When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
282 games · 2025 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 147 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
Stayed under: 135 games
2025 · newest first · showing 50
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
SEA -4.5 | 45.5 | 391242 | U | SEA Q2 | 29–13 |
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3.5 | 43.5 | 7141717 | U | DEN Q1 | 10–7 |
2025 · Postseason |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 720203437 | U | CHI Q2 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
2025 · Postseason |
HOU -3 | 38.5 | 3131336 | U | HOU Q4 | 30–6 |
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3.5 | 45.5 | 091219 | U | NE Q3 | 3–16 |
2025 · Postseason |
PHI -5.5 | 44.5 | 13232642 | U | SF Q4 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2025 · Postseason |
JAX -1.5 | 51.5 | 3172351 | U | BUF Q1 | 27–24 |
2025 · Week 18 |
CHI -3 | 51.5 | 3131635 | U | DET Q1 | 19–16 |
2025 · Week 18 |
DEN -15.5 | 37.5 | 10131622 | U | DEN Q4 Late cover flip |
3–19 |
2025 · Week 18 |
KC -3.5 | 35.5 | 391226 | U | LV Q1 | 12–14 |
2025 · Week 18 |
ATL -3.5 | 43.5 | 7172336 | U | NO Q2 Late cover flip |
17–19 |
2025 · Week 18 |
CIN -8.5 | 47.5 | 13262938 | U | CLE Q1 | 20–18 |
2025 · Week 18 |
MIN -13.5 | 37.5 | 3131319 | U | GB Q1 | 3–16 |
2025 · Week 18 |
SEA -2.5 | 48.5 | 7131316 | U | SEA Q1 | 13–3 |
2025 · Week 18 |
TB -3 | 42.5 | 10202030 | U | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
14–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
BUF -3.5 | 45.5 | 7131325 | U | PHI Q1 | 13–12 |
2025 · Week 17 |
CIN -7 | 53.5 | 7304451 | U | CIN Q2 | 14–37 |
2025 · Week 17 |
PIT -3.5 | 34.5 | 10161619 | U | CLE Q1 | 6–13 |
2025 · Week 17 |
JAX -4.5 | 48.5 | 3173440 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–17 |
2025 · Week 17 |
TB -5.5 | 44.5 | 14242737 | U | MIA Q1 | 17–20 |
2025 · Week 17 |
SEA -6.5 | 42.5 | 362037 | U | SEA Q3 | 27–10 |
2025 · Week 17 |
LAC -1.5 | 40.5 | 14172736 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DEN -13.5 | 37.5 | 3132333 | U | KC Q1 | 20–13 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DET -7.5 | 45.5 | 7142033 | U | MIN Q1 | 10–23 |
2025 · Week 16 |
ATL -2.5 | 48.5 | 13323545 | U | ATL Q3 | 26–19 |
2025 · Week 16 |
KC -3.5 | 37.5 | 0152535 | U | TEN Q1 | 9–26 |
2025 · Week 16 |
NO -7 | 39.5 | 6152235 | U | NO Q3 | 6–29 |
2025 · Week 16 |
MIN -2.5 | 41.5 | 3232329 | U | MIN Q1 Late cover flip |
16–13 |
2025 · Week 16 |
TB -3 | 44.5 | 10233743 | U | CAR Q2 | 20–23 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CHI -1.5 | 44.5 | 06163238 | U | CHI OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–22 |
2025 · Week 15 |
PIT -3 | 43.5 | 0102443 | U | PIT Q2 | 15–28 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 7172737 | U | NO Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 15 |
SEA -12.5 | 41.5 | 6192234 | U | IND Q1 Lead lost |
16–18 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CHI -7.5 | 38.5 | 14143134 | U | CHI Q1 | 3–31 |
2025 · Week 15 |
BAL -2.5 | 51.5 | 0141724 | U | BAL Q2 | 24–0 |
2025 · Week 15 |
KC -5.5 | 41.5 | 10232929 | U | LAC Q1 | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 15 |
PHI -12.5 | 36.5 | 7172431 | U | PHI Q2 | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 14 |
PHI -1.5 | 41.5 | 1016223841 | U | LAC Q1 | 19–22 |
2025 · Week 14 |
KC -4.5 | 41.5 | 3102030 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–10 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MIN -1.5 | 43.5 | 7142431 | U | MIN Q1 | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 13 |
BUF -3 | 44.5 | 0102333 | U | BUF Q3 | 26–7 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SEA -12.5 | 42.5 | 0131926 | U | SEA Q2 | 0–26 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SF -5.5 | 35.5 | 7182534 | U | SF Q3 | 26–8 |
2025 · Week 13 |
JAX -6 | 42.5 | 10212828 | U | JAX Q2 | 25–3 |
2025 · Week 13 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 3162636 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–16 |
2025 · Week 13 |
TB -4.5 | 45.5 | 0132737 | U | ARI Q4 Late cover flip |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 13 |
PHI -7 | 43.5 | 7131939 | U | CHI Q1 | 24–15 |
2025 · Week 13 |
BAL -7 | 52.5 | 10194046 | U | CIN Q1 | 32–14 |
2025 · Week 12 |
SF -7 | 48.5 | 7132629 | U | SF Q3 | 9–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
LAR -7.5 | 50.5 | 14383841 | U | LAR Q1 | 7–34 |
SEA
NE
DEN
LAR
CHI
HOU
PIT
LAC
SF
PHI
BUF
JAX
DET
KC
LV
NO
ATL
CLE
CIN
GB
MIN
CAR
TB
ARI
IND
MIA
TEN
NYJ
NYG
BAL
WSHWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 51% 144
Q2 16% 46
Q3 13% 38
Q4 17% 49
OT 2% 5
The team leading at halftime won 76% and covered 72% of 258 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 76% of 270 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 39 | 100% 39 |
| 1–3 | 14 | 100% 14 |
| 4–7 | 33 | 76% 25 |
| 8–10 | 31 | 81% 25 |
| 11–14 | 29 | 66% 19 |
| 15–17 | 25 | 48% 12 |
| 18–21 | 44 | 18% 8 |
| 22+ | 67 | 7% 5 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.