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NFL edge explorer: how model edges and line moves did across seasons

Do totals finish the way they moved (up toward the Over, down toward the Under)?

NFL games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.

Went with the move
48.2%
of totals finished the way they moved
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ
35%break-even 52.4%70%
242–260 record
502 games
44–53% 95% range
502 decided games · 2023–2026 · every game with a signal

By season

Is it the same every year?
SeasonGamesRecordHit rate
202421096–11445.7%
2025211101–11047.9%
2026 so far8145–3655.6%

By total move size

Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
Edge sizeGamesRecordHit rateAnd up
0.5–1247122–12549.4%48.2% 502
1.5–2.513359–7444.4%47.1% 255
3–4.58947–4252.8%50.0% 122
5+3314–1942.4%42.4% 33

502 games

Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
GameClosingTotal moveResultFinal
NE @ CHI
2026 · Week 7
CHI -3 · 50.5 · final 24–30
 CHI -3 · 50.5 Up 3 47.5 → 50.5 W O 24–30
WSH @ SF
2026 · Week 6
SF -7.5 · 51.5 · final 17–23
 SF -7.5 · 51.5 Up 1 50.5 → 51.5 L U 17–23
DAL @ GB
2026 · Week 6
DAL -1.5 · 54.5 · final 13–23
 DAL -1.5 · 54.5 Up 3 51.5 → 54.5 L U 13–23
LAC @ KC
2026 · Week 6
KC -7.5 · 41.5 · final 6–22
 KC -7.5 · 41.5 Down 5 46.5 → 41.5 W U 6–22
BUF @ LV
2026 · Week 6
BUF -5.5 · 54.5 · final 33–30
 BUF -5.5 · 54.5 Up 7 47.5 → 54.5 W O 33–30
ARI @ LAR
2026 · Week 6
LAR -13.5 · 51.5 · final 18–16
 LAR -13.5 · 51.5 Up 5 46.5 → 51.5 L U 18–16
CHI @ ATL
2026 · Week 6
CHI -1.5 · 50.5 · final 31–23
 CHI -1.5 · 50.5 Up 3 47.5 → 50.5 W O 31–23
BAL @ CLE
2026 · Week 6
BAL -3 · 40.5 · final 10–13
 BAL -3 · 40.5 Down 4 44.5 → 40.5 W U 10–13
TEN @ IND
2026 · Week 6
IND -6.5 · 43.5 · final 26–20
 IND -6.5 · 43.5 Down 5 48.5 → 43.5 L O 26–20
NO @ NYG
2026 · Week 6
NO -1.5 · 46.5 · final 34–27
 NO -1.5 · 46.5 Up 1 45.5 → 46.5 W O 34–27
CAR @ PHI
2026 · Week 6
CAR -3 · 39.5 · final 25–14
 CAR -3 · 39.5 Down 4 43.5 → 39.5 W U 25–14
PIT @ TB
2026 · Week 6
PIT -2.5 · 37.5 · final 26–19
 PIT -2.5 · 37.5 Down 8 45.5 → 37.5 L O 26–19
HOU vs JAX
2026 · Week 6
JAX -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–31
 JAX -2.5 · 42.5 Up 1 41.5 → 42.5 W O 34–31
SEA @ DEN
2026 · Week 6
SEA -3 · 40.5 · final 14–17
 SEA -3 · 40.5 Down 3 43.5 → 40.5 W U 14–17
BUF @ LAR
2026 · Week 5
LAR -3.5 · 55.5 · final 37–34
 LAR -3.5 · 55.5 Up 2 53.5 → 55.5 W O 37–34
BAL @ ATL
2026 · Week 5
ATL -3 · 44.5 · final 30–23
 ATL -3 · 44.5 Down 4 48.5 → 44.5 L O 30–23
DET @ ARI
2026 · Week 5
DET -4.5 · 55.5 · final 45–21
 DET -4.5 · 55.5 Up 6 49.5 → 55.5 W O 45–21
DEN @ LAC
2026 · Week 5
DEN -3 · 42.5 · final 23–17
 DEN -3 · 42.5 Down 2 44.5 → 42.5 W U 23–17
CHI @ GB
2026 · Week 5
CHI -1.5 · 46.5 · final 7–31
 CHI -1.5 · 46.5 Down 3 49.5 → 46.5 W U 7–31
HOU @ TEN
2026 · Week 5
HOU -6.5 · 37.5 · final 26–3
 HOU -6.5 · 37.5 Down 6 43.5 → 37.5 W U 26–3
CIN @ MIA
2026 · Week 5
CIN -7.5 · 45.5 · final 31–24
 CIN -7.5 · 45.5 Down 3 48.5 → 45.5 L O 31–24
LV @ NE
2026 · Week 5
NE -8.5 · 51.5 · final 17–45
 NE -8.5 · 51.5 Up 7 44.5 → 51.5 W O 17–45
