Fertitta Center · at Houston · Conference game
Closing line
HOU -22.5✓ KSU covered by 8.5
HOU -22.5✓ KSU covered by 8.5Closing total144.5Under by 2.5
 KSU | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-14 | Record | 22-2 |
| 9-15 | ATS | 14-10 |
| 12-12 | O/U | 10-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: KSU 63–84 HOU · ✓ HOU (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 19 | 45 | 64 |
| HOU | 33 | 45 | 78 |
1st half: KSU 19, HOU 33 (HOU by 14). The model had HOU by 12.1 and a total of 68.8 (actual 52).
Team stats
| KSU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-57 35% | Field goals | 24-59 41% |
| 8-26 31% | 3-pointers | 7-21 33% |
| 16-25 64% | Free throws | 23-30 77% |
| 37 11 off | Rebounds | 42 12 off |
| 13 | Assists | 18 |
| 10 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 24 | Fouls | 21 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 20 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| KSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Johnson G | 40 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 3-11 | 3-5 |
| PJ Haggerty G | 40 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 7-20 | 2-7 |
| David Castillo G | 38 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-7 |
| Taj Manning F | 30 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Khamari McGriff F | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| CJ Jones G | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Dorin Buca C | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Marcus Johnson F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Abdi Bashir Jr., Andrej Kostic, Stephen Osei, Exavier Wilson, Elias Rapieque, Mobi Ikegwuruka
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Uzan G | 33 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 5-11 | 2-5 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 30 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2-13 | 0-0 |
| Emanuel Sharp G | 30 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 6-14 | 3-8 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 23 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isiah Harwell G | 19 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Kalifa Sakho F | 19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Chase McCarty F | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Mercy Miller G | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Cedric Lath C | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Kordel Jefferson, Jacob McFarland
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -22.5
ModelHOU -20.4
Model edgeKSU +2.1
W KSU covered
Total
Market144.5
Model147.0
Model edgeOver 2.5
L Under
Projected score
KSU 63.3 · HOU 83.7
KSU 64 · HOU 78
Win probability
HOU 96%
1st half
Spread
HOU -12.1
HOU -14.0
Total
68.8
52 points
Projected score
KSU 28.4 · HOU 40.4
KSU 19 · HOU 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -22.5
no move
CloseHOU -22.5
No change since the open
Total
Open147.5
▼ 3
Close144.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
KSU +1700 · HOU -4500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -22.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -20.5
model HOU -20.5
Opened 147.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 3 downmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 1-9 10% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| HOU | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
KSU 0–2 HOUHOU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · KSU 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | HOU 87 @ KSU 57 | KSU +10.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | KSU 52 @ HOU 74 | HOU -14.5 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kansas St
24 games played
Straight up
10-14
42% wins
Against the spread
9-15
38% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs UNCG | W 93-64 | -18.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs BELL | W 98-71 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 13 | vs CAL | W 99-96 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 17 | vs TLSA | W 84-83 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 20 | vs MSST | W 98-77 | +2.5 | W +23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs NEB | L 85-86 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | @ IU | L 69-86 | +10.5 | L −6.5 | 164.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs BGSU | L 66-82 | -12.5 | L −28.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs HALL | L 67-78 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 8 | vs MVSU | W 108-49 | -38.5 | W +20.5 | 160.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 13 | @ CREI | W 83-76 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs SDAK | W 106-76 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 176.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 28 | vs ULM | W 94-85 | -32.5 | L −23.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs BYU | L 73-83 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 174.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ ARIZ | L 76-101 | +17.5 | L −7.5 | 171.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 10 | @ ASU | L 84-87 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 169.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | vs UCF | L 73-82 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 170.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 17 | @ OKST | L 83-84 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | U 167 |
| Jan 20 | vs UTAH | W 81-78 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 168.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs KU | L 62-86 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 158.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 27 | @ WVU | L 54-59 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 113 |
