NFL · 2026 · Weekly recap
Week 5: model vs. final scores
Published Oct 11, 2026
15 games final
15 games final
Published Oct 11, 2026 · 15 games final
15 games went final in Week 5. Favorites went 7-8 against the spread with 5 outright upsets, games went 8-7 over/under, and our model picked 9 of 14 winners using only data from before each game.
Key takeaways
5 outright upsets
Biggest: TB won as a 8.5-pt underdog, TB 24, DAL 16
Totals went the way they moved in 9 of 13
▲ up 3: 3 Over · ▼ down 10: 6 Under
Model picked 9 of 14 winners
64%, margin within 7 pts in 53% of games · season 49-29 (63%)
Avg margin miss
10.1 pts
projected vs final margin · total points off by 11.1
Week 5 vs. the season
Season to date: 79 games over 5 weeks, through Week 5. Diff = this week’s rate minus the season’s, in points.
| Week 5 | Season | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites ATS | 7-8 47% | 33-42-4 44% | ▲3 |
| Favorites straight up | 9-5 64% | 49-29 63% | ▲1 |
| Home teams ATS | 5-9 36% | 36-36-3 50% | ▼14 |
| Overs | 8-7 53% | 41-38 52% | ▲1 |
| Line-move side ATS | 6-8 43% | 28-34-4 45% | ▼2 |
| Totals went the way they moved | 9-4 69% | 36-31 54% | ▲15 |
| Model winners | 9-5 64% | 49-29 63% | ▲1 |
| Model ATS | 5-6 45% | 27-31 47% | ▼2 |
| Model O/U picks | 6-9 40% | 30-49 38% | ▲2 |
| Points per game | 48.4 | 46.6 | ▲1.8 |
| Model margin miss (pts) | 10.1 | 9.7 | ▲0.4 |
Line movement
Opening line to closing line, and whether following the market’s move paid off
Spreads
Biggest moves · badge: did that team cover?
- PHI 17, JAX 19 · PHI -2.5 → JAX -7.5, 10 toward JAX L
- BAL 30, ATL 23 · BAL -4.5 → ATL -3, 7.5 toward ATL L
- DEN 23, LAC 17 · LAC -2.5 → DEN -3, 5.5 toward DEN W
- TB 24, DAL 16 · DAL -3.5 → DAL -8.5, 5 toward DAL L
- CHI 7, GB 31 · GB -3 → CHI -1.5, 4.5 toward CHI L
Totals
The result went the way the total moved in 9 of 13 games (69%).
Biggest moves
- LV 17, NE 45 · 44.5 → 51.5 ▲7 · 62 pts O
- NYG 27, WSH 27 · 48.5 → 41.5 ▼7 · 54 pts O
- HOU 26, TEN 3 · 43.5 → 37.5 ▼6 · 29 pts U
- DET 45, ARI 21 · 49.5 → 55.5 ▲6 · 66 pts O
- IND 22, PIT 34 · 47.5 → 42.5 ▼5 · 56 pts O
Projection vs. result
Each dot is a game (hover for the score, click for the game card). On the dashed line = the model was exact. Green = model got the winner (left) or the total side (right); red = it missed.
Home margin
Total points
Highlights
Model's closest calls
- DEN 23, LAC 17 · projected 21-18 · DEN off by 2, LAC off by 1
- PHI 17, JAX 19 · projected 18-25 · PHI off by 1, JAX off by 6
- MIN 23, NO 13 · projected 23-20 · MIN off by 0, NO off by 7
Biggest misses
- CHI 7, GB 31 · projected 24-22 · CHI off by 17, GB off by 9
- BUF 37, LAR 34 · projected 23-26 · BUF off by 14, LAR off by 8
- LV 17, NE 45 · projected 17-25 · LV off by 0, NE off by 20
Upsets & covers
Outright upsets
- TB 24, DAL 16 · DAL was a 8.5-pt favorite
- BUF 37, LAR 34 · LAR was a 3.5-pt favorite
- SF 32, SEA 29 · SEA was a 3-pt favorite
- BAL 30, ATL 23 · ATL was a 3-pt favorite
- CHI 7, GB 31 · CHI was a 1.5-pt favorite
Biggest covers
- CHI 7, GB 31 · GB by 25.5 vs CHI -1.5
- LV 17, NE 45 · NE by 19.5 vs NE -8.5
- DET 45, ARI 21 · DET by 19.5 vs DET -4.5
Closest finishes · 4 decided by 3 or fewer
- NYG 27, WSH 27 · tie
- PHI 17, JAX 19 · decided by 2
- SF 32, SEA 29 · decided by 3
Highest scoring: BUF 37, LAR 34 (71). Lowest: HOU 26, TEN 3 (29).
