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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

54 games · 2023 · Week 8 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games54100%By halftime00%In Q324%In Q41630%In OT24%Stayed under3463%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands611%Over cashed917%Leader lost the game611%
38% went over. Of the 20 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 10% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.

All 54 games

2023 · Week 8 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 8
 WASH -28 59.5 0101022 U ASU Q1 7–15
2023 · Week 8
 UCLA -17 52 14214249 U UCLA Q2 42–7
2023 · Week 8
 SDSU -11 48.5 3666 U NEV Q1 6–0
2023 · Week 8
 USC -7 51.5 28284566 Q4 UTAH Q1 34–32
2023 · Week 8
 CLEM -6 45 714243448 OT MIA Q4
Late over Lead lost
 20–28
2023 · Week 8
 UL -3 62 0273737 U GAST Q1 20–17
2023 · Week 8
 MICH -25.5 46.5 14284249 Q4 MICH Q2
Late over
 49–0
2023 · Week 8
 FSU -14 48.5 17373758 Q4 FSU Q4
Late cover flip
 20–38
2023 · Week 8
 LSU -33 60 14384862 Q4 LSU Q2
Late over
 0–62
2023 · Week 8
 MISS -6.5 55.5 21283549 U MISS Q3 28–21
2023 · Week 8
 TTU -3 49 14313441 U BYU Q1 14–27
2023 · Week 8
 KSU -5.5 60 24303744 U KSU Q1 3–41
2023 · Week 8
 APP -6 56 7314149 U ODU Q2
Lead lost
 21–28
2023 · Week 8
 CCU -8.5 59 3202744 U CCU Q4 27–17
2023 · Week 8
 UNLV -6.5 60 0162948 U CSU Q1 23–25
2023 · Week 8
 SJSU -4 65 14284263 U SJSU Q3 21–42
2023 · Week 8
 UNC -24 58 21314858 P UVA Q1 31–27
2023 · Week 8
 UTSA -2.5 58.5 17303946 U UTSA Q2 36–10
2023 · Week 8
 HAW -1.5 60 21424963 Q4 UNM Q1
Late over
 21–42
2023 · Week 8
 TEX -23.5 60.5 14354555 U HOU Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 8
 TOL -2 46.5 7243838 U TOL Q1 21–17
2023 · Week 8
 ORE -19.5 60.5 6304762 Q4 WSU Q1
Late cover flip Late over
 24–38
2023 · Week 8
 ALA -8.5 47.5 13274454 Q4 ALA Q4 20–34
2023 · Week 8
 MIZ -7.5 57.5 14273346 U MIZ Q1 12–34
2023 · Week 8
 TULN -20 63.5 7214963 U UNT Q3 28–35
2023 · Week 8
 IOWA -3.5 30.5 6131922 U MINN Q3 12–10
2023 · Week 8
 WIS -3 41 7212846 Q4 WIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 25–21
2023 · Week 8
 NEB -10.5 40 6161626 U NU Q1 9–17
2023 · Week 8
 CONN -1 57 7242445 U USF Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 24–21
2023 · Week 8
 PITT -3 45 7141438 U WAKE Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–21
2023 · Week 8
 WVU -3 48 10304482 Q4 OKST Q4 48–34
2023 · Week 8
 CMU -5 42 10132741 U BALL Q1 17–24
2023 · Week 8
 NIU -11.5 43.5 14202333 U EMU Q1 13–20
2023 · Week 8
 BUFF -6.5 44 13202330 U BUFF Q2 24–6
2023 · Week 8
 ECU -6 39.5 331017 U CLT Q1 10–7
2023 · Week 8
 GASO -16.5 60.5 14454866 Q4 ULM Q3
Late over
 28–38
2023 · Week 8
 BGSU -7 37 10204155 Q3 BGSU Q3 14–41
2023 · Week 8
 OSU -4 46.5 6161632 U OSU Q4 12–20
2023 · Week 8
 OU -17 67.5 7344060 U UCF Q1 29–31
2023 · Week 8
 AFA -11 34 071023 U Push
Late cover flip
 17–6
2023 · Week 8
 ARK -7 46.5 3101010 U MSST Q1 7–3
2023 · Week 8
 RUTG -6 39.5 14313845 Q4 RUTG Q3 31–14
2023 · Week 8
 GT -6 57 17274061 Q4 BC Q4 38–23
2023 · Week 8
 CIN -2.5 51.5 3344361 Q4 BAY Q1 32–29
2023 · Week 8
 MEM -7.5 61.5 21425966 Q4 MEM Q3
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Week 8
 OHIO -16.5 52 362337 U WMU Q1 17–20
2023 · Week 8
 SMU -24 53 14244155 Q4 SMU Q3 55–0
2023 · Week 8
 TLSA -3 56.5 14314552 U RICE Q1 42–10
2023 · Week 8
 JMU -5 49 031529 U JMU Q3 20–9
2023 · Week 8
 NMSU -3 48.5 7142835 U NMSU Q3 28–7
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 54

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 24
Q2 17% 9
Q3 20% 11
Q4 17% 9
OT 0% 0
Push 2% 1
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 65% of 43 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 76% and covered 67% of 51 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–33100% 3
4–74100% 4
8–10250% 1
11–141164% 7
15–17617% 1
18–21520% 1
22+215% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.