Mizzou Arena · at Missouri · Conference game
Closing line
MIZ -2.5✓ ARK covered by 6.5
MIZ -2.5✓ ARK covered by 6.5Closing total163.5Over by 8.5
 ARK | This season | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| 22-8 | Record | 20-10 |
| 20-10 | ATS | 14-16 |
| 17-13 | O/U | 13-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ARK 84–81 MIZ · ✓ ARK (62%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 39 | 35 | 14 | 88 |
| MIZ | 36 | 38 | 10 | 84 |
1st half: ARK 39, MIZ 36 (ARK by 3). The model had ARK by 2.3 and a total of 76.9 (actual 75).
Team stats
| ARK | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-67 49% | Field goals | 30-63 48% |
| 8-16 50% | 3-pointers | 6-20 30% |
| 14-22 64% | Free throws | 18-24 75% |
| 38 13 off | Rebounds | 34 10 off |
| 13 | Assists | 11 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Wagner G | 45 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4-10 | 0-4 |
| Meleek Thomas G | 45 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 10-23 | 5-6 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 44 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7-13 | 2-4 |
| Billy Richmond III G | 39 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Nick Pringle F | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malique Ewin F | 31 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 6-12 | 1-1 |
| Isaiah Sealy F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Karter Knox, Darius Acuff Jr., Amere Brown, Jaden Karuletwa, Ayden Kelley, Paulo Semedo, Karim Rtail, Elmir Dzafic
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 43 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 11-20 | 1-3 |
| Trent Pierce G | 39 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 5-11 | 3-7 |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. C | 36 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Stone G | 30 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| T.O. Barrett F | 29 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-12 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Robinson II G | 33 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Jacob Crews G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Trent Burns C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aaron Rowe, Luke Northweather, Nicholas Randall, Sebastian Mack, Jevon Porter, Annor Boateng
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIZ -2.5
ModelARK -3.6
Model edgeARK +6.1
W ARK covered
Total
Market163.5
Model164.6
Model edgeOver 1.1
W Over
Projected score
ARK 84.1 · MIZ 80.5
ARK 88 · MIZ 84
Win probability
ARK 62%
1st half
Spread
ARK -2.3
ARK -3.0
Total
76.9
75 points
Projected score
ARK 39.6 · MIZ 37.3
ARK 39 · MIZ 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARK -3.5
6 → MIZ
CloseMIZ -2.5
6 pts toward MIZ
Total
Open162.5
▲ 1
Close163.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ARK +130 · MIZ -155
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARK -3.5 · closed MIZ -2.5 · moved 6 toward MIZmodel ARK -3.5
model ARK -3.5
Opened 162.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 1 upmodel 164.5
model 164.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| MIZ | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
ARK 7–2 MIZARK leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ARK has won the last 2 meetings · ARK 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2025-26 | MIZ 86 @ ARK 94 | ARK -9.5 | MIZ W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | MIZ 85 @ ARK 92 | ARK -1.5 | ARK W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | ARK 65 @ MIZ 83 | MIZ -5.5 | MIZ W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | MIZ 73 @ ARK 88 | ARK -5.5 | ARK W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | ARK 91 @ MIZ 84 | MIZ -5.5 | ARK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arkansas
30 games played
Straight up
22-8
73% wins
Against the spread
20-10
67% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-13
57% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs JKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs LOU | W 89-80 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs FRES | W 82-58 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs TTU | W 93-86 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 16 | vs QUC | W 108-80 | -23.5 | W +4.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | vs HOU | L 85-94 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs JMU | W 103-74 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 3 | vs TENN | W 86-75 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 7 | @ MISS | W 94-87 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | @ AUB | L 73-95 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | vs SC | W 108-74 | -12.5 | W +21.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | @ UGA | L 76-90 | +2.5 | L −11.5 | 181.5 | U 166 |
| Jan 20 | vs VAN | W 93-68 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 173.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 24 | vs LSU | W 85-81 | -10.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 27 | @ OU | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 167.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 31 | vs UK | L 77-85 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 7 | @ MSST | W 88-68 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 10 | @LSU | W 91-62 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 14 | vsAUB | W 88-75 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 165.5 | U 163 |
| Feb 18 | @ ALA | L 115-117 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 181.5 | O 232 |
| Feb 21 | vsMIZ | W 94-86 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 159.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 25 | vs TA&M | W 99-84 | -7.5 | W +7.5 | 170.5 | O 183 |
| Feb 28 | @ FLA | L 77-111 | +9.5 | L −24.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
| Mar 4 | vs TEX | W 105-85 | -6.5 | W +13.5 | 163.5 | O 190 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+10.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
+4.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+9.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+4.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
−3.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 103-74
+5.5
3
vsTENN
TENNW 86-75
+12.5
7
@MISS
MISSW 94-87
+3.5
10
@AUB
AUBL 73-95
−19.5
14
vsSC
SCW 108-74
+21.5
17
@UGA
UGAL 76-90
−11.5
20
vsVAN
VANW 93-68
+23.5
24
vsLSU
LSUW 85-81
−6.5
27
@OU
OUW 83-79
+0.5
31
vsUK
UKL 77-85
−14.5
7
@MSST
MSSTW 88-68
+14.5
10
@LSU
LSUW 91-62
+24.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 88-75
+5.5
18
@ALA
ALAL 115-117
+1.5
21
vsMIZ
MIZW 94-86
−1.5
25
