NFL · 2026 · Weekly recap
Week 4: model vs. final scores
Published Oct 5, 2026
16 games final
16 games final
Published Oct 5, 2026 · 16 games final
16 games went final in Week 4. Favorites went 4-11-1 against the spread with 7 outright upsets, games went 10-6 over/under, and our model picked 9 of 16 winners using only data from before each game.
Key takeaways
Underdogs covered 11 of 16
Favorites 4-11-1 ATS (27%) · season 26-34-4 (43%)
7 outright upsets
Biggest: NE won as a 7-pt underdog, NE 29, BUF 26
Overs hit 10 of 16
47.8 pts a game vs a 45.2 avg total · season overs 52%
Totals went the way they moved in 8 of 14
▲ up 5: 4 Over · ▼ down 9: 4 Under
Model picked 9 of 16 winners
56%, margin within 7 pts in 63% of games · season 40-24 (63%)
Avg margin miss
7.1 pts
projected vs final margin · total points off by 10.6
Week 4 vs. the season
Season to date: 64 games over 4 weeks, through Week 4. Diff = this week’s rate minus the season’s, in points.
| Week 4 | Season | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites ATS | 4-11-1 27% | 26-34-4 43% | ▼16 |
| Favorites straight up | 9-7 56% | 40-24 63% | ▼7 |
| Home teams ATS | 7-7-1 50% | 31-27-3 53% | ▼3 |
| Overs | 10-6 63% | 33-31 52% | ▲11 |
| Line-move side ATS | 5-8-1 38% | 22-26-4 46% | ▼8 |
| Totals went the way they moved | 8-6 57% | 27-27 50% | ▲7 |
| Model winners | 9-7 56% | 40-24 63% | ▼7 |
| Model ATS | 7-5 58% | 22-25 47% | ▲11 |
| Model O/U picks | 6-10 38% | 24-40 38% | = |
| Points per game | 47.8 | 46.2 | ▲1.5 |
| Model margin miss (pts) | 7.1 | 9.7 | ▼2.5 |
Line movement
Opening line to closing line, and whether following the market’s move paid off
Spreads
Biggest moves · badge: did that team cover?
- ARI 24, NYG 36 · NYG -7 → ARI -2.5, 9.5 toward ARI L
- IND 30, WSH 13 · WSH -1.5 → IND -4.5, 6 toward IND W
- NYJ 12, CHI 23 · CHI -8.5 → CHI -3.5, 5 toward NYJ L
- NE 29, BUF 26 · BUF -3 → BUF -7, 4 toward BUF L
- LAC 23, SEA 30 · SEA -3 → SEA -7, 4 toward SEA P
Totals
The result went the way the total moved in 8 of 14 games (57%).
Biggest moves
- GB 17, TB 14 · 47.5 → 38.5 ▼9 · 31 pts U
- DET 26, CAR 32 · 45.5 → 52.5 ▲7 · 58 pts O
- TEN 18, BAL 24 · 47.5 → 41.5 ▼6 · 42 pts O
- LAR 24, PHI 20 · 47.5 → 42.5 ▼5 · 44 pts O
- MIA 10, MIN 15 · 43.5 → 38.5 ▼5 · 25 pts U
Projection vs. result
Each dot is a game (hover for the score, click for the game card). On the dashed line = the model was exact. Green = model got the winner (left) or the total side (right); red = it missed.
Home margin
Total points
Highlights
Model's closest calls
- LAR 24, PHI 20 · projected 24-19 · LAR off by 0, PHI off by 1
- TEN 18, BAL 24 · projected 16-28 · TEN off by 2, BAL off by 4
- DEN 14, SF 24 · projected 21-24 · DEN off by 7, SF off by 0
Biggest misses
- ATL 45, NO 24 · projected 21-23 · ATL off by 24, NO off by 1
- DAL 34, HOU 30 · projected 22-25 · DAL off by 12, HOU off by 5
- ARI 24, NYG 36 · projected 23-21 · ARI off by 1, NYG off by 15
Upsets & covers
Outright upsets
- NE 29, BUF 26 · BUF was a 7-pt favorite
- DET 26, CAR 32 · DET was a 3.5-pt favorite
- DAL 34, HOU 30 · HOU was a 3-pt favorite
- PIT 24, CLE 27 · PIT was a 2.5-pt favorite
- JAX 22, CIN 17 · CIN was a 2.5-pt favorite
Biggest covers
- ATL 45, NO 24 · ATL by 22.5 vs NO -1.5
- ARI 24, NYG 36 · NYG by 14.5 vs ARI -2.5
- IND 30, WSH 13 · IND by 12.5 vs IND -4.5
Closest finishes · 4 decided by 3 or fewer
- PIT 24, CLE 27 · decided by 3
- NE 29, BUF 26 · decided by 3
- GB 17, TB 14 · decided by 3
Highest scoring: ATL 45, NO 24 (69). Lowest: MIA 10, MIN 15 (25).
