NCAAF · 2026 · Weekly recap
Week 7: model vs. final scores
Published Oct 18, 2026
59 games final
59 games final
Published Oct 18, 2026 · 59 games final
59 games went final in Week 7. Favorites went 27-30-2 against the spread with 18 outright upsets, games went 31-28 over/under, and our model picked 41 of 59 winners using only data from before each game.
Key takeaways
18 outright upsets
Biggest: AUB won as a 19.5-pt underdog, AUB 27, UGA 24
Totals went the way they moved in 30 of 54
▲ up 24: 14 Over · ▼ down 30: 16 Under
Model picked 41 of 59 winners
69%, margin within 7 pts in 41% of games · season 301-87 (78%)
Avg margin miss
10.7 pts
projected vs final margin · total points off by 12.9
Week 7 vs. the season
Season to date: 388 games over 7 weeks, through Week 7. Diff = this week’s rate minus the season’s, in points.
| Week 7 | Season | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites ATS | 27-30-2 47% | 190-191-7 50% | ▼3 |
| Favorites straight up | 41-18 69% | 301-87 78% | ▼9 |
| Home teams ATS | 29-28-2 51% | 198-176-7 53% | ▼2 |
| Overs | 31-28 53% | 198-190 51% | ▲2 |
| Line-move side ATS | 29-22-1 57% | 176-150-6 54% | ▲3 |
| Totals went the way they moved | 30-24 56% | 173-158 52% | ▲4 |
| Model winners | 41-18 69% | 301-87 78% | ▼9 |
| Model ATS | 25-25 50% | 184-166 53% | ▼3 |
| Model O/U picks | 29-30 49% | 193-195 50% | ▼1 |
| Points per game | 50.8 | 52.0 | ▼1.2 |
| Model margin miss (pts) | 10.7 | 11.3 | ▼0.6 |
Line movement
Opening line to closing line, and whether following the market’s move paid off
Spreads
Biggest moves · badge: did that team cover?
- NEB 14, ORE 17 · ORE -21.5 → ORE -6.5, 15 toward NEB W
- CLT 38, TEM 31 · TEM -23.5 → TEM -17.5, 6 toward CLT W
- ALA 10, TENN 26 · ALA -1.5 → ALA -7.5, 6 toward ALA L
- KU 24, KSU 35 · KSU -8.5 → KSU -3, 5.5 toward KU L
- MSST 0, LSU 31 · LSU -12.5 → LSU -17.5, 5 toward LSU W
Totals
The result went the way the total moved in 30 of 54 games (56%).
Biggest moves
- UNC 24, DUKE 20 · 54.5 → 46.5 ▼8 · 44 pts U
- PSU 18, MICH 21 · 51.5 → 43.5 ▼8 · 39 pts U
- ND 24, BYU 28 · 54.5 → 47.5 ▼7 · 52 pts O
- WIS 7, UCLA 17 · 49.5 → 42.5 ▼7 · 24 pts U
- ALA 10, TENN 26 · 56.5 → 50.5 ▼6 · 36 pts U
Projection vs. result
Each dot is a game (hover for the score, click for the game card). On the dashed line = the model was exact. Green = model got the winner (left) or the total side (right); red = it missed.
Home margin
Total points
Highlights
Model's closest calls
- NEV 17, NDSU 31 · projected 16-31 · NEV off by 1, NDSU off by 0
- MASS 18, BUFF 25 · projected 21-26 · MASS off by 3, BUFF off by 1
- NU 24, MSU 21 · projected 28-21 · NU off by 4, MSU off by 0
Biggest misses
- WKU 16, SHSU 3 · projected 27-26 · WKU off by 11, SHSU off by 23
- LT 24, ULM 0 · projected 34-20 · LT off by 10, ULM off by 20
- WSU 30, ORST 48 · projected 15-33 · WSU off by 15, ORST off by 15 (margin exact)
Upsets & covers
Outright upsets
- AUB 27, UGA 24 · UGA was a 19.5-pt favorite
- CLT 38, TEM 31 · TEM was a 17.5-pt favorite
- FLA 27, TEX 24 · TEX was a 13.5-pt favorite
- ND 24, BYU 28 · ND was a 10.5-pt favorite
- ALA 10, TENN 26 · ALA was a 7.5-pt favorite
Biggest covers
- FAU 24, ARMY 56 · ARMY by 29.5 vs ARMY -2.5
- CLT 38, TEM 31 · CLT by 24.5 vs TEM -17.5
- MIZ 3, MISS 31 · MISS by 24 vs MISS -4
Closest finishes · 14 decided by 3 or fewer
- BALL 32, BGSU 31 · decided by 1
- DEL 30, MTSU 33 · decided by 3
- FIU 24, JXST 27 · decided by 3
Highest scoring: CSU 27, TXST 66 (93). Lowest: WKU 16, SHSU 3 (19).
