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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

919 games · 2025 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games919100%By halftime142%In Q313314%In Q429132%In OT111%Stayed under47051%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands10511%Over cashed12614%Leader lost the game859%
49% went over. Of the 449 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.

Went over in Q3: 133 games

2025 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2025 · Postseason
 IU -3 50.5 21425778 Q3 IU Q1 22–56
2025 · Postseason
 UTAH -13.5 51.5 21385266 Q3 UTAH Q3 22–44
2025 · Postseason
 HOU -1.5 43.5 21354973 Q3 HOU Q2 35–38
2025 · Postseason
 UNT -7.5 55.5 27486296 Q3 SDSU Q4
Late cover flip
 49–47
2025 · Postseason
 ORE -20.5 47.5 16406885 Q3 JMU Q4
Late cover flip
 34–51
2025 · Postseason
 OU -2.5 42.5 10344458 Q3 ALA Q2 34–24
2025 · Week 14
 MSU -4 49.5 7315966 Q3 MSU Q4
Late cover flip
 28–38
2025 · Week 14
 PSU -14 55.5 28456176 Q3 RUTG Q1 40–36
2025 · Week 14
 DUKE -2.5 53.5 17386081 Q3 DUKE Q1 32–49
2025 · Week 14
 WKU -1.5 56.5 21526271 Q3 JXST Q3 34–37
2025 · Week 14
 DEL -4.5 55.5 14517292 Q3 DEL Q2 31–61
2025 · Week 14
 FIU -10.5 50.5 29385272 Q3 FIU Q1 56–16
2025 · Week 14
 BGSU -14 44.5 14424959 Q3 BGSU Q3 45–14
2025 · Week 13
 UNT -18.5 56.5 21426380 Q3 UNT Q3 56–24
2025 · Week 13
 UTAH -18.5 52.5 14527398 Q3 KSU Q1
Lead lost
 47–51
2025 · Week 13
 MICH -13.5 46.5 14314865 Q3 MICH Q3 45–20
2025 · Week 13
 ND -36.5 50.5 35495677 Q3 ND Q2 7–70
2025 · Week 13
 TEX -10.5 57.5 20446889 Q3 TEX Q3 37–52
2025 · Week 13
 CONN -5.5 64.5 27446593 Q3 FAU Q3 48–45
2025 · Week 13
 UTEP -4.5 45.5 21424865 Q3 NMSU Q2 34–31
2025 · Week 13
 NU -4.5 41.5 10345673 Q3 MINN Q2 35–38
2025 · Week 13
 WAKE -17.5 48.5 15425666 Q3 WAKE Q2 14–52
2025 · Week 13
 ARST -2.5 54.5 17515864 Q3 UL Q3 34–30
2025 · Week 13
 M-OH -2.5 38.5 3275157 Q3 M-OH Q2 37–20
2025 · Week 12
 MIZ -7.5 50.5 24315976 Q3 MIZ Q2 27–49
2025 · Week 12
 OSU -32.5 46.5 10274858 Q3 OSU Q3
Late cover flip
 10–48
2025 · Week 12
 TTU -24.5 48.5 14405757 Q3 TTU Q2 9–48
2025 · Week 12
 TA&M -16.5 49.5 20335461 Q3 SC Q1 30–31
2025 · Week 12
 ORE -26.5 45.5 14344855 Q3 ORE Q4 13–42
2025 · Week 12
 NIU -8.5 43.5 10314548 Q3 NIU Q1 45–3
2025 · Week 11
 USU -9.5 52.5 24415565 Q3 USU Q1 14–51
2025 · Week 11
 VAN -5.5 46.5 730547683 Q3 VAN OT
Late cover flip
 38–45
2025 · Week 11
 MTSU -1.5 50.5 7385886 Q3 FIU Q2 56–30
2025 · Week 11
 ECU -29.5 56.5 21496770 Q3 CLT Q1 22–48
2025 · Week 11
 MEM -3.5 53.5 21525570 Q3 TULN Q1 38–32
2025 · Week 11
 UCF -1.5 47.5 3415157 Q3 HOU Q4 30–27
2025 · Week 11
 USF -13.5 66.5 17556878 Q3 USF Q2 23–55
2025 · Week 10
 SJSU -2.5 55.5 14456683 Q3 SJSU Q2 38–45
2025 · Week 10
 GT -4.5 58.5 21416884 Q3 NCSU Q1 36–48
2025 · Week 10
 ARIZ -3.5 51.5 17456669 Q3 ARIZ Q1 52–17
2025 · Week 10
 IU -21.5 50.5 10235165 Q3 IU Q3 55–10
2025 · Week 10
 LIB -3.5 52.5 10377389 Q3 LIB Q1 30–59
2025 · Week 10
 UNLV -4.5 60.5 7526275 Q3 UNM Q1
Lead lost
 40–35
2025 · Week 10
 HOU -12.5 49.5 21425980 Q3 WVU Q1 45–35
2025 · Week 10
 LT -16.5 48.5 14275569 Q3 LT Q2 14–55
2025 · Week 10
 MRSH -7.5 55.5 13376471 Q3 CCU Q1 27–44
2025 · Week 10
 TULN -5.5 54.5 16435774 Q3 UTSA Q1 26–48
2025 · Week 10
 JMU -7.5 55.5 14486972 Q3 JMU Q1 52–20
2025 · Week 9
 TA&M -1.5 49.5 21325374 Q3 TA&M Q3 49–25
2025 · Week 9
 TROY -7.5 47.5 14384858 Q3 TROY Q3
Late cover flip
 23–35
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 133

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 451
Q2 16% 150
Q3 15% 142
Q4 18% 165
OT 1% 8
Push 0% 3
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 69% of 860 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 73% of 867 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over147100% 147
1–34295% 40
4–710290% 92
8–107971% 56
11–148754% 47
15–177340% 29
18–2110222% 22
22+2876% 16
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.