NFL · 2026 · Weekly recap
Week 6: model vs. final scores
Published Oct 18, 2026
14 games final
14 games final
Published Oct 18, 2026 · 14 games final
14 games went final in Week 6. Favorites went 5-9 against the spread with 6 outright upsets, games went 7-7 over/under, and our model picked 8 of 14 winners using only data from before each game.
Key takeaways
Underdogs covered 9 of 14
Favorites 5-9 ATS (36%) · season 38-51-4 (43%)
6 outright upsets
Biggest: ARI won as a 13.5-pt underdog, ARI 18, LAR 16
Totals went the way they moved in 8 of 13
▲ up 7: 4 Over · ▼ down 6: 4 Under
Model picked 8 of 14 winners
57%, margin within 7 pts in 64% of games · season 57-35 (62%)
Avg margin miss
6.7 pts
projected vs final margin · total points off by 10.4
Week 6 vs. the season
Season to date: 93 games over 6 weeks, through Week 6. Diff = this week’s rate minus the season’s, in points.
| Week 6 | Season | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites ATS | 5-9 36% | 38-51-4 43% | ▼7 |
| Favorites straight up | 8-6 57% | 57-35 62% | ▼5 |
| Home teams ATS | 5-8 38% | 41-44-3 48% | ▼10 |
| Overs | 7-7 50% | 48-45 52% | ▼2 |
| Line-move side ATS | 7-6 54% | 35-40-4 47% | ▲7 |
| Totals went the way they moved | 8-5 62% | 44-36 55% | ▲7 |
| Model winners | 8-6 57% | 57-35 62% | ▼5 |
| Model ATS | 6-5 55% | 33-36 48% | ▲7 |
| Model O/U picks | 5-9 36% | 35-58 38% | ▼2 |
| Points per game | 43.6 | 46.2 | ▼2.6 |
| Model margin miss (pts) | 6.7 | 9.3 | ▼2.6 |
Line movement
Opening line to closing line, and whether following the market’s move paid off
Spreads
Biggest moves · badge: did that team cover?
- CAR 25, PHI 14 · PHI -6.5 → CAR -3, 9.5 toward CAR W
- LAC 6, KC 22 · KC -2.5 → KC -7.5, 5 toward KC W
- DAL 13, GB 23 · GB -3 → DAL -1.5, 4.5 toward DAL L
- HOU 34, JAX 31 · HOU -1.5 → JAX -2.5, 4 toward JAX L
- NO 34, NYG 27 · NYG -2.5 → NO -1.5, 4 toward NO W
Totals
The result went the way the total moved in 8 of 13 games (62%).
Biggest moves
- PIT 26, TB 19 · 45.5 → 37.5 ▼8 · 45 pts O
- BUF 33, LV 30 · 47.5 → 54.5 ▲7 · 63 pts O
- TEN 26, IND 20 · 48.5 → 43.5 ▼5 · 46 pts O
- ARI 18, LAR 16 · 46.5 → 51.5 ▲5 · 34 pts U
- LAC 6, KC 22 · 46.5 → 41.5 ▼5 · 28 pts U
Projection vs. result
Each dot is a game (hover for the score, click for the game card). On the dashed line = the model was exact. Green = model got the winner (left) or the total side (right); red = it missed.
