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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Stayed under: 403 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -5.5 56 17273347 U MICH Q1 13–34
2023 · Postseason
 ORE -18.5 71 9374451 U ORE Q2 6–45
2023 · Postseason
 TENN -5 37 0142135 U TENN Q2 0–35
2023 · Postseason
 WYO -5.5 44 3162131 U TOL Q1
Lead lost
 15–16
2023 · Postseason
 AUB -4.5 48 21313844 U MD Q1 13–31
2023 · Postseason
 OSU -4 50.5 33317 U MIZ Q1 14–3
2023 · Postseason
 KSU -3 49 7314047 U KSU Q4
Late cover flip
 19–28
2023 · Postseason
 SMU -13.5 49.5 3242437 U BC Q1 14–23
2023 · Postseason
 OKST -4 56 13305154 U OKST Q1 23–31
2023 · Postseason
 WVU -4.5 62 7273040 U WVU Q1 10–30
2023 · Postseason
 SJSU -7.5 48 771438 U CCU Q1 24–14
2023 · Postseason
 UTAH -7 44 07721 U NU Q1 7–14
2023 · Postseason
 TROY -6.5 44.5 8141727 U DUKE Q1 10–17
2023 · Postseason
 ARST -2.5 53.5 20343440 U NIU Q1 19–21
2023 · Postseason
 UCF -6 66 14343747 U GT Q2 30–17
2023 · Postseason
 SYR -3 55.5 14313845 U USF Q1 45–0
2023 · Postseason
 TTU -3.5 54.5 21384548 U TTU Q2 14–34
2023 · Postseason
 NMSU -3 52 10203047 U FRES Q1 10–37
2023 · Postseason
 APP -6.5 41 692222 U M-OH Q1 9–13
2023 · Week 14
 MICH -21.5 36 10102026 U MICH Q4 26–0
2023 · Week 14
 LOU PK 46 031322 U FSU Q2 6–16
2023 · Week 14
 UGA -5.5 53.5 10243051 U ALA Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 14
 TULN -2.5 47.5 14213140 U SMU Q1 26–14
2023 · Week 14
 TOL -6 43 10182737 U M-OH Q1 23–14
2023 · Week 14
 ORE -10 65 10304465 P WASH Q1 31–34
2023 · Week 13
 CSU -5.5 53.5 14243151 U HAW Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 13
 UCLA -9.5 50.5 6272740 U CAL Q1 33–7
2023 · Week 13
 UGA -24.5 59.5 17344454 U GT Q1 31–23
2023 · Week 13
 CLEM -7.5 47.5 17202323 U CLEM Q3 16–7
2023 · Week 13
 FSU -6.5 49 0192939 U FSU Q4
Late cover flip
 24–15
2023 · Week 13
 WASH -15.5 65 14283545 U WSU Q1 21–24
2023 · Week 13
 JXST -2.5 48 14202037 U NMSU Q1 17–20
2023 · Week 13
 WIS -3 46 7284242 U WIS Q3 28–14
2023 · Week 13
 UTAH -21.5 43 7233040 U COLO Q1 17–23
2023 · Week 13
 ODU -1.5 51.5 7212849 U GAST Q1
Lead lost
 24–25
2023 · Week 13
 RICE -3 47.5 14173845 U Push 21–24
2023 · Week 13
 MTSU -3.5 50.5 13192943 U SHSU Q2 20–23
2023 · Week 13
 MASS -2.5 51 6193149 U CONN Q1 31–18
2023 · Week 13
 UCF -16 61 16233740 U HOU Q4 13–27
2023 · Week 13
 M-OH -3.5 34.5 13262932 U BALL Q4
Late cover flip
 17–15
2023 · Week 13
 ORE -14 61.5 7283138 U ORE Q3 7–31
2023 · Week 13
 PSU -22.5 43 3132842 U PSU Q3 42–0
2023 · Week 13
 TULN -3.5 53.5 14333345 U TULN Q2 16–29
2023 · Week 13
 TOL -10 55 0102049 U TOL Q3 32–17
2023 · Week 13
 OHIO -16 41.5 3173239 U AKR Q1 25–14
2023 · Week 13
 MISS -10 54.5 031724 U Push 17–7
2023 · Week 13
 BUFF -5.5 37.5 7243235 U EMU Q1 24–11
2023 · Week 13
 BGSU -2.5 51.5 10343744 U BGSU Q1 34–10
2023 · Week 12
 FRES -22 58 10263242 U UNM Q1 25–17
2023 · Week 12
 SJSU -16 48 7202737 U SDSU Q1 13–24
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 403

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.