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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

214 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games214100%By halftime42%In Q32110%In Q47535%In OT00%Stayed under11453%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands2411%Over cashed3617%Leader lost the game2512%
48% went over. Of the 100 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.

All 214 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 SF -2 47 013233847 P KC Q3 22–25
2023 · Postseason
 SF -7.5 53.5 14314865 Q4 DET Q1
Late over
 31–34
2023 · Postseason
 BAL -4.5 44 14242427 U KC Q1 17–10
2023 · Postseason
 BUF -2.5 46 6304451 Q4 KC Q4 27–24
2023 · Postseason
 DET -6 50 6203454 Q4 DET Q4
Late over
 23–31
2023 · Postseason
 SF -10.5 50.5 3133545 U GB Q1
Lead lost
 21–24
2023 · Postseason
 BAL -10 44 6202744 P BAL Q4 10–34
2023 · Postseason
 PHI -3 43 10253441 U TB Q1 9–32
2023 · Postseason
 BUF -10 39.5 14283448 Q4 BUF Q1 17–31
2023 · Postseason
 DET -3 53 17384447 U LAR Q4 23–24
2023 · Postseason
 DAL -7 52 7345780 Q3 GB Q1 48–32
2023 · Postseason
 KC -4.5 43.5 7232633 U KC Q1 7–26
2023 · Postseason
 CLE -2.5 45 17385259 Q3 HOU Q1 14–45
2023 · Week 18
 BUF -2.5 48 0212135 U BUF Q4 21–14
2023 · Week 18
 GB -2.5 46 3132026 U GB Q3 9–17
2023 · Week 18
 LV -3 37.5 7242441 Q4 LV Q1 14–27
2023 · Week 18
 PHI -5 43 3242737 U NYG Q1 10–27
2023 · Week 18
 SEA -3 47.5 3192641 U ARI Q3
Lead lost
 21–20
2023 · Week 18
 LAC -3.5 35 7161925 U KC Q1 13–12
2023 · Week 18
 SF -5.5 40 14273341 Q4 LAR Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 21–20
2023 · Week 18
 DAL -13 47 7314548 Q4 DAL Q3
Late over
 38–10
2023 · Week 18
 CIN -7 37 14243145 Q4 CIN Q1 14–31
2023 · Week 18
 DET -3.5 47.5 13193350 Q4 DET Q1 20–30
2023 · Week 18
 JAX -3.5 41 10344148 Q4 TEN Q1 20–28
2023 · Week 18
 NE -2.5 28.5 39920 U NYJ Q1 17–3
2023 · Week 18
 NO -3 41.5 21344865 Q3 NO Q3 17–48
2023 · Week 18
 TB -4.5 36.5 0669 U TB Q2 9–0
2023 · Week 18
 HOU -1.5 48 10203142 U HOU Q1 23–19
2023 · Week 18
 PIT -3 34 7141427 U PIT Q4 17–10
2023 · Week 17
 GB -1 42.5 10263343 Q4 GB Q1 33–10
2023 · Week 17
 DEN -3.5 39 3161925 U DEN Q2 9–16
2023 · Week 17
 KC -7.5 46 10303342 U KC Q4
Late cover flip
 17–25
2023 · Week 17
 SEA -4 40.5 7314153 Q3 PIT Q1 30–23
2023 · Week 17
 BUF -15.5 40 20344148 Q3 NE Q1 21–27
2023 · Week 17
 CHI -2.5 39.5 7283754 Q4 CHI Q1 17–37
2023 · Week 17
 IND -3.5 42.5 10172743 Q4 LV Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 20–23
2023 · Week 17
 LAR -6 43.5 7243651 Q4 NYG Q2
Late cover flip
 26–25
2023 · Week 17
 PHI -12.5 48 10274266 Q4 ARI Q3 35–31
2023 · Week 17
 TB -2.5 42.5 7172036 U NO Q1 23–13
2023 · Week 17
 SF -14 48.5 10233037 U SF Q4 27–10
2023 · Week 17
 JAX -3.5 38 391926 U JAX Q2 0–26
2023 · Week 17
 BAL -3 47 17414875 Q3 BAL Q2 19–56
2023 · Week 17
 HOU -5.5 44 3232629 U HOU Q2 3–26
2023 · Week 17
 DAL -4.5 53 10102039 U DET Q1 19–20
2023 · Week 17
 CLE -7 33.5 27515157 Q2 CLE Q1 20–37
2023 · Week 16
 SF -6.5 47 8284552 Q4 BAL Q1 33–19
2023 · Week 16
 PHI -14 41 10233858 Q4 NYG Q3 25–33
2023 · Week 16
 KC -11 40.5 3242734 U LV Q1 20–14
2023 · Week 16
 DEN -7 37.5 7103049 Q4 NE Q2 26–23
2023 · Week 16
 CHI -4.5 42 7283443 Q4 CHI Q1
Late over
 16–27
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 214

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 100
Q2 21% 44
Q3 10% 21
Q4 19% 40
OT 1% 2
Push 3% 7
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 72% of 199 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 79% of 200 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over25100% 25
1–313100% 13
4–72793% 25
8–102638% 10
11–142952% 15
15–173023% 7
18–21339% 3
22+316% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.