NCAAF · 2026 · Weekly recap
Week 5: model vs. final scores
Published Oct 4, 2026
56 games final
56 games final
Published Oct 4, 2026 · 56 games final
56 games went final in Week 5. Favorites went 27-28-1 against the spread with 15 outright upsets, games went 32-24 over/under, and our model picked 41 of 56 winners using only data from before each game.
Key takeaways
15 outright upsets
Biggest: BGSU won as a 10.5-pt underdog, BGSU 24, M-OH 20
Totals went the way they moved in 25 of 49
▲ up 19: 12 Over · ▼ down 30: 13 Under
Model picked 41 of 56 winners
73%, margin within 7 pts in 39% of games · season 221-50 (82%)
Avg margin miss
13.2 pts
projected vs final margin · total points off by 13.1
Week 5 vs. the season
Season to date: 271 games over 5 weeks, through Week 5. Diff = this week’s rate minus the season’s, in points.
| Week 5 | Season | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites ATS | 27-28-1 49% | 139-127-5 52% | ▼3 |
| Favorites straight up | 41-15 73% | 221-50 82% | ▼9 |
| Home teams ATS | 30-25-1 55% | 137-123-5 53% | ▲2 |
| Overs | 32-24 57% | 141-130 52% | ▲5 |
| Line-move side ATS | 30-17-1 64% | 120-105-5 53% | ▲11 |
| Totals went the way they moved | 25-24 51% | 118-111 52% | ▼1 |
| Model winners | 41-15 73% | 221-50 82% | ▼9 |
| Model ATS | 25-27 48% | 129-121 52% | ▼4 |
| Model O/U picks | 32-24 57% | 145-126 54% | ▲3 |
| Points per game | 52.8 | 52.5 | ▲0.3 |
| Model margin miss (pts) | 13.2 | 11.5 | ▲1.7 |
Line movement
Opening line to closing line, and whether following the market’s move paid off
Spreads
Biggest moves · badge: did that team cover?
- MIA 41, CLEM 13 · MIA -7 → MIA -14, 7 toward MIA W
- TXST 29, SDSU 31 · TXST -4.5 → TXST -10, 5.5 toward TXST L
- BGSU 24, M-OH 20 · M-OH -15.5 → M-OH -10.5, 5 toward BGSU W
- ARMY 29, LT 31 · ARMY -3.5 → LT -1.5, 5 toward LT W
- UK 35, SC 34 · SC -7 → SC -2.5, 4.5 toward UK W
Totals
The result went the way the total moved in 25 of 49 games (51%).
Biggest moves
- ND 37, UNC 26 · 55.5 → 46.5 ▼9 · 63 pts O
- BGSU 24, M-OH 20 · 50.5 → 41.5 ▼9 · 44 pts O
- VAN 14, UGA 38 · 57.5 → 49.5 ▼8 · 52 pts O
- UTEP 7, UNM 61 · 53.5 → 47.5 ▼6 · 68 pts O
- MIA 41, CLEM 13 · 55.5 → 49.5 ▼6 · 54 pts O
Projection vs. result
Each dot is a game (hover for the score, click for the game card). On the dashed line = the model was exact. Green = model got the winner (left) or the total side (right); red = it missed.
Home margin
Total points
Highlights
Model's closest calls
- OSU 31, IOWA 14 · projected 31-16 · OSU off by 0, IOWA off by 2
- VAN 14, UGA 38 · projected 15-40 · VAN off by 1, UGA off by 2
- USU 18, BOIS 37 · projected 16-36 · USU off by 2, BOIS off by 1
Biggest misses
- STAN 3, WAKE 57 · projected 18-32 · STAN off by 15, WAKE off by 25
- BAY 55, ASU 19 · projected 24-27 · BAY off by 31, ASU off by 8
- WVU 42, ISU 45 · projected 23-27 · WVU off by 19, ISU off by 18
Upsets & covers
Outright upsets
- BGSU 24, M-OH 20 · M-OH was a 10.5-pt favorite
- TXST 29, SDSU 31 · TXST was a 10-pt favorite
- PUR 24, ILL 17 · ILL was a 9.5-pt favorite
- MICH 14, MINN 20 · MICH was a 6.5-pt favorite
- LOU 28, NCSU 31 · LOU was a 5.5-pt favorite
Biggest covers
- STAN 3, WAKE 57 · WAKE by 39.5 vs WAKE -14.5
- BAY 55, ASU 19 · BAY by 39.5 vs ASU -3.5
- MTSU 0, KU 55 · KU by 33.5 vs KU -21.5
Closest finishes · 12 decided by 3 or fewer
- UNT 45, TLSA 44 · decided by 1
- SYR 42, CONN 41 · decided by 1
- UK 35, SC 34 · decided by 1
Highest scoring: UNT 45, TLSA 44 (89). Lowest: NAVY 9, AFA 14 (23).