Every game: projected vs. final
ProjectedFinalShowing · Show all games
Delaware
Middle TennesseeTotal 48.5 → 49.5 ▲1
MTSU W O63 vs 49.5 Model DEL ✗ Upset
Florida International
Jacksonville StateTotal 45.5 → 44.5 ▼1
P O51 vs 44.5 Model JXST ✓
Kennesaw State
Missouri StateLine KENN -3 → KENN -2.5 (0.5 toward MOST, covered)·Total 50.5 → 52.5 ▲2
MOST W U45 vs 52.5 Model KENN ✗ Upset
Western Kentucky
Sam HoustonTotal 51.5 → 53.5 ▲2
WKU W U19 vs 53.5 Model WKU ✓
East Carolina
UABLine ECU -6.5 → ECU -5.5 (1 toward UAB, covered)·Total 53.5 → 49.5 ▼4
UAB W U47 vs 49.5 Model ECU ✗ Upset
Georgia Southern
Old DominionLine GASO -2.5 → GASO -3 (0.5 toward GASO, covered)·Total 49.5 → 44.5 ▼5
GASO W U38 vs 44.5 Model GASO ✓
Colorado State
Texas StateLine TXST -12.5 → TXST -15.5 (3 toward TXST, covered)·Total 67.5 → 69.5 ▲2
TXST W O93 vs 69.5 Model TXST ✓
Memphis
TulaneLine MEM -7 → MEM -6.5 (0.5 toward TULN, covered)·Total 53.5 → 55.5 ▲2
TULN W U48 vs 55.5 Model MEM ✗ Upset
Washington
PurdueLine PUR -2.5 → PUR -3 (0.5 toward PUR, didn’t cover)·Total 51.5 → 50.5 ▼1
WASH W O64 vs 50.5 Model PUR ✗ Upset
App State
Coastal CarolinaTotal 51.5 → 48.5 ▼3
APP W O67 vs 48.5 Model APP ✓
Ohio State
IndianaLine Pick’em → OSU -3 (3 toward OSU, covered)·Total 48.5 → 49.5 ▲1
OSU W U34 vs 49.5 Model OSU ✓
Florida
TexasLine TEX -9.5 → TEX -13.5 (4 toward TEX, didn’t cover)·Total 53.5 → 51.5 ▼2
FLA W U51 vs 51.5 Model TEX ✗ Upset
Mississippi State
LSULine LSU -12.5 → LSU -17.5 (5 toward LSU, covered)·Total 59.5 → 56.5 ▼3
LSU W U31 vs 56.5 Model LSU ✓
Virginia
SMULine SMU -7.5 → SMU -10 (2.5 toward SMU)·Total 53.5 → 51.5 ▼2
P U36 vs 51.5 Model SMU ✓
Northwestern
Michigan StateLine NU -8.5 → NU -7.5 (1 toward MSU, covered)·Total 47.5 → 50.5 ▲3
MSU W U45 vs 50.5 Model NU ✓
Cincinnati
West VirginiaTotal 61.5 → 64.5 ▲3
WVU W O87 vs 64.5 Model WVU ✓
Kansas
Kansas StateLine KSU -8.5 → KSU -3 (5.5 toward KU, didn’t cover)·Total 54.5 → 55.5 ▲1
KSU W O59 vs 55.5 Model KSU ✓
Pittsburgh
Boston CollegeLine PITT -7 → PITT -6.5 (0.5 toward BC, covered)·Total 46.5 → 42.5 ▼4
BC W O48 vs 42.5 Model PITT ✗ Upset
Florida Atlantic
ArmyLine ARMY -3 → ARMY -2.5 (0.5 toward FAU, didn’t cover)·Total 59.5 → 55.5 ▼4
ARMY W O80 vs 55.5 Model ARMY ✓
Ball State
Bowling GreenLine BGSU -8.5 → BGSU -6 (2.5 toward BALL, covered)·Total 44.5 → 46.5 ▲2
BALL W O63 vs 46.5 Model BGSU ✗ Upset
Georgia State
