Articles: Weekly Recaps, Model vs. Results | sportsanalysis.info

Weekly recaps: our model vs. the final scores

Who covered, how the totals went, where the lines moved and how the projections held up.

New recaps every Sunday, 11 PM PT

Research · NFL & college · 2026

Over by the 3rd quarter

Over before the 4th: how often 2026 totals were beaten by the 3rd quarter

NFL and college football games whose combined score had already passed the closing total after three quarters, which teams keep doing it, and what the model expects from their next games.

College over by Q3

76 of 517 · 15%

Oct 6, 2026Read the feature →

Model vs. final scores

Favorites and underdogs split ATS · biggest upset: AUB (+19.5) beat UGA 27-24

Outright upsets

59 games · Oct 18, 2026Read recap →

Model vs. final scores

Underdogs covered 9 of 14 · biggest upset: ARI (+13.5) beat LAR 18-16

Outright upsets

14 games · Oct 18, 2026Read recap →

Model vs. final scores

Favorites and underdogs split ATS · biggest upset: BUFF (+18.5) beat TOL 23-8

Outright upsets

58 games · Oct 11, 2026Read recap →

Model vs. final scores

Favorites and underdogs split ATS · biggest upset: TB (+8.5) beat DAL 24-16

Outright upsets

15 games · Oct 11, 2026Read recap →

Model vs. final scores

Underdogs covered 11 of 16 · overs hit 10 of 16 · biggest upset: NE (+7) beat BUF 29-26

Outright upsets

16 games · Oct 5, 2026Read recap →

Model vs. final scores

Favorites and underdogs split ATS · biggest upset: BGSU (+10.5) beat M-OH 24-20

Outright upsets

56 games · Oct 4, 2026Read recap →