Total 54.5 → 56.5 ▲2
MD W O61 vs 56.5 Model OSU ✓
Tennessee
ArkansasLine TENN -14 → TENN -13.5 (0.5 toward ARK, covered)·Total 49.5 → 51.5 ▲2
ARK W U41 vs 51.5 Model TENN ✓
San Diego State
Oregon StateLine ORST -13.5 → ORST -14.5 (1 toward ORST, covered)·Total 57.5 → 52.5 ▼5
ORST W O80 vs 52.5 Model ORST ✓
LSU
KentuckyLine LSU -10.5 → LSU -9.5 (1 toward UK, covered)·Total 49.5 → 50.5 ▲1
UK W O69 vs 50.5 Model LSU ✗ Upset
UAB
MemphisLine MEM -14 → MEM -15.5 (1.5 toward MEM, covered)·Total 59.5 → 55.5 ▼4
MEM W U51 vs 55.5 Model MEM ✓
Nevada
UTEPLine NEV -9.5 → NEV -10 (0.5 toward NEV, covered)·Total 52.5 → 48.5 ▼4
NEV W U43 vs 48.5 Model NEV ✓
North Dakota State
UNLVLine NDSU -4 → NDSU -3 (1 toward UNLV, covered)·Total 49.5 → 47.5 ▼2
UNLV W U20 vs 47.5 Model NDSU ✗ Upset
Coastal Carolina
MarshallLine MRSH -2.5 → MRSH -4.5 (2 toward MRSH, didn’t cover)·Total 55.5 → 57.5 ▲2
CCU W U48 vs 57.5 Model MRSH ✗ Upset
Georgia
AlabamaLine UGA -3 → ALA -2.5 (5.5 toward ALA, didn’t cover)
UGA W U37 vs 51.5 Model ALA ✗ Upset
USC
Penn StateTotal 56.5 → 54.5 ▼2
USC W U54 vs 54.5 Model USC ✓
Syracuse
VirginiaLine UVA -8.5 → UVA -14 (5.5 toward UVA, didn’t cover)·Total 50.5 → 49.5 ▼1
SYR W O53 vs 49.5 Model UVA ✓
Air Force
Northern IllinoisLine AFA -12.5 → AFA -7 (5.5 toward NIU, didn’t cover)·Total 47.5 → 48.5 ▲1
AFA W U35 vs 48.5 Model AFA ✓
Louisiana
Louisiana TechLine LT -2.5 → LT -3 (0.5 toward LT, didn’t cover)·Total 50.5 → 48.5 ▼2
UL W O63 vs 48.5 Model LT ✓
Kansas
UtahLine UTAH -16.5 → UTAH -15.5 (1 toward KU, didn’t cover)·Total 52.5 → 49.5 ▼3
UTAH W O65 vs 49.5 Model UTAH ✓
Minnesota
PurdueLine MINN -4.5 → MINN -2.5 (2 toward PUR, covered)·Total 49.5 → 48.5 ▼1
PUR W O54 vs 48.5 Model MINN ✗ Upset
James Madison
Georgia SouthernLine JMU -10 → JMU -7 (3 toward GASO, covered)·Total 53.5 → 51.5 ▼2
GASO W U51 vs 51.5 Model JMU ✓
Boise State
Fresno StateLine BOIS -7.5 → BOIS -8.5 (1 toward BOIS, didn’t cover)
FRES W O69 vs 48.5 Model BOIS ✓
Keep reading
Projections are the model's walk-forward numbers: each game uses ratings from before its week, the same figures shown on the game cards. ATS and totals use the closing line.