James MadisonLine JMU -12.5 → JMU -7.5 (5 toward GAST, didn’t cover)·Total 54.5 → 57.5 ▲3
JMU W O71 vs 57.5 Model JMU ✓
Rutgers
MarylandLine MD -4.5 → MD -5.5 (1 toward MD, didn’t cover)·Total 58.5 → 55.5 ▼3
RUTG W O67 vs 55.5 Model MD ✗ Upset
Charlotte
TempleLine TEM -23.5 → TEM -17.5 (6 toward CLT, covered)·Total 49.5 → 47.5 ▼2
CLT W O69 vs 47.5 Model TEM ✗ Upset
Massachusetts
BuffaloLine BUFF -4.5 → BUFF -6.5 (2 toward BUFF, covered)·Total 47.5 → 43.5 ▼4
BUFF W U43 vs 43.5 Model BUFF ✓
Western Michigan
Central MichiganLine WMU -7 → WMU -7.5 (0.5 toward WMU, didn’t cover)
CMU W U35 vs 42.5 Model WMU ✓
Auburn
GeorgiaLine UGA -16.5 → UGA -19.5 (3 toward UGA, didn’t cover)·Total 55.5 → 50.5 ▼5
AUB W O51 vs 50.5 Model UGA ✗ Upset
Alabama
TennesseeLine ALA -1.5 → ALA -7.5 (6 toward ALA, didn’t cover)·Total 56.5 → 50.5 ▼6
TENN W U36 vs 50.5 Model ALA ✗ Upset
Missouri
Ole MissLine MISS -6 → MISS -4 (2 toward MIZ, didn’t cover)
MISS W U34 vs 57.5 Model MISS ✓
Arizona State
Texas TechLine TTU -12.5 → TTU -16.5 (4 toward TTU, covered)·Total 52.5 → 50.5 ▼2
TTU W O78 vs 50.5 Model TTU ✓
Georgia Tech
Virginia TechLine VT -10 → VT -8.5 (1.5 toward GT, didn’t cover)
VT W O58 vs 55.5 Model VT ✓
North Carolina
DukeLine DUKE -4.5 → DUKE -3 (1.5 toward UNC, covered)·Total 54.5 → 46.5 ▼8
UNC W U44 vs 46.5 Model DUKE ✗ Upset
Penn State
MichiganLine MICH -6.5 → MICH -6 (0.5 toward PSU, covered)·Total 51.5 → 43.5 ▼8
PSU W U39 vs 43.5 Model MICH ✓
Northern Illinois
WyomingLine WYO -7.5 → WYO -7 (0.5 toward NIU, didn’t cover)·Total 38.5 → 42.5 ▲4
WYO W O64 vs 42.5 Model WYO ✓
UNLV
Air ForceLine UNLV -3 → AFA -1.5 (4.5 toward AFA, covered)·Total 48.5 → 49.5 ▲1
AFA W O72 vs 49.5 Model AFA ✓
Toledo
Eastern MichiganLine TOL -6.5 → TOL -7.5 (1 toward TOL, covered)·Total 52.5 → 51.5 ▼1
TOL W U48 vs 51.5 Model TOL ✓
Akron
Miami (OH)Total 46.5 → 47.5 ▲1
M-OH W O48 vs 47.5 Model M-OH ✓
Tulsa
RiceLine TLSA -2.5 → TLSA -3.5 (1 toward TLSA, covered)·Total 46.5 → 47.5 ▲1
TLSA W O55 vs 47.5 Model TLSA ✓
Troy
LouisianaLine UL -3.5 → UL -3 (0.5 toward TROY, didn’t cover)·Total 47.5 → 49.5 ▲2
UL W U39 vs 49.5 Model UL ✓
Washington State
Oregon StateLine ORST -17.5 → ORST -18.5 (1 toward ORST, didn’t cover)
WSU W O78 vs 52.5 Model ORST ✓
Florida State
MiamiLine MIA -16.5 → MIA -20.5 (4 toward MIA, didn’t cover)·Total 53.5 → 57.5 ▲4
FSU W O78 vs 57.5 Model MIA ✓
Arkansas
VanderbiltLine VAN -6.5 → VAN -5.5 (1 toward ARK, covered)·Total 50.5 → 48.5 ▼2
