When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
284 games · 2024 · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 154 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
Stayed under: 130 games
2024 · newest first · showing 50
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
KC -9.5 | 41.5 | 9192537 | U | HOU Q1 | 14–23 |
2024 · Postseason |
MIN -2.5 | 47.5 | 10273636 | U | LAR Q1 | 9–27 |
2024 · Postseason |
TB -3.5 | 51.5 | 3203043 | U | WSH Q4 | 23–20 |
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -5.5 | 45.5 | 10101932 | U | PHI Q1 | 10–22 |
2024 · Postseason |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 10172838 | U | BUF Q3 | 7–31 |
2024 · Postseason |
BAL -9.5 | 44.5 | 7214242 | U | BAL Q2 | 14–28 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DET -2.5 | 56.5 | 7162640 | U | DET Q1 | 9–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DEN -11.5 | 40.5 | 14243138 | U | DEN Q1 | 0–38 |
2024 · Week 18 |
WSH -7.5 | 43.5 | 391942 | U | DAL Q1 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2024 · Week 18 |
PHI -2.5 | 35.5 | 7101333 | U | PHI Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 18 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 10202336 | U | PIT Q4 Late cover flip |
19–17 |
2024 · Week 17 |
MIA -3.5 | 32.5 | 391623 | U | MIA Q3 | 20–3 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LV -2.5 | 37.5 | 3232635 | U | LV Q1 | 25–10 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TEN -1.5 | 38.5 | 3162333 | U | JAX Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAR -6.5 | 48.5 | 0101622 | U | ARI Q3 | 9–13 |
2024 · Week 17 |
SEA -4.5 | 42.5 | 3999 | U | CHI Q1 | 6–3 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 10193333 | U | BAL Q1 | 31–2 |
2024 · Week 17 |
KC -1.5 | 45.5 | 13202639 | U | KC Q1 | 29–10 |
2024 · Week 16 |
GB -14.5 | 43.5 | 7212434 | U | GB Q2 | 0–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BUF -14.5 | 47.5 | 7213145 | U | NE Q1 | 21–24 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LV -2.5 | 41.5 | 7202733 | U | LV Q4 | 14–19 |
2024 · Week 16 |
ATL -9.5 | 43.5 | 0243841 | U | ATL Q2 | 7–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
CIN -10.5 | 46.5 | 7172330 | U | CIN Q2 | 6–24 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LAR -2.5 | 46.5 | 6151528 | U | LAR Q4 | 19–9 |
2024 · Week 15 |
ATL -5.5 | 43.5 | 7121524 | U | ATL Q1 | 15–9 |
2024 · Week 15 |
MIN -6.5 | 43.5 | 10132342 | U | MIN Q1 | 12–30 |
2024 · Week 15 |
GB -2.5 | 48.5 | 14232943 | U | GB Q1 | 30–13 |
2024 · Week 15 |
PHI -5.5 | 43.5 | 13303340 | U | PHI Q3 | 13–27 |
2024 · Week 15 |
KC -3.5 | 41.5 | 7142828 | U | KC Q1 | 21–7 |
2024 · Week 15 |
WSH -7.5 | 44.5 | 7142439 | U | NO Q4 | 20–19 |
2024 · Week 15 |
HOU -2.5 | 46.5 | 3193232 | U | HOU Q1 | 12–20 |
2024 · Week 15 |
SF -2.5 | 48.5 | 36918 | U | LAR Q4 | 12–6 |
2024 · Week 14 |
CIN -4.5 | 50.5 | 14273447 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
27–20 |
2024 · Week 14 |
KC -5.5 | 43.5 | 3132736 | U | LAC Q3 | 17–19 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TEN -3.5 | 40.5 | 33616 | U | JAX Q4 | 10–6 |
2024 · Week 14 |
NO -5.5 | 41.5 | 7101725 | U | NYG Q4 Late cover flip |
14–11 |
2024 · Week 14 |
PHI -13.5 | 44.5 | 3243038 | U | CAR Q1 | 16–22 |
2024 · Week 14 |
PIT -6.5 | 42.5 | 10203441 | U | PIT Q3 | 14–27 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TB -6.5 | 47.5 | 14242441 | U | TB Q4 | 13–28 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BAL -3.5 | 51.5 | 9262643 | U | PHI Q2 | 24–19 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LAR -2.5 | 48.5 | 361335 | U | LAR Q4 | 21–14 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LAC -0.5 | 47.5 | 10163030 | U | LAC Q2 | 17–13 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MIN -3.5 | 45.5 | 6153245 | U | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 13 |
HOU -3.5 | 44.5 | 092243 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 13 |
KC -13.5 | 41.5 | 3132636 | U | LV Q1 | 17–19 |
2024 · Week 13 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 14273847 | U | GB Q1 | 17–30 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DET -10 | 48.5 | 3163043 | U | CHI Q4 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 12 |
ARI -1.5 | 46.5 | 0101622 | U | SEA Q1 | 6–16 |
2024 · Week 12 |
DET -6.5 | 49.5 | 3202730 | U | DET Q2 | 24–6 |
2024 · Week 12 |
TB -6.5 | 40.5 | 7233037 | U | TB Q1 | 30–7 |
HOU
KC
MIN
LAR
WSH
TB
GB
PHI
DEN
BUF
PIT
BAL
DET
DAL
NYG
CIN
MIA
CLE
LV
NO
TEN
JAX
ARI
SEA
CHI
NE
ATL
NYJ
SF
LAC
CAR
INDWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 141
Q2 17% 49
Q3 11% 30
Q4 20% 57
OT 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 274 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 77% of 273 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 38 | 100% 38 |
| 1–3 | 12 | 92% 11 |
| 4–7 | 32 | 94% 30 |
| 8–10 | 34 | 62% 21 |
| 11–14 | 47 | 57% 27 |
| 15–17 | 39 | 38% 15 |
| 18–21 | 33 | 27% 9 |
| 22+ | 49 | 6% 3 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.