Every game: projected vs. final
ProjectedFinalShowing · Show all games
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland BrownsTotal 40.5 → 38.5 ▼2
CLE W O51 vs 38.5 Model PIT ✗ Upset
Indianapolis Colts
Washington CommandersLine WSH -1.5 → IND -4.5 (6 toward IND, covered)·Total 48.5 → 46.5 ▼2
IND W U43 vs 46.5 Model IND ✓
New England Patriots
Buffalo BillsLine BUF -3 → BUF -7 (4 toward BUF, didn’t cover)
NE W O55 vs 49.5 Model BUF ✗ Upset
New York Jets
Chicago BearsLine CHI -8.5 → CHI -3.5 (5 toward NYJ, didn’t cover)·Total 45.5 → 43.5 ▼2
CHI W U35 vs 43.5 Model CHI ✓
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati BengalsJAX W U39 vs 51.5 Model CIN ✗ Upset
Arizona Cardinals
New York GiantsLine NYG -7 → ARI -2.5 (9.5 toward ARI, didn’t cover)·Total 45.5 → 43.5 ▼2
NYG W O60 vs 43.5 Model ARI ✗ Upset
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia EaglesLine LAR -1.5 → LAR -4.5 (3 toward LAR, didn’t cover)·Total 47.5 → 42.5 ▼5
PHI W O44 vs 42.5 Model LAR ✓
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay BuccaneersLine GB -1.5 → GB -2.5 (1 toward GB, covered)·Total 47.5 → 38.5 ▼9
GB W U31 vs 38.5 Model GB ✓
Tennessee Titans
Baltimore RavensLine BAL -8.5 → BAL -11.5 (3 toward BAL, didn’t cover)·Total 47.5 → 41.5 ▼6
TEN W O42 vs 41.5 Model BAL ✓
Dallas Cowboys
Houston TexansLine HOU -2.5 → HOU -3 (0.5 toward HOU, didn’t cover)·Total 47.5 → 48.5 ▲1
DAL W O64 vs 48.5 Model HOU ✗ Upset
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota VikingsLine MIN -7.5 → MIN -10 (2.5 toward MIN, didn’t cover)·Total 43.5 → 38.5 ▼5
MIA W U25 vs 38.5 Model MIN ✓
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas RaidersLine KC -5.5 → KC -3.5 (2 toward LV, covered)·Total 43.5 → 47.5 ▲4
LV W O57 vs 47.5 Model KC ✓
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ersLine SF -2.5 → SF -3 (0.5 toward SF, covered)·Total 46.5 → 48.5 ▲2
SF W U38 vs 48.5 Model SF ✓
Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle SeahawksLine SEA -3 → SEA -7 (4 toward SEA)·Total 45.5 → 43.5 ▼2
P O53 vs 43.5 Model SEA ✓
Detroit Lions
Carolina PanthersLine DET -3 → DET -3.5 (0.5 toward DET, didn’t cover)·Total 45.5 → 52.5 ▲7
CAR W O58 vs 52.5 Model DET ✗ Upset
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans SaintsLine NO -2.5 → NO -1.5 (1 toward ATL, covered)·Total 45.5 → 48.5 ▲3
ATL W O69 vs 48.5 Model NO ✗ Upset
Keep reading
Projections are the model's walk-forward numbers: each game uses ratings from before its week, the same figures shown on the game cards. ATS and totals use the closing line.