1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

56 games · 2025 · Week 7 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games56100%By halftime12%In Q3713%In Q41832%In OT00%Stayed under3054%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands713%Over cashed916%Leader lost the game713%
46% went over. Of the 26 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.

All 56 games

2025 · Week 7 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2025 · Week 7
 USU -1.5 57.5 13445370 Q4 HAW Q1 26–44
2025 · Week 7
 SDSU -6.5 42.5 14354454 Q3 SDSU Q1 44–10
2025 · Week 7
 UTAH -8.5 42.5 10244552 Q3 UTAH Q2 10–42
2025 · Week 7
 BOIS -15.5 57.5 10313766 Q4 BOIS Q4 25–41
2025 · Week 7
 BYU -2.5 46.5 2131314860 Q4 BYU OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 33–27
2025 · Week 7
 TXST -7.5 53.5 3548658289 Q3 TROY Q4
Lead lost
 48–41
2025 · Week 7
 LSU -8.5 44.5 10172730 U LSU Q4
Late cover flip
 10–20
2025 · Week 7
 TTU -13.5 58.5 18384559 Q4 TTU Q4
Late over
 17–42
2025 · Week 7
 UGA -4.5 45.5 7132330 U UGA Q4
Late cover flip
 20–10
2025 · Week 7
 USC -2.5 57.5 7212844 U USC Q1 13–31
2025 · Week 7
 MINN -7.5 49.5 7303347 U PUR Q1 20–27
2025 · Week 7
 CLEM -13.5 54.5 13444451 U CLEM Q2 41–10
2025 · Week 7
 UTSA -9.5 48.5 24487174 Q3 UTSA Q1 13–61
2025 · Week 7
 TA&M -6.5 48.5 28354151 Q4 TA&M Q2
Late over
 17–34
2025 · Week 7
 IOWA -4.5 37.5 17233037 U IOWA Q1 37–0
2025 · Week 7
 SJSU -1.5 49.5 21424263 Q4 WYO Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 28–35
2025 · Week 7
 ULM -2.5 45.5 6163131 U CCU Q1 8–23
2025 · Week 7
 FAU -5.5 65.5 21498086 Q3 FAU Q1 33–53
2025 · Week 7
 TENN -10.5 68.5 17344465 U ARK Q1 31–34
2025 · Week 7
 NAVY -10.5 52.5 14244563 Q4 TEM Q1
Late over
 32–31
2025 · Week 7
 ORE -7.5 51.5 17233350 U IU Q1 30–20
2025 · Week 7
 TEX -2.5 43.5 391929 U TEX Q3 6–23
2025 · Week 7
 GT -14.5 55.5 15284255 U GT Q4 20–35
2025 · Week 7
 ND -24.5 59.5 7173143 U ND Q4 7–36
2025 · Week 7
 ISU -2.5 52.5 7173841 U COLO Q3 17–24
2025 · Week 7
 PSU -20.5 46.5 3272743 U NU Q1
Lead lost
 22–21
2025 · Week 7
 NEB -6.5 47.5 7415565 Q3 MD Q3
Lead lost
 34–31
2025 · Week 7
 WAKE -1.5 47.5 15253253 Q4 WAKE Q1
Late over
 39–14
2025 · Week 7
 TCU -2.5 54.5 0214269 Q4 KSU Q1 28–41
2025 · Week 7
 UNLV -7.5 66.5 14345799 Q4 AFA Q1
Lead lost
 48–51
2025 · Week 7
 APP -2.5 55.5 7175261 Q4 APP Q1 41–20
2025 · Week 7
 ODU -14.5 57.5 14345172 Q4 MRSH Q1 24–48
2025 · Week 7
 WMU -9.5 42.5 7212842 U WMU Q2 0–42
2025 · Week 7
 KENT -1.5 49.5 14274848 U KENT Q1 6–42
2025 · Week 7
 NIU -1.5 48.5 391626 U EMU Q4 10–16
2025 · Week 7
 MISS -32.5 58.5 7173145 U WSU Q1 21–24
2025 · Week 7
 OSU -15.5 51.5 10233750 U OSU Q2 34–16
2025 · Week 7
 ALA -3.5 50.5 14273751 Q4 MIZ Q3
Late over
 27–24
2025 · Week 7
 FSU -11.5 57.5 14354565 Q4 PITT Q1
Late over
 34–31
2025 · Week 7
 MSU -6.5 51.5 17314551 U UCLA Q1 38–13
2025 · Week 7
 SMU -19.5 55.5 7243444 U SMU Q4 10–34
2025 · Week 7
 CIN -10.5 55.5 7202031 U UCF Q4
Late cover flip
 11–20
2025 · Week 7
 HOU -14.5 47.5 17344656 Q4 HOU Q3 39–17
2025 · Week 7
 JMU -18.5 45.5 0212838 U UL Q1 14–24
2025 · Week 7
 ARMY -17.5 44.5 7172431 U CLT Q4
Late cover flip
 7–24
2025 · Week 7
 M-OH -11.5 47.5 031727 U M-OH Q3 20–7
2025 · Week 7
 TOL -10.5 45.5 14283551 Q4 BGSU Q3 23–28
2025 · Week 7
 WASH -9.5 62.5 10235057 U WASH Q3 19–38
2025 · Week 7
 FRES -5.5 48.5 14495670 Q2 CSU Q1 21–49
2025 · Week 7
 UNT -2.5 68.5 21427799 Q3 USF Q2 63–36
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 56

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 45% 25
Q2 14% 8
Q3 14% 8
Q4 25% 14
OT 2% 1
The team leading at halftime won 74% and covered 69% of 54 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 78% and covered 73% of 55 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over8100% 8
1–3250% 1
4–7580% 4
8–10580% 4
11–14863% 5
15–17838% 3
18–21813% 1
22+120% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.