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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Totals 38.5–46.5 ✕

When did they go over?

599 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 38.5–46.5 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games599100%By halftime112%In Q310017%In Q419933%In OT81%Stayed under28147%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands6311%Over cashed7613%Leader lost the game478%
53% went over. Of the 318 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.

All 599 games

2023–2026 · Totals 38.5–46.5 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 8
 NMSU -3 46.5 7244754 Q3 NMSU Q2 30–24
2026 · Week 8
 FIU -10.5 46.5 15213949 Q4 MTSU Q1 26–23
2026 · Week 7
 FRES -6.5 46.5 10263349 Q4 SDSU Q1
Late over
 23–26
2026 · Week 7
 UNM -14.5 46.5 3101731 U HAW Q1 21–10
2026 · Week 7
 OHIO -17.5 46.5 7274155 Q4 OHIO Q2 48–7
2026 · Week 7
 SJSU -6.5 46.5 772435 U SJSU Q1 24–11
2026 · Week 7
 UCLA -1.5 42.5 3101724 U UCLA Q1 7–17
2026 · Week 7
 OU -7 44.5 10172034 U UK Q1 21–13
2026 · Week 7
 USF -20.5 46.5 2121931 U USF Q4 2–29
2026 · Week 7
 NDSU -14.5 42.5 0304148 Q4 NEV Q1 17–31
2026 · Week 7
 DUKE -3 46.5 10242744 U UNC Q1 24–20
2026 · Week 7
 MICH -6 43.5 331739 U PSU Q4 18–21
2026 · Week 7
 WYO -7 42.5 10264464 Q3 WYO Q1 23–41
2026 · Week 7
 WMU -7.5 42.5 7142135 U CMU Q4
Late cover flip
 21–14
2026 · Week 7
 BUFF -6.5 43.5 1023303643 U BUFF OT
Late cover flip
 18–25
2026 · Week 7
 PITT -6.5 42.5 19263948 Q4 BC Q1 21–27
2026 · Week 7
 BGSU -6 46.5 320274863 Q4 BALL Q1
Late over
 32–31
2026 · Week 7
 GASO -3 44.5 14233038 U GASO Q2 23–15
2026 · Week 7
 JXST -3 44.5 21344851 Q3 Push
Late cover flip
 24–27
2026 · Week 6
 TEX -7.5 40.5 7242751 Q4 OU Q3 24–27
2026 · Week 6
 DUKE -4.5 45.5 7243953 Q4 GT Q1
Late over
 25–28
2026 · Week 6
 OHIO -2.5 45.5 14313845 U OHIO Q1 14–31
2026 · Week 6
 WMU -13.5 43.5 7283145 Q4 WMU Q2
Late over
 7–38
2026 · Week 6
 M-OH -6 44.5 21242739 U MASS Q4
Late cover flip
 20–19
2026 · Week 6
 ECU -10 46.5 7102340 U ECU Q4 12–28
2026 · Week 6
 APP -8.5 45.5 00513 U ODU Q1 10–3
2026 · Week 6
 BGSU -9.5 43.5 3202748 Q4 BGSU Q2 10–38
2026 · Week 6
 BYU -11.5 46.5 7172434 U BYU Q3
Late cover flip
 10–24
2026 · Week 6
 WASH -3 41.5 13305265 Q3 IOWA Q1 41–24
2026 · Week 6
 USU -4 44.5 6192633 U WSU Q1 16–17
2026 · Week 6
 SJSU -4.5 42.5 313192629 U WYO Q4 16–13
2026 · Week 6
 FIU -7 46.5 7131925 U FIU Q3 3–22
2026 · Week 5
 WSU -2.5 44.5 3121932 U FRES Q1 26–6
2026 · Week 5
 LT -1.5 46.5 14214360 Q4 LT Q2 29–31
2026 · Week 5
 OSU -14.5 46.5 16233045 U OSU Q3 31–14
2026 · Week 5
 NDSU -17.5 44.5 7172028 U NDSU Q3 0–28
2026 · Week 5
 M-OH -10.5 41.5 0161944 Q4 BGSU Q1
Late over
 24–20
2026 · Week 5
 WMU -13.5 46.5 14242437 U BUFF Q1 20–17
2026 · Week 5
 WIS -8.5 43.5 14202734 U WIS Q1 3–31
2026 · Week 5
 ND -21 46.5 21354763 Q3 UNC Q1 37–26
2026 · Week 5
 MICH -6.5 41.5 7212434 U MINN Q3 14–20
2026 · Week 5
 AFA -2.5 45.5 0172323 U AFA Q2 9–14
2026 · Week 5
 PSU -3 46.5 10313847 Q4 NU Q1
Late over
 13–34
2026 · Week 4
 WASH -12.5 44.5 14313451 Q4 MINN Q1
Late over
 27–24
2026 · Week 4
 FRES -12.5 43.5 7314162 Q4 FRES Q4 24–38
2026 · Week 4
 JMU -7 44.5 24475366 Q2 JMU Q1 46–20
2026 · Week 4
 PSU -9.5 43.5 3243044 Q4 WIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 24–20
2026 · Week 4
 UGA -11.5 43.5 7283754 Q4 UGA Q2 13–41
2026 · Week 4
 UTAH -7.5 46.5 14273448 Q4 UTAH Q1
Late over
 31–17
2026 · Week 4
 MICH -4.5 39.5 14172039 U IOWA Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 20–19
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 599

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 48% 289
Q2 18% 106
Q3 15% 87
Q4 17% 102
OT 1% 8
Push 1% 7
The team leading at halftime won 81% and covered 74% of 551 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 77% of 562 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over111100% 111
1–33497% 33
4–77189% 63
8–105353% 28
11–147158% 41
15–176433% 21
18–217115% 11
22+1248% 10
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.