Every game: projected vs. final
ProjectedFinalShowing · Show all games
Western Kentucky
New Mexico StateTotal 53.5 → 55.5 ▲2
NMSU W U47 vs 55.5 Model NMSU ✓
North Texas
TulsaLine UNT -1.5 → UNT -3 (1.5 toward UNT, didn’t cover)·Total 57.5 → 56.5 ▼1
TLSA W O89 vs 56.5 Model UNT ✓
Pittsburgh
Virginia TechLine VT -5.5 → VT -1.5 (4 toward PITT, covered)·Total 56.5 → 53.5 ▼3
PITT W O68 vs 53.5 Model VT ✗ Upset
Liberty
DelawareTotal 50.5 → 51.5 ▲1
LIB W U44 vs 51.5 Model LIB ✓
Penn State
NorthwesternLine PSU -7 → PSU -3 (4 toward NU, covered)·Total 48.5 → 46.5 ▼2
NU W O47 vs 46.5 Model PSU ✗ Upset
Memphis
CharlotteLine MEM -21.5 → MEM -18.5 (3 toward CLT, didn’t cover)·Total 54.5 → 52.5 ▼2
MEM W O67 vs 52.5 Model MEM ✓
Notre Dame
North CarolinaLine ND -24.5 → ND -21 (3.5 toward UNC, covered)·Total 55.5 → 46.5 ▼9
UNC W O63 vs 46.5 Model ND ✓
Alabama
Mississippi StateLine ALA -3 → ALA -5.5 (2.5 toward ALA, covered)·Total 58.5 → 62.5 ▲4
ALA W O79 vs 62.5 Model ALA ✓
UCF
HoustonLine HOU -12.5 → HOU -10.5 (2 toward UCF, covered)·Total 51.5 → 50.5 ▼1
UCF W U44 vs 50.5 Model HOU ✓
Boston College
SMULine SMU -21 → SMU -21.5 (0.5 toward SMU, didn’t cover)·Total 56.5 → 55.5 ▼1
BC W U41 vs 55.5 Model SMU ✓
Middle Tennessee
KansasTotal 52.5 → 51.5 ▼1
KU W O55 vs 51.5 Model KU ✓
West Virginia
Iowa StateLine ISU -1.5 → ISU -3 (1.5 toward ISU)
P O87 vs 53.5 Model ISU ✓
Stanford
Wake ForestLine WAKE -12.5 → WAKE -14.5 (2 toward WAKE, covered)
WAKE W O60 vs 54.5 Model WAKE ✓
Syracuse
UConnTotal 53.5 → 51.5 ▼2
CONN W O83 vs 51.5 Model SYR ✓
Michigan
MinnesotaLine MICH -8.5 → MICH -6.5 (2 toward MINN, covered)·Total 44.5 → 41.5 ▼3
MINN W U34 vs 41.5 Model MICH ✗ Upset
Navy
Air ForceLine AFA -1.5 → AFA -2.5 (1 toward AFA, covered)·Total 49.5 → 45.5 ▼4
AFA W U23 vs 45.5 Model AFA ✓
Michigan State
WisconsinLine WIS -10 → WIS -8.5 (1.5 toward MSU, didn’t cover)·Total 44.5 → 43.5 ▼1
WIS W U34 vs 43.5 Model WIS ✓
Vanderbilt
GeorgiaLine UGA -23.5 → UGA -25.5 (2 toward UGA, didn’t cover)·Total 57.5 → 49.5 ▼8
VAN W O52 vs 49.5 Model UGA ✓
Western Michigan
BuffaloLine WMU -16.5 → WMU -13.5 (3 toward BUFF, covered)·Total 51.5 → 46.5 ▼5
BUFF W U37 vs 46.5 Model WMU ✓
Toledo
Ball StateLine TOL -17.5 → TOL -20.5 (3 toward TOL, didn’t cover)·Total 51.5 → 52.5 ▲1
