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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

54 games · 2023 · Week 9 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games54100%By halftime12%In Q3611%In Q42444%In OT12%Stayed under2241%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands47%Over cashed815%Leader lost the game24%
60% went over. Of the 32 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.

All 54 games

2023 · Week 9 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 9
 SJSU -10.5 57 7212835 U SJSU Q2 35–0
2023 · Week 9
 ORST -3 57.5 10202351 U ARIZ Q2 24–27
2023 · Week 9
 UNM PK 50 3243758 Q4 NEV Q1 24–34
2023 · Week 9
 FRES -10.5 56 14244855 U UNLV Q4 24–31
2023 · Week 9
 UNC -12 65.5 14525988 Q4 GT Q2
Lead lost
 42–46
2023 · Week 9
 JMU -19.5 48 10245457 Q3 ODU Q1 27–30
2023 · Week 9
 WSU -4.5 49 14455565 Q3 ASU Q1 27–38
2023 · Week 9
 OKST -7 53 14173858 Q4 OKST Q3
Late over
 13–45
2023 · Week 9
 OSU -14.5 47 3132734 U WIS Q1 24–10
2023 · Week 9
 MISS -24 62 13263340 U MISS Q4 7–33
2023 · Week 9
 UCLA -14 60 6132344 U COLO Q1
Late cover flip
 16–28
2023 · Week 9
 WASH -27.5 62 7345475 Q4 STAN Q1 42–33
2023 · Week 9
 AFA -14.5 47 7263643 U AFA Q4 30–13
2023 · Week 9
 TENN -4 50.5 10405060 Q4 TENN Q4 33–27
2023 · Week 9
 TROY -6.5 53 7172744 U TROY Q4 31–13
2023 · Week 9
 MRSH -3.5 47 10333340 U CCU Q1 6–34
2023 · Week 9
 BOIS -4.5 48.5 15223639 U BOIS Q2 7–32
2023 · Week 9
 ULM -1 55.5 10193358 Q4 ARST Q1
Late over
 34–24
2023 · Week 9
 USA -11.5 55 0174753 U UL Q1 33–20
2023 · Week 9
 TULN -10 55 17344858 Q4 RICE Q3 30–28
2023 · Week 9
 USC -10 67.5 31456599 Q4 CAL Q1 50–49
2023 · Week 9
 UGA -14 50 17334363 Q4 UGA Q2 43–20
2023 · Week 9
 TEX -20.5 48.5 14242741 U TEX Q4 6–35
2023 · Week 9
 ORE -6.5 47 17274141 U ORE Q1 35–6
2023 · Week 9
 ND -21 45.5 7174465 Q4 ND Q3 7–58
2023 · Week 9
 LOU -4.5 47 14172323 U LOU Q1 0–23
2023 · Week 9
 AUB -6.5 40 17273340 P AUB Q1 13–27
2023 · Week 9
 MINN -6.5 41.5 6161639 U MINN Q4
Late cover flip
 12–27
2023 · Week 9
 PUR -1.5 39.5 0142145 Q4 NEB Q1
Late over
 14–31
2023 · Week 9
 MIA -18.5 48 713374655 OT UVA Q1
Late over
 26–29
2023 · Week 9
 ISU -3 47 7233948 Q4 ISU Q1 30–18
2023 · Week 9
 UTSA -17.5 48 31515468 Q2 ECU Q1
Late cover flip
 27–41
2023 · Week 9
 APP -16 55.5 14385986 Q3 USM Q1 38–48
2023 · Week 9
 OHIO -7.5 39 9223246 Q4 M-OH Q2 30–16
2023 · Week 9
 MEM -6.5 69.5 21415287 Q4 UNT Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 45–42
2023 · Week 9
 CLEM -10 44.5 7173141 U NCSU Q1 17–24
2023 · Week 9
 WMU -3 50 14283866 Q4 WMU Q1 45–21
2023 · Week 9
 FSU -21 53.5 10415057 Q4 FSU Q4 41–16
2023 · Week 9
 OU -7.5 66.5 7385371 Q4 KU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 33–38
2023 · Week 9
 PSU -31 45 14313857 Q4 IU Q1
Late over
 24–33
2023 · Week 9
 ARMY -10 49.5 13202835 U MASS Q1 21–14
2023 · Week 9
 BC -14.5 49 14212835 U CONN Q1 14–21
2023 · Week 9
 MD -14 48.5 28414760 Q4 NU Q1 27–33
2023 · Week 9
 TA&M -17 51.5 7283447 U SC Q1 17–30
2023 · Week 9
 KSU -18 60.5 7283541 U KSU Q2 0–41
2023 · Week 9
 UCF -6.5 59 17314569 Q4 WVU Q1 41–28
2023 · Week 9
 SMU -20.5 55 31556979 Q3 SMU Q1 10–69
2023 · Week 9
 FAU -3.5 45.5 10274754 Q3 FAU Q1 38–16
2023 · Week 9
 VT -2.5 47.5 13334548 Q4 VT Q1 10–38
2023 · Week 9
 GAST PK 63 17345571 Q4 GASO Q1 27–44
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 54

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 59% 32
Q2 13% 7
Q3 9% 5
Q4 19% 10
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 71% of 52 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 74% of 53 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over7100% 7
1–35100% 5
4–7475% 3
8–101164% 7
11–14757% 4
15–17367% 2
18–21450% 2
22+1315% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.