MIN @ NO
2026 · Week 5
MIN -2.5 · 41.5 · final 23–13
 MIN -2.5 · 41.5 Down 3 44.5 → 41.5 W U 23–13
IND @ PIT
2026 · Week 5
PIT -3 · 42.5 · final 22–34
 PIT -3 · 42.5 Down 5 47.5 → 42.5 L O 22–34
NYG @ WSH
2026 · Week 5
WSH -3.5 · 41.5 · final 27–27
 WSH -3.5 · 41.5 Down 7 48.5 → 41.5 L O 27–27
PHI vs JAX
2026 · Week 5
JAX -7.5 · 41.5 · final 17–19
 JAX -7.5 · 41.5 Down 3 44.5 → 41.5 W U 17–19
TB @ DAL
2026 · Week 5
DAL -8.5 · 49.5 · final 24–16
 DAL -8.5 · 49.5 Down 3 52.5 → 49.5 W U 24–16
ATL @ NO
2026 · Week 4
NO -1.5 · 48.5 · final 45–24
 NO -1.5 · 48.5 Up 3 45.5 → 48.5 W O 45–24
DET @ CAR
2026 · Week 4
DET -3.5 · 52.5 · final 26–32
 DET -3.5 · 52.5 Up 7 45.5 → 52.5 W O 26–32
KC @ LV
2026 · Week 4
KC -3.5 · 47.5 · final 30–27
 KC -3.5 · 47.5 Up 4 43.5 → 47.5 W O 30–27
DEN @ SF
2026 · Week 4
SF -3 · 48.5 · final 14–24
 SF -3 · 48.5 Up 2 46.5 → 48.5 L U 14–24
LAC @ SEA
2026 · Week 4
SEA -7 · 43.5 · final 23–30
 SEA -7 · 43.5 Down 2 45.5 → 43.5 L O 23–30
MIA @ MIN
2026 · Week 4
MIN -10 · 38.5 · final 10–15
 MIN -10 · 38.5 Down 5 43.5 → 38.5 W U 10–15
NYJ @ CHI
2026 · Week 4
CHI -3.5 · 43.5 · final 12–23
 CHI -3.5 · 43.5 Down 2 45.5 → 43.5 W U 12–23
ARI @ NYG
2026 · Week 4
ARI -2.5 · 43.5 · final 24–36
 ARI -2.5 · 43.5 Down 2 45.5 → 43.5 L O 24–36
LAR @ PHI
2026 · Week 4
LAR -4.5 · 42.5 · final 24–20
 LAR -4.5 · 42.5 Down 5 47.5 → 42.5 L O 24–20
GB @ TB
2026 · Week 4
GB -2.5 · 38.5 · final 17–14
 GB -2.5 · 38.5 Down 9 47.5 → 38.5 W U 17–14
TEN @ BAL
2026 · Week 4
BAL -11.5 · 41.5 · final 18–24
 BAL -11.5 · 41.5 Down 6 47.5 → 41.5 L O 18–24
DAL @ HOU
2026 · Week 4
HOU -3 · 48.5 · final 34–30
 HOU -3 · 48.5 Up 1 47.5 → 48.5 W O 34–30
IND vs WSH
2026 · Week 4
IND -4.5 · 46.5 · final 30–13
 IND -4.5 · 46.5 Down 2 48.5 → 46.5 W U 30–13
PIT @ CLE
2026 · Week 4
PIT -2.5 · 38.5 · final 24–27
 PIT -2.5 · 38.5 Down 2 40.5 → 38.5 L O 24–27
PHI @ CHI
2026 · Week 3
PHI -3 · 42.5 · final 7–27
 PHI -3 · 42.5 Down 4 46.5 → 42.5 W U 7–27
LAR @ DEN
2026 · Week 3
DEN -1.5 · 44.5 · final 26–30
 DEN -1.5 · 44.5 Down 1 45.5 → 44.5 L O 26–30
BAL vs DAL
2026 · Week 3
BAL -3 · 54.5 · final 34–31
 BAL -3 · 54.5 Up 2 52.5 → 54.5 W O 34–31
LV @ NO
2026 · Week 3
NO -3.5 · 44.5 · final 35–27
 NO -3.5 · 44.5 Up 2 42.5 → 44.5 W O 35–27
ARI @ SF
2026 · Week 3
SF -7.5 · 48.5 · final 30–36
 SF -7.5 · 48.5 Up 2 46.5 → 48.5 W O 30–36
MIN @ TB
2026 · Week 3
TB -1.5 · 42.5 · final 23–16
 TB -1.5 · 42.5 Down 1 43.5 → 42.5 W U 23–16
LAC @ BUF
2026 · Week 3
BUF -7 · 50.5 · final 16–24
 BUF -7 · 50.5 Up 2 48.5 → 50.5 L U 16–24
CAR @ CLE
2026 · Week 3
CAR -2.5 · 41.5 · final 18–21
 CAR -2.5 · 41.5 Up 2 39.5 → 41.5 L U 18–21
NYJ @ DET
2026 · Week 3
DET -7 · 49.5 · final 24–31
 DET -7 · 49.5 Up 5 44.5 → 49.5 W O 24–31
Final score is away–home. Result is how the signal’s side finished: W won, L lost, P push. Sorting and the result filter cover every game, not only the ones shown.Show 502
Total move is the closing total against the opening total; a total that moved up went with the move if the game went Over, and one that moved down if it stayed Under. Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.