Every game: projected vs. final
ProjectedFinalShowing · Show all games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas CowboysLine DAL -3.5 → DAL -8.5 (5 toward DAL, didn’t cover)·Total 52.5 → 49.5 ▼3
TB W U40 vs 49.5 Model DAL ✗ Upset
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville JaguarsLine PHI -2.5 → JAX -7.5 (10 toward JAX, didn’t cover)·Total 44.5 → 41.5 ▼3
PHI W U36 vs 41.5 Model JAX ✓
Chicago Bears
Green Bay PackersLine GB -3 → CHI -1.5 (4.5 toward CHI, didn’t cover)·Total 49.5 → 46.5 ▼3
GB W U38 vs 46.5 Model CHI ✗ Upset
Houston Texans
Tennessee TitansLine HOU -3.5 → HOU -6.5 (3 toward HOU, covered)·Total 43.5 → 37.5 ▼6
HOU W U29 vs 37.5 Model HOU ✓
Cincinnati Bengals
Miami DolphinsLine CIN -5.5 → CIN -7.5 (2 toward CIN, didn’t cover)·Total 48.5 → 45.5 ▼3
MIA W O55 vs 45.5 Model CIN ✓
Las Vegas Raiders
New England PatriotsTotal 44.5 → 51.5 ▲7
NE W O62 vs 51.5 Model NE ✓
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans SaintsLine MIN -1.5 → MIN -2.5 (1 toward MIN, covered)·Total 44.5 → 41.5 ▼3
MIN W U36 vs 41.5 Model MIN ✓
Cleveland Browns
New York JetsLine NYJ -1.5 → NYJ -2.5 (1 toward NYJ, covered)
NYJ W U29 vs 38.5 Model NYJ ✓
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh SteelersLine PIT -2.5 → PIT -3 (0.5 toward PIT, covered)·Total 47.5 → 42.5 ▼5
PIT W O56 vs 42.5 Model PIT ✓
New York Giants
Washington CommandersLine WSH -2.5 → WSH -3.5 (1 toward WSH, didn’t cover)·Total 48.5 → 41.5 ▼7
NYG W O54 vs 41.5
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles ChargersLine LAC -2.5 → DEN -3 (5.5 toward DEN, covered)·Total 44.5 → 42.5 ▼2
DEN W U40 vs 42.5 Model DEN ✓
Detroit Lions
Arizona CardinalsLine DET -8.5 → DET -4.5 (4 toward ARI, didn’t cover)·Total 49.5 → 55.5 ▲6
DET W O66 vs 55.5 Model DET ✓
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle SeahawksLine SEA -3.5 → SEA -3 (0.5 toward SF, covered)
SF W O61 vs 46.5 Model SEA ✗ Upset
Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta FalconsLine BAL -4.5 → ATL -3 (7.5 toward ATL, didn’t cover)·Total 48.5 → 44.5 ▼4
BAL W O53 vs 44.5 Model ATL ✗ Upset
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles RamsLine LAR -3 → LAR -3.5 (0.5 toward LAR, didn’t cover)·Total 53.5 → 55.5 ▲2
BUF W O71 vs 55.5 Model LAR ✗ Upset
Keep reading
Projections are the model's walk-forward numbers: each game uses ratings from before its week, the same figures shown on the game cards. ATS and totals use the closing line.