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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

919 games · 2025 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games919100%By halftime142%In Q313314%In Q429132%In OT111%Stayed under47051%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands10511%Over cashed12614%Leader lost the game859%
49% went over. Of the 449 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.

Over cashed in the last 5 minutes: 126 games

2025 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2025 · Postseason
 IU -7.5 47.5 3102448 Q4 MIA Q4
Late over
 21–27
2025 · Postseason
 MIA -3 52.5 3303358 Q4 MIA Q4
Late over
 31–27
2025 · Postseason
 USC -4.5 56.5 327354857 OT TCU Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 27–30
2025 · Postseason
 LOU -11.5 44.5 10101749 Q4 TOL Q1
Late over
 22–27
2025 · Postseason
 USU -1.5 50.5 7142755 Q4 WSU Q1
Late over
 34–21
2025 · Postseason
 ARST -1.5 55.5 21313862 Q4 ARST Q1
Late over
 28–34
2025 · Week 14
 UNLV -7.5 52.5 10314559 Q4 UNLV Q2
Late over
 42–17
2025 · Week 14
 FSU -1.5 49.5 10314561 Q4 FLA Q1
Late over
 21–40
2025 · Week 14
 UTSA -8.5 50.5 7273051 Q4 ARMY Q1
Late over Lead lost
 27–24
2025 · Week 14
 ARST -1.5 54.5 6324659 Q4 APP Q1
Late over Lead lost
 30–29
2025 · Week 14
 WMU -7 49.5 7243852 Q4 WMU Q2
Late over
 31–21
2025 · Week 13
 GT -2.5 61.5 21424970 Q4 PITT Q1
Late over
 42–28
2025 · Week 13
 DUKE -6.5 50.5 14274257 Q4 DUKE Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 32–25
2025 · Week 13
 TOL -28.5 45.5 14273447 Q4 TOL Q4
Late over
 9–38
2025 · Week 13
 MIA -17.5 48.5 10233751 Q4 VT Q1
Late over
 34–17
2025 · Week 13
 ARMY -9.5 43.5 14363951 Q4 TLSA Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 26–25
2025 · Week 13
 OHIO -34.5 53.5 14284256 Q4 MASS Q1
Late over
 14–42
2025 · Week 12
 BYU -2.5 51.5 10374357 Q4 BYU Q1
Late over
 13–44
2025 · Week 12
 KENN -3.5 55.5 14323861 Q4 JXST Q1
Late over
 26–35
2025 · Week 12
 MISS -11.5 53.5 17444458 Q4 FLA Q1
Late over
 24–34
2025 · Week 12
 WAKE -3.5 37.5 7203040 Q4 WAKE Q1
Late over
 12–28
2025 · Week 12
 ECU -2.5 57.5 7274858 Q4 ECU Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 27–31
2025 · Week 12
 GT -16.5 61.5 7284570 Q4 BC Q1
Late over
 36–34
2025 · Week 12
 SJSU -9.5 49.5 14314165 Q4 NEV Q1
Late over
 10–55
2025 · Week 12
 JMU -19.5 54.5 7273768 Q4 JMU Q2
Late over
 10–58
2025 · Week 12
 ASU -9.5 46.5 3323248 Q4 WVU Q4
Late over Lead lost
 23–25
2025 · Week 11
 UCLA -2.5 45.5 7284249 Q4 NEB Q1
Late over
 28–21
2025 · Week 11
 LOU -18.5 49.5 1430434655 OT CAL Q1
Late over
 29–26
2025 · Week 11
 TA&M -6.5 48.5 7143155 Q4 TA&M Q1
Late over
 38–17
2025 · Week 11
 MIA -28.5 47.5 0143448 Q4 SYR Q1
Late over
 10–38
2025 · Week 11
 IU -13.5 50.5 7243051 Q4 PSU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 27–24
2025 · Week 11
 UGA -9.5 56.5 10315262 Q4 UGA Q2
Late over
 41–21
2025 · Week 11
 JMU -13.5 52.5 7334858 Q4 MRSH Q1
Late over
 35–23
2025 · Week 11
 USC -14.5 54.5 14354555 Q4 USC Q4
Late over
 17–38
2025 · Week 10
 UTAH -9.5 58.5 21315259 Q4 UTAH Q2
Late over
 14–45
2025 · Week 10
 TENN -2.5 55.5 17264060 Q4 OU Q2
Late over
 33–27
2025 · Week 10
 ARK -5.5 66.5 7204973 Q4 MSST Q4
Late over Lead lost
 38–35
2025 · Week 10
 KU -24.5 53.5 10173859 Q4 OKST Q1
Late over
 21–38
2025 · Week 10
 WMU -5.5 43.5 7212845 Q4 CMU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 21–24
2025 · Week 10
 TTU -7.5 51.5 7194363 Q4 TTU Q3
Late over
 43–20
2025 · Week 10
 PITT -13.5 52.5 17344855 Q4 PITT Q3
Late over
 35–20
2025 · Week 10
 MEM -13.5 48.5 14384552 Q4 MEM Q1
Late over
 38–14
2025 · Week 9
 MICH -13.5 47.5 10173151 Q4 MSU Q4
Late over
 31–20
2025 · Week 9
 MIA -28.5 45.5 7143549 Q4 MIA Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 7–42
2025 · Week 9
 ALA -12.5 47.5 10202951 Q4 SC Q1
Late over Lead lost
 29–22
2025 · Week 9
 NAVY -14.5 63.5 24343474 Q4 FAU Q1
Late cover flip Late over
 32–42
2025 · Week 9
 M-OH -2.5 40.5 3232643 Q4 M-OH Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 17–26
2025 · Week 9
 CONN -9.5 48.5 1038414871 OT RICE Q1
Late over
 34–37
2025 · Week 9
 ARK -2.5 55.5 7314057 Q4 AUB Q4
Late over
 33–24
2025 · Week 9
 GT -17.5 53.5 6234457 Q4 GT Q3
Late over
 16–41
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 126

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 451
Q2 16% 150
Q3 15% 142
Q4 18% 165
OT 1% 8
Push 0% 3
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 69% of 860 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 73% of 867 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over147100% 147
1–34295% 40
4–710290% 92
8–107971% 56
11–148754% 47
15–177340% 29
18–2110222% 22
22+2876% 16
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.