vsTA&M
TA&MW 99-84
+7.5
28
@FLA
FLAL 77-111
−24.5
4
vsTEX
TEXW 105-85
+13.5
covered 20didn’t cover 10avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+2.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
−21.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+23.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+18.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
+32.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 103-74
+17.5
3
vsTENN
TENNW 86-75
+2.5
7
@MISS
MISSW 94-87
+27.5
10
@AUB
AUBL 73-95
−1.5
14
vsSC
SCW 108-74
+26.5
17
@UGA
UGAL 76-90
−15.5
20
vsVAN
VANW 93-68
−12.5
24
vsLSU
LSUW 85-81
+2.5
27
@OU
OUW 83-79
−5.5
31
vsUK
UKL 77-85
+2.5
7
@MSST
MSSTW 88-68
−7.5
10
@LSU
LSUW 91-62
−6.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 88-75
−2.5
18
@ALA
ALAL 115-117
+50.5
21
vsMIZ
MIZW 94-86
+20.5
25
vsTA&M
TA&MW 99-84
+12.5
28
@FLA
FLAL 77-111
+18.5
4
vsTEX
TEXW 105-85
+26.5
over 17under 13avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Missouri
30 games played
Straight up
20-10
67% wins
Against the spread
14-16
47% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-17
43% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ HOW | W 88-67 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 7 | vs SEMO | W 89-84 | -25.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 9 | vs VMI | W 106-68 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MINN | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 17 | vs PV | W 91-73 | -35.5 | L −17.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 20 | vs SDAK | W 102-68 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 171.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs SCST | W 98-66 | -34.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs CLE | W 86-59 | -31.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | @ ND | L 71-76 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs KU | L 60-80 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 11 | vs ALST | W 85-77 | -26.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | vs BCU | W 82-60 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs ILL | L 48-91 | +8.5 | L −34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | vsFLA | W 76-74 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 7 | @UK | W 73-68 | +12.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | @MISS | L 69-76 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | vsAUB | W 84-74 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | @LSU | L 70-78 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | vsUGA | L 72-74 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 163.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 24 | vsOU | W 88-87 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 151.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 27 | @ALA | L 64-90 | +10.5 | L −15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 31 | vsMSST | W 84-79 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | @SC | W 78-59 | -3.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 11 | @TA&M | W 86-85 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 14 | vsTEX | L 68-85 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 18 | vsVAN | W 81-80 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | @ARK | L 86-94 | +9.5 | W +1.5 | 159.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 24 | vsTENN | W 73-69 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 28 | @MSST | W 88-64 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Mar 3 | @OU | L 64-80 | -1.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
+9.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
−2.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−4.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
−6.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−14.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
−18.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
+1.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−34.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
+9.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
+17.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
−5.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+11.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−6.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−3.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
−3.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−15.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
−1.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
+15.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+8.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
−19.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+4.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+1.5
24
vsTENN
TENNW 73-69
+7.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 88-64
+22.5
3
@OU
OUL 64-80
−17.5
covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
−1.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
+3.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−25.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
+0.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−10.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
+6.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
−4.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−14.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
−4.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
−9.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
+1.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+4.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−0.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−17.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
+23.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−13.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
+16.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
−10.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+10.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
+2.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+6.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+20.5
24
vsTENN
TENNW 73-69
−1.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 88-64
−2.5
3
@OU
OUL 64-80
−9.5
over 13under 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arkansas
22-8 overall · 12-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas105–85
- L@ Florida77–111
- Wvs Texas A&M99–84
- Wvs Missouri94–86
- L@ Alabama115–117
3 days since their last game.
Missouri
20-10 overall · 10-7 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Oklahoma64–80
- W@ Mississippi St88–64
- Wvs Tennessee73–69
- L@ Arkansas86–94
- Wvs Vanderbilt81–80
4 days since their last game.