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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

All 831 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -5.5 56 17273347 U MICH Q1 13–34
2023 · Postseason
 TEX -3.5 61.5 14425268 Q4 WASH Q1 31–37
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -2 46 1423234047 OT MICH OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–27
2023 · Postseason
 ORE -18.5 71 9374451 U ORE Q2 6–45
2023 · Postseason
 TENN -5 37 0142135 U TENN Q2 0–35
2023 · Postseason
 LSU -9.5 60 14355966 Q4 WIS Q1
Late over Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Postseason
 WYO -5.5 44 3162131 U TOL Q1
Lead lost
 15–16
2023 · Postseason
 UGA -23.5 47 7455966 Q3 UGA Q2 63–3
2023 · Postseason
 AUB -4.5 48 21313844 U MD Q1 13–31
2023 · Postseason
 PSU -5.5 53 13374863 Q4 MISS Q1 38–25
2023 · Postseason
 OSU -4 50.5 33317 U MIZ Q1 14–3
2023 · Postseason
 MEM -10 58 19355662 Q4 Push 26–36
2023 · Postseason
 ND -5.5 40.5 7142448 Q4 ND Q1 8–40
2023 · Postseason
 CLEM -3.5 44 10243173 Q4 UK Q1
Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 ARIZ -2.5 60 10274562 Q4 ARIZ Q4
Late over
 38–24
2023 · Postseason
 KSU -3 49 7314047 U KSU Q4
Late cover flip
 19–28
2023 · Postseason
 RUTG -2.5 41.5 7243855 Q4 RUTG Q1 31–24
2023 · Postseason
 SMU -13.5 49.5 3242437 U BC Q1 14–23
2023 · Postseason
 OKST -4 56 13305154 U OKST Q1 23–31
2023 · Postseason
 LOU -5 58 14425670 Q4 USC Q1 28–42
2023 · Postseason
 WVU -4.5 62 7273040 U WVU Q1 10–30
2023 · Postseason
 VT -13 43.5 17274461 Q3 VT Q4 41–20
2023 · Postseason
 KU -7.5 65 14385285 Q4 KU Q4 49–36
2023 · Postseason
 TXST -3.5 59.5 21455966 Q4 TXST Q3
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Postseason
 MINN -2.5 44.5 13193354 Q4 MINN Q3 24–30
2023 · Postseason
 SJSU -7.5 48 771438 U CCU Q1 24–14
2023 · Postseason
 UTAH -7 44 07721 U NU Q1 7–14
2023 · Postseason
 EMU -17.5 42.5 17416269 Q3 USA Q1 10–59
2023 · Postseason
 AFA -2.5 44 14284252 Q4 AFA Q2 21–31
2023 · Postseason
 USU -2.5 58.5 35455267 Q4 GAST Q1 45–22
2023 · Postseason
 TROY -6.5 44.5 8141727 U DUKE Q1 10–17
2023 · Postseason
 ARST -2.5 53.5 20343440 U NIU Q1 19–21
2023 · Postseason
 UCF -6 66 14343747 U GT Q2 30–17
2023 · Postseason
 SYR -3 55.5 14313845 U USF Q1 45–0
2023 · Postseason
 UTSA -7 47 7384552 Q4 UTSA Q3 35–17
2023 · Postseason
 ODU -4.5 49.5 2135497073 Q4 WKU Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 TTU -3.5 54.5 21384548 U TTU Q2 14–34
2023 · Postseason
 UCLA -6.5 46 13234457 Q4 UCLA Q3 35–22
2023 · Postseason
 NMSU -3 52 10203047 U FRES Q1 10–37
2023 · Postseason
 APP -6.5 41 692222 U M-OH Q1 9–13
2023 · Postseason
 JXST -3 59 1428456265 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Postseason
 GASO -2 48.5 3204862 Q4 OHIO Q1 21–41
2023 · Week 14
 MICH -21.5 36 10102026 U MICH Q4 26–0
2023 · Week 14
 LOU PK 46 031322 U FSU Q2 6–16
2023 · Week 14
 UGA -5.5 53.5 10243051 U ALA Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 14
 TULN -2.5 47.5 14213140 U SMU Q1 26–14
2023 · Week 14
 TROY -5.5 52 0213872 Q4 TROY Q4 23–49
2023 · Week 14
 BOIS -2 61.5 21486164 Q4 BOIS Q1
Late over
 44–20
2023 · Week 14
 TEX -14.5 57.5 28495670 Q4 TEX Q2 21–49
2023 · Week 14
 TOL -6 43 10182737 U M-OH Q1 23–14
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 831

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.