Research · 2026 season · October 6, 2026
Over before the 4th: how often 2026 totals were beaten by the 3rd quarter
NFL and college football games whose combined score had already passed the closing total after three quarters, which teams keep doing it, and what the model expects from their next games.
Over by the 3rd quarter means both teams together had already scored more than the betting total before the 4th quarter started.
Most overs still need the 4th quarter
About 3 in 4 overs this season cashed only in the 4th quarter or overtime.
Colorado State: 4 of 6 games over by the 3rd
The most in college football this season.
NFL · 2026
1 in 10 games was over before the 4th quarter
9 of 94 games · 10%
When the over cashed
2026 against 2023–25
202694 games
10%over by Q3
2023–25780 games
13%over by Q3
By halftimeIn Q3In Q4In OTStayed under
Of the 49 NFL overs this season, 18% had already cashed by the end of the 3rd quarter (25% in the three seasons before). The rest needed the 4th quarter or overtime.
Week by week
Share of games over by the 3rd quarter
13%0%19%6%13%7%0%
1234567
Week · dashed line = 13% in the three seasons before
By closing total
Higher totals need more points, but get more scoring
Under 40
0% 0/10
40–44.5
18% 7/40
45–49.5
7% 2/28
50+
0% 0/16
By size of the spread
Favorite’s closing line
Pick–3
14% 6/43
3.5–7
6% 2/33
7.5–13.5
6% 1/18
14+
— 0/0
Teams whose games get there early
3+ games · games over by the 3rd quarter
| Team | Over by Q3 | All overs |
|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 2 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 2 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
 Carolina Panthers | 1 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 1 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 1 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
 Buffalo Bills | 1 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 1 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
Next up for these teams
Their next games: the market total, our projection and the chance of the over
| Game | Why it’s here | Total | Model total | Over chance | Over by Q3 (est.) | Model view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sun, Oct 25 · Week 7 |
Houston Texans 2 of 6 over by Q3 |
42.5 | 44 | 54% | ~13% | No lean · 1.4 pts |
Sun, Oct 25 · Week 7 |
Pittsburgh Steelers 2 of 6 over by Q3 |
44.5 | 45 | 52% | ~12% | No lean · 0.7 pts |
Sun, Oct 25 · Week 7 |
Seattle Seahawks 2 of 6 over by Q3 |
42.5 | 43.5 | 53% | ~13% | No lean · 1.1 pts |
Sun, Oct 25 · Week 7 |
Carolina Panthers 1 of 5 over by Q3 |
44.5 | 44.5 | 50% | ~12% | No lean · 0.0 pts |
Sun, Oct 25 · Week 7 |
Cincinnati Bengals 1 of 5 over by Q3 |
48.5 | 49.5 | 53% | ~12% | No lean · 0.9 pts |
Sun, Oct 25 · Week 7 |
Arizona Cardinals 1 of 6 over by Q3 |
43.5 | 44 | 51% | ~12% | No lean · 0.4 pts |
Sun, Nov 1 · Week 8 |
Buffalo Bills 1 of 6 over by Q3 |
52.5 | 49.5 | 40% | ~9% | No lean · 3.2 pts |
Sun, Oct 25 · Week 7 |
Indianapolis Colts 1 of 6 over by Q3 |
41.5 | 43.5 | 56% | ~13% | No lean · 2.0 pts |
If it isn’t over after 3 quarters
2026: points the game still needed going into the 4th, and how often it got there
1–3 pts
80%
4 of 5
4–7 pts
90%
9 of 10
8–10 pts
90%
9 of 10
11–14 pts
75%
9 of 12
15–17 pts
14%
2 of 14
18–21 pts
27%
3 of 11
22+ pts
17%
4 of 23
College · 2026
1 in 7 games was over before the 4th quarter
76 of 517 games · 15%
When the over cashed
2026 against 2023–25
2026517 games
15%over by Q3
2023–252624 games
17%over by Q3
By halftimeIn Q3In Q4In OTStayed under
Of the 272 college overs this season, 28% had already cashed by the end of the 3rd quarter (33% in the three seasons before). The rest needed the 4th quarter or overtime.