BALL W O63 vs 52.5 Model TOL ✓
Ohio State
IowaLine OSU -14 → OSU -14.5 (0.5 toward OSU, covered)·Total 44.5 → 46.5 ▲2
OSU W U45 vs 46.5 Model OSU ✓
Auburn
TennesseeLine TENN -7.5 → TENN -6 (1.5 toward AUB, didn’t cover)·Total 57.5 → 54.5 ▼3
TENN W U38 vs 54.5 Model TENN ✓
California
UNLVTotal 52.5 → 51.5 ▼1
UNLV W O70 vs 51.5 Model UNLV ✓
Louisville
NC StateLine LOU -7.5 → LOU -5.5 (2 toward NCSU, covered)·Total 59.5 → 56.5 ▼3
NCSU W O59 vs 56.5 Model LOU ✗ Upset
Virginia
Florida StateFSU W U45 vs 51.5 Model UVA ✗ Upset
Wyoming
North Dakota StateLine NDSU -21 → NDSU -17.5 (3.5 toward WYO, didn’t cover)·Total 47.5 → 44.5 ▼3
NDSU W U28 vs 44.5 Model NDSU ✓
Akron
Central MichiganLine CMU -5.5 → CMU -6.5 (1 toward CMU, covered)·Total 46.5 → 47.5 ▲1
CMU W O58 vs 47.5 Model CMU ✓
Eastern Michigan
MassachusettsLine MASS -2.5 → MASS -5.5 (3 toward MASS, didn’t cover)·Total 48.5 → 49.5 ▲1
EMU W O52 vs 49.5 Model MASS ✗ Upset
Ohio
Kent StateLine OHIO -5.5 → OHIO -3.5 (2 toward KENT, covered)·Total 52.5 → 50.5 ▼2
KENT W U23 vs 50.5 Model OHIO ✓
Bowling Green
Miami (OH)Line M-OH -15.5 → M-OH -10.5 (5 toward BGSU, covered)·Total 50.5 → 41.5 ▼9
BGSU W O44 vs 41.5 Model M-OH ✗ Upset
Old Dominion
Georgia StateLine ODU -1.5 → GAST -1.5 (3 toward GAST, covered)·Total 52.5 → 51.5 ▼1
GAST W O52 vs 51.5 Model GAST ✓
Marshall
James MadisonLine JMU -13.5 → JMU -14.5 (1 toward JMU, covered)
JMU W O62 vs 55.5 Model JMU ✓
Florida
MissouriLine FLA -2.5 → FLA -5.5 (3 toward FLA, didn’t cover)·Total 53.5 → 57.5 ▲4
MIZ W O62 vs 57.5 Model FLA ✗ Upset
Maryland
NebraskaLine NEB -12.5 → NEB -15.5 (3 toward NEB, covered)·Total 53.5 → 52.5 ▼1
NEB W O71 vs 52.5 Model NEB ✓
UTEP
New MexicoLine UNM -21 → UNM -23.5 (2.5 toward UNM, covered)·Total 53.5 → 47.5 ▼6
UNM W O68 vs 47.5 Model UNM ✓
Kentucky
South CarolinaLine SC -7 → SC -2.5 (4.5 toward UK, covered)·Total 49.5 → 52.5 ▲3
UK W O69 vs 52.5 Model SC ✗ Upset
Purdue
IllinoisLine ILL -10 → ILL -9.5 (0.5 toward PUR, covered)·Total 60.5 → 62.5 ▲2
PUR W U41 vs 62.5 Model ILL ✗ Upset
Oregon State
Colorado StateLine ORST -3.5 → ORST -7 (3.5 toward ORST, covered)·Total 59.5 → 60.5 ▲1
ORST W O82 vs 60.5 Model ORST ✓
BYU
TCUTotal 52.5 → 48.5 ▼4
