1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

58 games · 2026 · Week 6 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games58100%By halftime12%In Q3610%In Q41933%In OT00%Stayed under3255%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands59%Over cashed610%Leader lost the game47%
45% went over. Of the 26 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.

All 58 games

2026 · Week 6 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 6
 BOIS -8.5 48.5 28454869 Q4 FRES Q1 38–31
2026 · Week 6
 ASU -20.5 51.5 10233042 U HAW Q1 12–30
2026 · Week 6
 JMU -7 51.5 10163051 U GASO Q4
Late cover flip
 27–24
2026 · Week 6
 UTAH -15.5 49.5 14385165 Q3 UTAH Q4 24–41
2026 · Week 6
 MINN -2.5 48.5 10234054 Q4 PUR Q1 13–41
2026 · Week 6
 ALA -2.5 51.5 3243437 U UGA Q3 20–17
2026 · Week 6
 USC -1.5 54.5 14344454 U USC Q3 31–23
2026 · Week 6
 UVA -14 49.5 14243153 Q4 SYR Q1
Late over
 25–28
2026 · Week 6
 AFA -7 48.5 7213535 U AFA Q3 28–7
2026 · Week 6
 LT -3 48.5 0233763 Q4 UL Q3
Lead lost
 31–32
2026 · Week 6
 LSU -9.5 50.5 1738415469 Q4 UK Q1
Lead lost
 34–35
2026 · Week 6
 MEM -15.5 55.5 14233751 U MEM Q4 13–38
2026 · Week 6
 NEV -10 48.5 7203043 U NEV Q3 30–13
2026 · Week 6
 NDSU -3 47.5 7141720 U UNLV Q1 7–13
2026 · Week 6
 MRSH -4.5 57.5 3133448 U CCU Q1 27–21
2026 · Week 6
 ORST -14.5 52.5 14457380 Q3 ORST Q2 14–66
2026 · Week 6
 OSU -31.5 56.5 17415461 Q4 MD Q1
Late over
 16–45
2026 · Week 6
 TENN -13.5 51.5 072441 U ARK Q1 24–17
2026 · Week 6
 TEM -3.5 55.5 28414454 U CONN Q1 34–20
2026 · Week 6
 TEX -7.5 40.5 7242751 Q4 OU Q3 24–27
2026 · Week 6
 ND -40.5 55.5 14375165 Q4 ND Q4 7–58
2026 · Week 6
 MISS -9.5 54.5 17455269 Q4 MISS Q1 52–17
2026 · Week 6
 ORE -10 57.5 9161632 U UCLA Q1 17–15
2026 · Week 6
 KSU -2.5 55.5 10244451 U HOU Q1 35–16
2026 · Week 6
 DUKE -4.5 45.5 7243953 Q4 GT Q1
Late over
 25–28
2026 · Week 6
 VT -11.5 51.5 0242745 U CAL Q1
Lead lost
 20–25
2026 · Week 6
 ILL -2.5 48.5 1027406275 Q4 MSU Q4
Late cover flip
 38–37
2026 · Week 6
 UNT -27.5 58.5 13505760 Q4 UNT Q2 10–50
2026 · Week 6
 NAVY -3 47.5 21344660 Q4 NAVY Q4
Late cover flip
 26–34
2026 · Week 6
 EMU -4.5 51.5 10273348 U AKR Q1
Lead lost
 25–23
2026 · Week 6
 TOL -18.5 54.5 6131631 U BUFF Q1 23–8
2026 · Week 6
 OHIO -2.5 45.5 14313845 U OHIO Q1 14–31
2026 · Week 6
 WMU -13.5 43.5 7283145 Q4 WMU Q2
Late over
 7–38
2026 · Week 6
 M-OH -6 44.5 21242739 U MASS Q4
Late cover flip
 20–19
2026 · Week 6
 ECU -10 46.5 7102340 U ECU Q4 12–28
2026 · Week 6
 APP -8.5 45.5 00513 U ODU Q1 10–3
2026 · Week 6
 FLA -10.5 59.5 14274457 U SC Q1 38–19
2026 · Week 6
 NU -34.5 53.5 14455959 Q3 BALL Q1 14–45
2026 · Week 6
 IU -9.5 48.5 13131637 U NEB Q1 20–17
2026 · Week 6
 MIZ -4.5 50.5 3132333 U MIZ Q2 6–27
2026 · Week 6
 OKST -10.5 53.5 21424570 Q4 OKST Q4 28–42
2026 · Week 6
 PITT -3.5 47.5 7172438 U UNC Q2 21–17
2026 · Week 6
 ARIZ -3.5 61.5 17416283 Q3 ARIZ Q1 52–31
2026 · Week 6
 WAKE -4 56.5 14244552 U WAKE Q3 38–14
2026 · Week 6
 ARMY -5.5 48.5 7101737 U TULN Q2 17–20
2026 · Week 6
 BGSU -9.5 43.5 3202748 Q4 BGSU Q2 10–38
2026 · Week 6
 BYU -11.5 46.5 7172434 U BYU Q3
Late cover flip
 10–24
2026 · Week 6
 WASH -3 41.5 13305265 Q3 IOWA Q1 41–24
2026 · Week 6
 USU -4 44.5 6192633 U WSU Q1 16–17
2026 · Week 6
 SJSU -4.5 42.5 313192629 U WYO Q4 16–13
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 58

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 29
Q2 12% 7
Q3 19% 11
Q4 19% 11
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 72% and covered 66% of 53 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 77% and covered 79% of 57 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over7100% 7
1–35100% 5
4–73100% 3
8–10580% 4
11–14944% 4
15–17250% 1
18–21922% 2
22+180% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.