ARK W O52 vs 48.5 Model VAN ✗ Upset
TCU
BaylorLine BAY -6.5 → BAY -3.5 (3 toward TCU, covered)·Total 51.5 → 50.5 ▼1
TCU W U23 vs 50.5 Model BAY ✗ Upset
Kent State
South FloridaLine USF -18.5 → USF -20.5 (2 toward USF, covered)·Total 49.5 → 46.5 ▼3
USF W U31 vs 46.5 Model USF ✓
Nevada
North Dakota StateTotal 46.5 → 42.5 ▼4
NEV W O48 vs 42.5 Model NDSU ✓
Arkansas State
Southern MissLine ARST -6.5 → ARST -5.5 (1 toward USM, didn’t cover)·Total 55.5 → 61.5 ▲6
ARST W U36 vs 61.5 Model ARST ✓
Notre Dame
BYULine ND -11.5 → ND -10.5 (1 toward BYU, covered)·Total 54.5 → 47.5 ▼7
BYU W O52 vs 47.5 Model ND ✗ Upset
Wisconsin
UCLALine UCLA -3 → UCLA -1.5 (1.5 toward WIS, didn’t cover)·Total 49.5 → 42.5 ▼7
UCLA W U24 vs 42.5 Model UCLA ✓
Kentucky
OklahomaLine OU -6.5 → OU -7 (0.5 toward OU, didn’t cover)·Total 41.5 → 44.5 ▲3
UK W U34 vs 44.5 Model OU ✗ Upset
Oklahoma State
HoustonLine HOU -3.5 → HOU -4 (0.5 toward HOU, didn’t cover)·Total 57.5 → 62.5 ▲5
OKST W O67 vs 62.5 Model HOU ✓
Louisville
SyracuseLine LOU -10.5 → LOU -14.5 (4 toward LOU, didn’t cover)·Total 55.5 → 56.5 ▲1
SYR W O60 vs 56.5 Model LOU ✓
Navy
UTSALine UTSA -7 → UTSA -5.5 (1.5 toward NAVY, covered)·Total 55.5 → 52.5 ▼3
NAVY W O72 vs 52.5 Model UTSA ✓
Louisiana Tech
UL MonroeLine LT -14.5 → LT -13.5 (1 toward ULM, didn’t cover)·Total 52.5 → 55.5 ▲3
LT W U24 vs 55.5 Model LT ✓
San José State
UTEPLine SJSU -10 → SJSU -6.5 (3.5 toward UTEP, didn’t cover)·Total 52.5 → 46.5 ▼6
SJSU W U35 vs 46.5 Model SJSU ✓
Ohio
Sacramento StateLine OHIO -13.5 → OHIO -17.5 (4 toward OHIO, covered)·Total 49.5 → 46.5 ▼3
OHIO W O55 vs 46.5 Model OHIO ✓
Utah
ColoradoLine UTAH -16.5 → UTAH -15.5 (1 toward COLO, covered)
COLO W O51 vs 49.5 Model UTAH ✓
Wake Forest
CaliforniaLine WAKE -8.5 → WAKE -10 (1.5 toward WAKE, covered)·Total 53.5 → 54.5 ▲1
WAKE W U48 vs 54.5 Model WAKE ✓
Fresno State
San Diego StateLine FRES -8.5 → FRES -6.5 (2 toward SDSU, covered)·Total 43.5 → 46.5 ▲3
SDSU W O49 vs 46.5 Model FRES ✗ Upset
New Mexico
Hawai'iLine UNM -15.5 → UNM -14.5 (1 toward HAW, covered)·Total 48.5 → 46.5 ▼2
HAW W U31 vs 46.5 Model UNM ✓
Nebraska
OregonLine ORE -21.5 → ORE -6.5 (15 toward NEB, covered)·Total 51.5 → 50.5 ▼1
NEB W U31 vs 50.5 Model ORE ✓
Keep reading
Projections are the model's walk-forward numbers: each game uses ratings from before its week, the same figures shown on the game cards. ATS and totals use the closing line.