BYU W U27 vs 48.5 Model BYU ✓
Arkansas
Texas A&MLine TA&M -14.5 → TA&M -13.5 (1 toward ARK, didn’t cover)
TA&M W U41 vs 51.5 Model TA&M ✓
UTSA
RiceLine UTSA -12.5 → UTSA -11.5 (1 toward RICE, covered)·Total 52.5 → 56.5 ▲4
RICE W U30 vs 56.5 Model UTSA ✓
Georgia Southern
Coastal CarolinaLine CCU -1.5 → GASO -2.5 (4 toward GASO, covered)·Total 52.5 → 53.5 ▲1
GASO W O55 vs 53.5 Model GASO ✓
UL Monroe
South AlabamaLine USA -14.5 → USA -12.5 (2 toward ULM, didn’t cover)·Total 55.5 → 57.5 ▲2
USA W O87 vs 57.5 Model USA ✓
Miami
ClemsonLine MIA -7 → MIA -14 (7 toward MIA, covered)·Total 55.5 → 49.5 ▼6
MIA W O54 vs 49.5 Model MIA ✓
Texas Tech
ColoradoLine TTU -14.5 → TTU -13.5 (1 toward COLO, didn’t cover)
TTU W U36 vs 50.5 Model TTU ✓
Washington
USCLine USC -10 → USC -7.5 (2.5 toward WASH, covered)·Total 57.5 → 58.5 ▲1
WASH W U46 vs 58.5 Model USC ✓
Utah State
Boise StateLine BOIS -20.5 → BOIS -19.5 (1 toward USU, covered)·Total 49.5 → 50.5 ▲1
USU W O55 vs 50.5 Model BOIS ✓
Temple
South FloridaLine USF -6.5 → USF -5.5 (1 toward TEM, covered)·Total 52.5 → 50.5 ▼2
TEM W U30 vs 50.5 Model USF ✗ Upset
Army
Louisiana TechLine ARMY -3.5 → LT -1.5 (5 toward LT, covered)·Total 44.5 → 46.5 ▲2
LT W O60 vs 46.5 Model LT ✓
Indiana
RutgersLine IU -23.5 → IU -24.5 (1 toward IU, covered)·Total 53.5 → 56.5 ▲3
IU W O62 vs 56.5 Model IU ✓
Arkansas State
LouisianaLine UL -4 → UL -4.5 (0.5 toward UL, didn’t cover)
ARST W U43 vs 49.5 Model UL ✓
Fresno State
Washington StateLine WSU -1.5 → WSU -2.5 (1 toward WSU, didn’t cover)·Total 45.5 → 44.5 ▼1
FRES W U32 vs 44.5 Model WSU ✗ Upset
Baylor
Arizona StateTotal 51.5 → 49.5 ▼2
BAY W O74 vs 49.5 Model ASU ✗ Upset
Texas State
San Diego StateLine TXST -4.5 → TXST -10 (5.5 toward TXST, didn’t cover)·Total 60.5 → 57.5 ▼3
SDSU W O60 vs 57.5 Model TXST ✗ Upset
Cincinnati
ArizonaLine ARIZ -8.5 → ARIZ -7 (1.5 toward CIN, didn’t cover)·Total 54.5 → 56.5 ▲2
ARIZ W U41 vs 56.5 Model ARIZ ✓
San José State
Hawai'iLine HAW -5.5 → HAW -2.5 (3 toward SJSU, covered)·Total 52.5 → 51.5 ▼1
SJSU W U36 vs 51.5 Model HAW ✗ Upset
Keep reading
Projections are the model's walk-forward numbers: each game uses ratings from before its week, the same figures shown on the game cards. ATS and totals use the closing line.