| Feb 1 | vs ISU | L 61-95 | +12.5 | L −21.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 7 | @ TCU | L 82-84 | +9.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 11 | vs CIN | L 62-91 | +2.5 | L −26.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+10.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
−1.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
−3.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
−11.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+23.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+0.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−6.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−28.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−13.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
+20.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
+11.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+8.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
−23.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−2.5
7
@ARIZ
ARIZL 76-101
−7.5
10
@ASU
ASUL 84-87
−1.5
14
vsUCF
UCFL 73-82
−11.5
17
@OKST
OKSTL 83-84
+1.5
20
vsUTAH
UTAHW 81-78
−7.5
24
vsKU
KUL 62-86
−19.5
27
@WVU
WVUL 54-59
+2.5
1
vsISU
ISUL 61-95
−21.5
7
@TCU
TCUL 82-84
+7.5
11
vsCIN
CINL 62-91
−26.5
covered 9didn’t cover 15avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+8.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
+0.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
+30.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
+6.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+10.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+2.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−9.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−11.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−3.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
−3.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
−0.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+5.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
+9.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−18.5
7
@ARIZ
ARIZL 76-101
+5.5
10
@ASU
ASUL 84-87
+1.5
14
vsUCF
UCFL 73-82
−15.5
17
@OKST
OKSTL 83-84
−8.5
20
vsUTAH
UTAHW 81-78
−9.5
24
vsKU
KUL 62-86
−10.5
27
@WVU
WVUL 54-59
−33.5
1
vsISU
ISUL 61-95
−0.5
7
@TCU
TCUL 82-84
+10.5
11
vsCIN
CINL 62-91
+5.5
over 12under 12avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Houston
24 games played
Straight up
22-2
92% wins
Against the spread
14-10
58% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-14
42% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs ND | W 66-56 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs FSU | W 82-67 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs JKST | W 80-38 | -40.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 13 | vs NOLA | W 99-57 | -32.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARK | W 94-85 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs MTSU | W 69-60 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 3 | @CIN | W 67-60 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 6 | vs TTU | W 69-65 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 10 | @ BAY | W 77-55 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | vsWVU | W 77-48 | -13.5 | W +15.5 | 127.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 18 | vsASU | W 103-73 | -18.5 | W +11.5 | 142.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 24 | @TTU | L 86-90 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 28 | @TCU | W 79-70 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vsCIN | W 76-54 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 4 | vsUCF | W 79-55 | -15.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 7 | @BYU | W 77-66 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 10 | @UTAH | W 66-52 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 142.5 | U 118 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−1.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+2.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
+1.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+9.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+3.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−16.5
3
@CIN
CINW 67-60
+2.5
6
vsTTU
TTUW 69-65
−3.5
10
@BAY
BAYW 77-55
+19.5
13
vsWVU
WVUW 77-48
+15.5
18
vsASU
ASUW 103-73
+11.5
24
@TTU
TTUL 86-90
−5.5
28
@TCU
TCUW 79-70
+0.5
31
vsCIN
CINW 76-54
+8.5
4
vsUCF
UCFW 79-55
+8.5
7
@BYU
BYUW 77-66
+9.5
10
@UTAH
UTAHW 66-52
−2.5
covered 14didn’t cover 10avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−10.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+0.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
−19.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+17.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+32.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−9.5
3
@CIN
CINW 67-60
−8.5
6
vsTTU
TTUW 69-65
−8.5
10
@BAY
BAYW 77-55
−10.5
13
vsWVU
WVUW 77-48
−2.5
18
vsASU
ASUW 103-73
+33.5
24
@TTU
TTUL 86-90
+34.5
28
@TCU
TCUW 79-70
+9.5
31
vsCIN
CINW 76-54
−5.5
4
vsUCF
UCFW 79-55
−12.5
7
@BYU
BYUW 77-66
−8.5
10
@UTAH
UTAHW 66-52
−24.5
over 10under 14avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kansas St
10-14 overall · 1-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Cincinnati62–91
- L@ TCU82–84
- Lvs Iowa State61–95
- L@ West Virginia54–59
- Lvs Kansas62–86
3 days since their last game.
Houston
22-2 overall · 10-1 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Utah66–52
- W@ BYU77–66
- Wvs UCF79–55
- Wvs Cincinnati76–54
- W@ TCU79–70
4 days since their last game.