Home margin
Total points
Highlights
Model's closest calls
- NYJ 19, NE 26 · projected 17-25 · NYJ off by 2, NE off by 1
- PIT 26, TB 19 · projected 21-19 · PIT off by 5, TB off by 0
- WSH 17, SF 23 · projected 19-27 · WSH off by 2, SF off by 4
Biggest misses
- HOU 34, JAX 31 · projected 19-21 · HOU off by 15, JAX off by 10
- BAL 10, CLE 13 · projected 22-19 · BAL off by 12, CLE off by 6
- NO 34, NYG 27 · projected 23-22 · NO off by 11, NYG off by 5
Upsets & covers
Outright upsets
- ARI 18, LAR 16 · LAR was a 13.5-pt favorite
- TEN 26, IND 20 · IND was a 6.5-pt favorite
- SEA 14, DEN 17 · SEA was a 3-pt favorite
- BAL 10, CLE 13 · BAL was a 3-pt favorite
- HOU 34, JAX 31 · JAX was a 2.5-pt favorite
Biggest covers
- ARI 18, LAR 16 · ARI by 15.5 vs LAR -13.5
- TEN 26, IND 20 · TEN by 12.5 vs IND -6.5
- DAL 13, GB 23 · GB by 11.5 vs DAL -1.5
Closest finishes · 5 decided by 3 or fewer
- ARI 18, LAR 16 · decided by 2
- SEA 14, DEN 17 · decided by 3
- HOU 34, JAX 31 · decided by 3
Highest scoring: HOU 34, JAX 31 (65). Lowest: BAL 10, CLE 13 (23).
Every game: projected vs. final
ProjectedFinalShowing · Show all games
Seattle Seahawks
Denver BroncosLine SEA -2.5 → SEA -3 (0.5 toward SEA, didn’t cover)·Total 43.5 → 40.5 ▼3
DEN W U31 vs 40.5 Model SEA ✗ Upset
Houston Texans
Jacksonville JaguarsLine HOU -1.5 → JAX -2.5 (4 toward JAX, didn’t cover)·Total 41.5 → 42.5 ▲1
HOU W O65 vs 42.5 Model JAX ✗ Upset
Chicago Bears
Atlanta FalconsLine CHI -3 → CHI -1.5 (1.5 toward ATL, didn’t cover)·Total 47.5 → 50.5 ▲3
CHI W O54 vs 50.5 Model CHI ✓
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland BrownsLine BAL -6.5 → BAL -3 (3.5 toward CLE, covered)·Total 44.5 → 40.5 ▼4
CLE W U23 vs 40.5 Model BAL ✗ Upset
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis ColtsLine IND -3.5 → IND -6.5 (3 toward IND, didn’t cover)·Total 48.5 → 43.5 ▼5
TEN W O46 vs 43.5 Model IND ✗ Upset
New York Jets
New England PatriotsLine NE -9.5 → NE -7.5 (2 toward NYJ, covered)
NYJ W O45 vs 42.5 Model NE ✓
New Orleans Saints
New York GiantsLine NYG -2.5 → NO -1.5 (4 toward NO, covered)·Total 45.5 → 46.5 ▲1
NO W O61 vs 46.5 Model NO ✓
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia EaglesLine PHI -6.5 → CAR -3 (9.5 toward CAR, covered)·Total 43.5 → 39.5 ▼4
CAR W U39 vs 39.5 Model CAR ✓
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay BuccaneersLine TB -1.5 → PIT -2.5 (4 toward PIT, covered)·Total 45.5 → 37.5 ▼8
PIT W O45 vs 37.5 Model PIT ✓
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles RamsTotal 46.5 → 51.5 ▲5
ARI W U34 vs 51.5 Model LAR ✗ Upset
Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City ChiefsLine KC -2.5 → KC -7.5 (5 toward KC, covered)·Total 46.5 → 41.5 ▼5
KC W U28 vs 41.5 Model KC ✓
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas RaidersLine BUF -6.5 → BUF -5.5 (1 toward LV, covered)·Total 47.5 → 54.5 ▲7
LV W O63 vs 54.5 Model BUF ✓
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay PackersLine GB -3 → DAL -1.5 (4.5 toward DAL, didn’t cover)·Total 51.5 → 54.5 ▲3
GB W U36 vs 54.5 Model DAL ✗ Upset
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ersLine SF -5.5 → SF -7.5 (2 toward SF, didn’t cover)·Total 50.5 → 51.5 ▲1
WSH W U40 vs 51.5 Model SF ✓
Keep reading
Projections are the model's walk-forward numbers: each game uses ratings from before its week, the same figures shown on the game cards. ATS and totals use the closing line.