When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
284 games · 2024 · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 154 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
All 284 games
2024 · newest first · showing 50
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
KC -1.5 | 48.5 | 7244062 | Q4 | PHI Q1 Late over |
22–40 |
2024 · Postseason |
KC -2.5 | 49.5 | 10374361 | Q4 | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
29–32 |
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -6.5 | 47.5 | 17425778 | Q3 | PHI Q1 | 23–55 |
2024 · Postseason |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 14314052 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -7.5 | 43.5 | 20233150 | Q4 | LAR Q1 Late over |
22–28 |
2024 · Postseason |
DET -8.5 | 55.5 | 10525976 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 45–31 |
2024 · Postseason |
KC -9.5 | 41.5 | 9192537 | U | HOU Q1 | 14–23 |
2024 · Postseason |
MIN -2.5 | 47.5 | 10273636 | U | LAR Q1 | 9–27 |
2024 · Postseason |
TB -3.5 | 51.5 | 3203043 | U | WSH Q4 | 23–20 |
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -5.5 | 45.5 | 10101932 | U | PHI Q1 | 10–22 |
2024 · Postseason |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 10172838 | U | BUF Q3 | 7–31 |
2024 · Postseason |
BAL -9.5 | 44.5 | 7214242 | U | BAL Q2 | 14–28 |
2024 · Postseason |
LAC -2.5 | 41.5 | 6162644 | Q4 | HOU Q2 Late over |
12–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DET -2.5 | 56.5 | 7162640 | U | DET Q1 | 9–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DEN -11.5 | 40.5 | 14243138 | U | DEN Q1 | 0–38 |
2024 · Week 18 |
LAC -6.5 | 41.5 | 6273354 | Q4 | LAC Q2 Late over |
34–20 |
2024 · Week 18 |
SEA -7.5 | 38.5 | 10304055 | Q3 | LAR Q4 Lead lost |
30–25 |
2024 · Week 18 |
NYJ -2.5 | 39.5 | 6212452 | Q4 | NYJ Q2 | 20–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
ARI -4.5 | 42.5 | 6375071 | Q3 | ARI Q4 | 24–47 |
2024 · Week 18 |
ATL -7.5 | 48.5 | 641557682 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 18 |
WSH -7.5 | 43.5 | 391942 | U | DAL Q1 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2024 · Week 18 |
GB -10.5 | 41.5 | 10272746 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
24–22 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 7192237 | Q4 | HOU Q1 Late over |
23–14 |
2024 · Week 18 |
IND -3.5 | 45.5 | 1433334649 | Q4 | JAX Q4 Late over |
23–26 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BUF -3.5 | 36.5 | 7243339 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
16–23 |
2024 · Week 18 |
PHI -2.5 | 35.5 | 7101333 | U | PHI Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TB -14.5 | 44.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2024 · Week 18 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 10202336 | U | PIT Q4 Late cover flip |
19–17 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BAL -20.5 | 41.5 | 7172445 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
10–35 |
2024 · Week 17 |
DET -3.5 | 50.5 | 13345974 | Q3 | DET Q4 | 40–34 |
2024 · Week 17 |
WSH -3.5 | 46.5 | 1424314854 | Q4 | WSH OT Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 17 |
GB -0.5 | 48.5 | 3163752 | Q4 | MIN Q2 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Week 17 |
MIA -3.5 | 32.5 | 391623 | U | MIA Q3 | 20–3 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BUF -10.5 | 44.5 | 7123354 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 14–40 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LV -2.5 | 37.5 | 3232635 | U | LV Q1 | 25–10 |
2024 · Week 17 |
IND -7.5 | 40.5 | 10344878 | Q3 | NYG Q1 | 33–45 |
2024 · Week 17 |
PHI -7.5 | 37.5 | 14314148 | Q3 | PHI Q2 | 7–41 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TB -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415562 | Q3 | TB Q2 | 14–48 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TEN -1.5 | 38.5 | 3162333 | U | JAX Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAR -6.5 | 48.5 | 0101622 | U | ARI Q3 | 9–13 |
2024 · Week 17 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 310204854 | OT | CIN OT Late cover flip Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAC -5.5 | 41.5 | 7273747 | Q4 | LAC Q1 | 40–7 |
2024 · Week 17 |
SEA -4.5 | 42.5 | 3999 | U | CHI Q1 | 6–3 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 10193333 | U | BAL Q1 | 31–2 |
2024 · Week 17 |
KC -1.5 | 45.5 | 13202639 | U | KC Q1 | 29–10 |
2024 · Week 16 |
GB -14.5 | 43.5 | 7212434 | U | GB Q2 | 0–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
TB -4.5 | 47.5 | 10374350 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BUF -14.5 | 47.5 | 7213145 | U | NE Q1 | 21–24 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LV -2.5 | 41.5 | 7202733 | U | LV Q4 | 14–19 |
2024 · Week 16 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 3232946 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
17–29 |
KC
PHI
BUF
WSH
BAL
LAR
DET
HOU
MIN
TB
GB
DEN
PIT
LAC
LV
SEA
MIA
NYJ
SF
ARI
CAR
ATL
DAL
CHI
TEN
JAX
IND
NE
NYG
NO
CIN
CLEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 141
Q2 17% 49
Q3 11% 30
Q4 20% 57
OT 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 274 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 77% of 273 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 38 | 100% 38 |
| 1–3 | 12 | 92% 11 |
| 4–7 | 32 | 94% 30 |
| 8–10 | 34 | 62% 21 |
| 11–14 | 47 | 57% 27 |
| 15–17 | 39 | 38% 15 |
| 18–21 | 33 | 27% 9 |
| 22+ | 49 | 6% 3 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.