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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Totals 37.5–43.5 ✕

When did they go over?

371 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 37.5–43.5 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games371100%By halftime62%In Q34612%In Q413637%In OT10%Stayed under18249%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands5114%Over cashed7320%Leader lost the game4412%
51% went over. Of the 189 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.

All 371 games

2023–2026 · Totals 37.5–43.5 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 6
 KC -7.5 41.5 12222528 U KC Q2 6–22
2026 · Week 6
 BAL -3 40.5 10101323 U CLE Q4 10–13
2026 · Week 6
 IND -6.5 43.5 0131946 Q4 TEN Q4
Late over
 26–20
2026 · Week 6
 NE -7.5 42.5 10203045 Q4 NYJ Q3
Late over
 19–26
2026 · Week 6
 CAR -3 39.5 3172039 U CAR Q3 25–14
2026 · Week 6
 PIT -2.5 37.5 316193845 Q4 PIT OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 26–19
2026 · Week 6
 JAX -2.5 42.5 7315265 Q3 HOU Q1 34–31
2026 · Week 6
 SEA -3 40.5 317172831 U DEN Q2 14–17
2026 · Week 5
 DEN -3 42.5 7132740 U DEN Q4
Late cover flip
 23–17
2026 · Week 5
 HOU -6.5 37.5 6152229 U HOU Q2 26–3
2026 · Week 5
 MIN -2.5 41.5 3132636 U MIN Q4 23–13
2026 · Week 5
 NYJ -2.5 38.5 10131329 U NYJ Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 12–17
2026 · Week 5
 PIT -3 42.5 13304356 Q3 PIT Q2 22–34
2026 · Week 5
 WSH -3.5 41.5 915325454 Q4 NYG Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–27
2026 · Week 5
 JAX -7.5 41.5 7212436 U PHI Q1
Lead lost
 17–19
2026 · Week 4
 SEA -7 43.5 10264353 Q4 Push
Late cover flip
 23–30
2026 · Week 4
 MIN -10 38.5 392225 U MIA Q1 10–15
2026 · Week 4
 CHI -3.5 43.5 7162635 U CHI Q1 12–23
2026 · Week 4
 ARI -2.5 43.5 17365160 Q3 NYG Q2 24–36
2026 · Week 4
 LAR -4.5 42.5 6303044 Q4 PHI Q1
Late over Lead lost
 24–20
2026 · Week 4
 GB -2.5 38.5 0172431 U GB Q2 17–14
2026 · Week 4
 BAL -11.5 41.5 14313442 Q4 TEN Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 18–24
2026 · Week 4
 PIT -2.5 38.5 7313151 Q4 CLE Q2 24–27
2026 · Week 3
 PHI -3 42.5 7172734 U CHI Q1 7–27
2026 · Week 3
 TB -1.5 42.5 17273039 U MIN Q1 23–16
2026 · Week 3
 CAR -2.5 41.5 0131939 U CLE Q1 18–21
2026 · Week 3
 HOU -1.5 42.5 3202036 U IND Q1 17–19
2026 · Week 3
 NYG -2.5 37.5 391219 U NYG Q1 7–12
2026 · Week 3
 CIN -3.5 42.5 21344457 Q3 PIT Q1 27–30
2026 · Week 3
 SEA -8.5 40.5 7274164 Q3 WSH Q1 31–33
2026 · Week 3
 GB -4.5 43.5 14243149 Q4 ATL Q1
Late over
 35–14
2026 · Week 2
 SEA -3.5 40.5 7142438 U SEA Q3 31–7
2026 · Week 2
 LAC -6.5 43.5 0173140 U LV Q1 26–14
2026 · Week 2
 CAR -2.5 43.5 10233737 U CAR Q1 34–3
2026 · Week 2
 PHI -7 39.5 7243444 Q4 TEN Q1
Late over
 24–20
2026 · Week 2
 NE -4.5 41.5 7131623 U NE Q1 3–20
2026 · Week 2
 TB -8.5 41.5 9153242 Q4 CLE Q1
Late over Lead lost
 23–19
2026 · Week 1
 KC -2.5 42.5 14213441 U KC Q2 10–31
2026 · Week 1
 LV -3 40.5 7234040 U LV Q1 13–27
2026 · Week 1
 PHI -6 43.5 3232646 Q4 WSH Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 22–24
2026 · Week 1
 TEN -1.5 39.5 10132333 U NYJ Q1 23–10
2026 · Week 1
 PIT -6.5 40.5 10202333 U PIT Q4 13–20
2026 · Week 1
 JAX -8.5 40.5 14243744 Q4 JAX Q1
Late over
 10–34
2025 · Postseason
 NE -3.5 43.5 7141717 U DEN Q1 10–7
2025 · Postseason
 NE -3 40.5 10313744 Q4 NE Q1 16–28
2025 · Postseason
 HOU -3 38.5 3131336 U HOU Q4 30–6
2025 · Week 18
 BAL -4.5 41.5 7132350 Q4 PIT Q3
Late over Lead lost
 24–26
2025 · Week 18
 BUF -13.5 39.5 7212943 Q4 BUF Q2 8–35
2025 · Week 18
 DEN -15.5 37.5 10131622 U DEN Q4
Late cover flip
 3–19
2025 · Week 18
 NE -14.5 43.5 14274148 Q4 NE Q3 10–38
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 371

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 186
Q2 16% 60
Q3 11% 40
Q4 20% 74
OT 1% 4
Push 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 349 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 75% of 352 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over52100% 52
1–32295% 21
4–74080% 32
8–104860% 29
11–144867% 32
15–175524% 13
18–214914% 7
22+575% 3
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.