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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Totals 36.5–42.5 ✕

When did they go over?

302 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 36.5–42.5 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games302100%By halftime62%In Q34013%In Q411438%In OT00%Stayed under14247%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands4013%Over cashed6221%Leader lost the game3512%
53% went over. Of the 160 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.

All 302 games

2023–2026 · Totals 36.5–42.5 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 6
 KC -7.5 41.5 12222528 U KC Q2 6–22
2026 · Week 6
 BAL -3 40.5 10101323 U CLE Q4 10–13
2026 · Week 6
 NE -7.5 42.5 10203045 Q4 NYJ Q3
Late over
 19–26
2026 · Week 6
 CAR -3 39.5 3172039 U CAR Q3 25–14
2026 · Week 6
 PIT -2.5 37.5 316193845 Q4 PIT OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 26–19
2026 · Week 6
 JAX -2.5 42.5 7315265 Q3 HOU Q1 34–31
2026 · Week 6
 SEA -3 40.5 317172831 U DEN Q2 14–17
2026 · Week 5
 DEN -3 42.5 7132740 U DEN Q4
Late cover flip
 23–17
2026 · Week 5
 HOU -6.5 37.5 6152229 U HOU Q2 26–3
2026 · Week 5
 MIN -2.5 41.5 3132636 U MIN Q4 23–13
2026 · Week 5
 NYJ -2.5 38.5 10131329 U NYJ Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 12–17
2026 · Week 5
 PIT -3 42.5 13304356 Q3 PIT Q2 22–34
2026 · Week 5
 WSH -3.5 41.5 915325454 Q4 NYG Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–27
2026 · Week 5
 JAX -7.5 41.5 7212436 U PHI Q1
Lead lost
 17–19
2026 · Week 4
 MIN -10 38.5 392225 U MIA Q1 10–15
2026 · Week 4
 LAR -4.5 42.5 6303044 Q4 PHI Q1
Late over Lead lost
 24–20
2026 · Week 4
 GB -2.5 38.5 0172431 U GB Q2 17–14
2026 · Week 4
 BAL -11.5 41.5 14313442 Q4 TEN Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 18–24
2026 · Week 4
 PIT -2.5 38.5 7313151 Q4 CLE Q2 24–27
2026 · Week 3
 PHI -3 42.5 7172734 U CHI Q1 7–27
2026 · Week 3
 TB -1.5 42.5 17273039 U MIN Q1 23–16
2026 · Week 3
 CAR -2.5 41.5 0131939 U CLE Q1 18–21
2026 · Week 3
 HOU -1.5 42.5 3202036 U IND Q1 17–19
2026 · Week 3
 NYG -2.5 37.5 391219 U NYG Q1 7–12
2026 · Week 3
 CIN -3.5 42.5 21344457 Q3 PIT Q1 27–30
2026 · Week 3
 SEA -8.5 40.5 7274164 Q3 WSH Q1 31–33
2026 · Week 2
 SEA -3.5 40.5 7142438 U SEA Q3 31–7
2026 · Week 2
 PHI -7 39.5 7243444 Q4 TEN Q1
Late over
 24–20
2026 · Week 2
 NE -4.5 41.5 7131623 U NE Q1 3–20
2026 · Week 2
 TB -8.5 41.5 9153242 Q4 CLE Q1
Late over Lead lost
 23–19
2026 · Week 1
 KC -2.5 42.5 14213441 U KC Q2 10–31
2026 · Week 1
 LV -3 40.5 7234040 U LV Q1 13–27
2026 · Week 1
 TEN -1.5 39.5 10132333 U NYJ Q1 23–10
2026 · Week 1
 PIT -6.5 40.5 10202333 U PIT Q4 13–20
2026 · Week 1
 JAX -8.5 40.5 14243744 Q4 JAX Q1
Late over
 10–34
2025 · Postseason
 NE -3 40.5 10313744 Q4 NE Q1 16–28
2025 · Postseason
 HOU -3 38.5 3131336 U HOU Q4 30–6
2025 · Week 18
 BAL -4.5 41.5 7132350 Q4 PIT Q3
Late over Lead lost
 24–26
2025 · Week 18
 BUF -13.5 39.5 7212943 Q4 BUF Q2 8–35
2025 · Week 18
 DEN -15.5 37.5 10131622 U DEN Q4
Late cover flip
 3–19
2025 · Week 18
 PHI -3 38.5 0172741 Q4 WSH Q4
Late over
 24–17
2025 · Week 18
 MIN -13.5 37.5 3131319 U GB Q1 3–16
2025 · Week 18
 HOU -9.5 37.5 16405368 Q2 IND Q1 30–38
2025 · Week 18
 TB -3 42.5 10202030 U CAR Q4
Late cover flip
 14–16
2025 · Week 17
 NYG -3 40.5 7203744 Q4 NYG Q1
Late over
 34–10
2025 · Week 17
 NO -1.5 38.5 6304360 Q3 NO Q4
Late cover flip
 34–26
2025 · Week 17
 NE -12.5 42.5 14384552 Q3 NE Q1 42–10
2025 · Week 17
 SEA -6.5 42.5 362037 U SEA Q3 27–10
2025 · Week 17
 GB -2.5 37.5 14415165 Q2 BAL Q1 41–24
2025 · Week 17
 LAC -1.5 40.5 14172736 U HOU Q1 20–16
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 302

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 152
Q2 16% 49
Q3 11% 33
Q4 20% 59
OT 1% 3
Push 2% 6
The team leading at halftime won 76% and covered 72% of 282 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 77% of 286 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over46100% 46
1–31995% 18
4–73288% 28
8–103959% 23
11–144365% 28
15–174823% 11
18–213113% 4
22+445% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.