Week by week
Share of games over by the 3rd quarter
12%19%20%7%19%12%13%29%
12345678
Week · dashed line = 17% in the three seasons before
By closing total
Higher totals need more points, but get more scoring
Under 45
18% 7/39
45–54.5
13% 39/304
55–64.5
17% 28/163
65+
18% 2/11
By size of the spread
Favorite’s closing line
Pick–3
13% 11/83
3.5–7
10% 10/97
7.5–13.5
8% 8/96
14+
20% 47/241
Teams whose games get there early
4+ games · games over by the 3rd quarter
| Team | Over by Q3 | All overs |
|---|---|---|
 Colorado State | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
 Florida Atlantic | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
 Georgia State | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
 UL Monroe | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
 Arizona State | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
 Alabama | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
 Old Dominion | 3 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
 South Alabama | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
Over by halftime
The earliest overs this season
Q2SUU @ CSU Week 269 pts vs a 57.5 total
By quarter: 24 · 69 · 72 · 82 · final 24–58
Q2NWST @ LT Week 166 pts vs a 56.5 total
By quarter: 24 · 66 · 80 · 86 · final 6–80
Q2MORG @ ASU Week 156 pts vs a 52.5 total
By quarter: 35 · 56 · 77 · 77 · final 7–70
By quarter: 28 · 53 · 60 · 78 · final 25–53
By quarter: 24 · 47 · 53 · 66 · final 46–20
Next up for these teams
Their next games: the market total, our projection and the chance of the over
| Game | Why it’s here | Total | Model total | Over chance | Over by Q3 (est.) | Model view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sat, Oct 24 · Week 8 |
Colorado State 4 of 6 over by Q3 |
61.5 | 56.5 | 38% | ~12% | No lean · 5.0 pts |
Sat, Oct 24 · Week 8 |
Florida Atlantic 4 of 6 over by Q3 |
53.5 | 54 | 51% | ~16% | No lean · 0.4 pts |
Sat, Oct 24 · Week 8 |
Georgia State 4 of 6 over by Q3 |
57.5 | 59 | 53% | ~16% | No lean · 1.4 pts |
Sat, Oct 24 · Week 8 |
UL Monroe 4 of 6 over by Q3 |
50.5 | 50 | 48% | ~16% | No lean · 0.7 pts |
Sat, Oct 24 · Week 8 |
Arizona State 3 of 6 over by Q3 |
53.5 | 53.5 | 50% | ~16% | No lean · 0.2 pts |
Sat, Oct 24 · Week 8 |
Alabama 3 of 7 over by Q3 |
50.5 | 47.5 | 43% | ~14% | No lean · 2.8 pts |
Sat, Oct 24 · Week 8 |
Old Dominion 3 of 7 over by Q3 |
45.5 | 41.5 | 40% | ~13% | No lean · 4.2 pts |
Sat, Oct 31 · Week 9 |
South Alabama 3 of 7 over by Q3 |
— | 58.5 | — | — | No line yet |
If it isn’t over after 3 quarters
2026: points the game still needed going into the 4th, and how often it got there
1–3 pts
95%
38 of 40
4–7 pts
89%
41 of 46
8–10 pts
78%
36 of 46
11–14 pts
54%
39 of 72
15–17 pts
38%
15 of 39
18–21 pts
30%
17 of 56
22+ pts
7%
10 of 142
How we measure it
Quarter scores come from ESPN for every finished game with a closing spread and total; the closing total is the line just before kickoff. A game counts as over by the 3rd quarter when the points after three quarters already exceed that total. Timing is to the quarter: a game that went over with seconds left in the 3rd counts. Comparisons use the 2023–2025 seasons.
This describes what happened; it isn’t a betting system. Totals are set so overs and unders split about evenly, and none of these patterns has shown an edge against the market in our backtests.