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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Totals 41.5–47.5 ✕

When did they go over?

510 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 41.5–47.5 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games510100%By halftime82%In Q35511%In Q420039%In OT20%Stayed under24548%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands7114%Over cashed11523%Leader lost the game6212%
52% went over. Of the 265 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.

All 510 games

2023–2026 · Totals 41.5–47.5 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 6
 KC -7.5 41.5 12222528 U KC Q2 6–22
2026 · Week 6
 IND -6.5 43.5 0131946 Q4 TEN Q4
Late over
 26–20
2026 · Week 6
 NE -7.5 42.5 10203045 Q4 NYJ Q3
Late over
 19–26
2026 · Week 6
 NO -1.5 46.5 7203761 Q4 NO Q3 34–27
2026 · Week 6
 JAX -2.5 42.5 7315265 Q3 HOU Q1 34–31
2026 · Week 5
 ATL -3 44.5 1023324653 Q4 BAL Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 30–23
2026 · Week 5
 SEA -3 46.5 14344761 Q3 SF Q4 32–29
2026 · Week 5
 DEN -3 42.5 7132740 U DEN Q4
Late cover flip
 23–17
2026 · Week 5
 CHI -1.5 46.5 7213038 U GB Q1 7–31
2026 · Week 5
 CIN -7.5 45.5 14283855 Q4 MIA Q4
Late cover flip
 31–24
2026 · Week 5
 MIN -2.5 41.5 3132636 U MIN Q4 23–13
2026 · Week 5
 PIT -3 42.5 13304356 Q3 PIT Q2 22–34
2026 · Week 5
 WSH -3.5 41.5 915325454 Q4 NYG Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–27
2026 · Week 5
 JAX -7.5 41.5 7212436 U PHI Q1
Lead lost
 17–19
2026 · Week 4
 KC -3.5 47.5 14232357 Q4 LV Q1
Late over
 30–27
2026 · Week 4
 SEA -7 43.5 10264353 Q4 Push
Late cover flip
 23–30
2026 · Week 4
 CHI -3.5 43.5 7162635 U CHI Q1 12–23
2026 · Week 4
 ARI -2.5 43.5 17365160 Q3 NYG Q2 24–36
2026 · Week 4
 LAR -4.5 42.5 6303044 Q4 PHI Q1
Late over Lead lost
 24–20
2026 · Week 4
 BAL -11.5 41.5 14313442 Q4 TEN Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 18–24
2026 · Week 4
 IND -4.5 46.5 6163343 U IND Q3 30–13
2026 · Week 3
 PHI -3 42.5 7172734 U CHI Q1 7–27
2026 · Week 3
 DEN -1.5 44.5 7163256 Q4 DEN Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 26–30
2026 · Week 3
 NO -3.5 44.5 9294962 Q3 LV Q4 35–27
2026 · Week 3
 TB -1.5 42.5 17273039 U MIN Q1 23–16
2026 · Week 3
 CAR -2.5 41.5 0131939 U CLE Q1 18–21
2026 · Week 3
 HOU -1.5 42.5 3202036 U IND Q1 17–19
2026 · Week 3
 KC -10 45.5 14212434 U KC Q4
Late cover flip
 24–10
2026 · Week 3
 CIN -3.5 42.5 21344457 Q3 PIT Q1 27–30
2026 · Week 3
 JAX -3 46.5 0173141 U JAX Q2 6–35
2026 · Week 3
 GB -4.5 43.5 14243149 Q4 ATL Q1
Late over
 35–14
2026 · Week 2
 LAR -7 47.5 7172734 U LAR Q2 6–28
2026 · Week 2
 KC -6 46.5 1737445463 Q4 IND Q1 30–33
2026 · Week 2
 SF -12.5 44.5 7204148 Q4 SF Q3
Late over
 13–35
2026 · Week 2
 DEN -2.5 45.5 0131933 U DEN Q4 13–20
2026 · Week 2
 LAC -6.5 43.5 0173140 U LV Q1 26–14
2026 · Week 2
 CAR -2.5 43.5 10233737 U CAR Q1 34–3
2026 · Week 2
 CHI -4.5 46.5 69912 U MIN Q1 9–3
2026 · Week 2
 NE -4.5 41.5 7131623 U NE Q1 3–20
2026 · Week 2
 GB -3.5 44.5 014213437 U NYJ Q1
Lead lost
 20–17
2026 · Week 2
 TB -8.5 41.5 9153242 Q4 CLE Q1
Late over Lead lost
 23–19
2026 · Week 2
 BAL -8.5 45.5 7202641 U NO Q1 24–17
2026 · Week 2
 HOU -3 45.5 0102326 U CIN Q1 20–6
2026 · Week 1
 KC -2.5 42.5 14213441 U KC Q2 10–31
2026 · Week 1
 DAL -3 47.5 7213548 Q4 NYG Q1 20–28
2026 · Week 1
 MIN -2.5 46.5 12293961 Q4 MIN Q4 22–39
2026 · Week 1
 PHI -6 43.5 3232646 Q4 WSH Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 22–24
2026 · Week 1
 LAC -8.5 47.5 14203040 U ARI Q1 26–14
2026 · Week 1
 CHI -3 47.5 21557696 Q2 CHI Q1 59–37
2026 · Week 1
 BUF -1.5 44.5 10454867 Q2 BUF Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 36–31
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 510

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 252
Q2 17% 88
Q3 11% 58
Q4 19% 99
OT 2% 8
Push 1% 5
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 71% of 480 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 75% of 493 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over63100% 63
1–32997% 28
4–75584% 46
8–106764% 43
11–146166% 40
15–176434% 22
18–217419% 14
22+979% 9
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.