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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

214 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games214100%By halftime42%In Q32110%In Q47535%In OT00%Stayed under11453%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands2411%Over cashed3617%Leader lost the game2512%
48% went over. Of the 100 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.

Stayed under: 114 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 SF -2 47 013233847 P KC Q3 22–25
2023 · Postseason
 BAL -4.5 44 14242427 U KC Q1 17–10
2023 · Postseason
 SF -10.5 50.5 3133545 U GB Q1
Lead lost
 21–24
2023 · Postseason
 BAL -10 44 6202744 P BAL Q4 10–34
2023 · Postseason
 PHI -3 43 10253441 U TB Q1 9–32
2023 · Postseason
 DET -3 53 17384447 U LAR Q4 23–24
2023 · Postseason
 KC -4.5 43.5 7232633 U KC Q1 7–26
2023 · Week 18
 BUF -2.5 48 0212135 U BUF Q4 21–14
2023 · Week 18
 GB -2.5 46 3132026 U GB Q3 9–17
2023 · Week 18
 PHI -5 43 3242737 U NYG Q1 10–27
2023 · Week 18
 SEA -3 47.5 3192641 U ARI Q3
Lead lost
 21–20
2023 · Week 18
 LAC -3.5 35 7161925 U KC Q1 13–12
2023 · Week 18
 NE -2.5 28.5 39920 U NYJ Q1 17–3
2023 · Week 18
 TB -4.5 36.5 0669 U TB Q2 9–0
2023 · Week 18
 HOU -1.5 48 10203142 U HOU Q1 23–19
2023 · Week 18
 PIT -3 34 7141427 U PIT Q4 17–10
2023 · Week 17
 DEN -3.5 39 3161925 U DEN Q2 9–16
2023 · Week 17
 KC -7.5 46 10303342 U KC Q4
Late cover flip
 17–25
2023 · Week 17
 TB -2.5 42.5 7172036 U NO Q1 23–13
2023 · Week 17
 SF -14 48.5 10233037 U SF Q4 27–10
2023 · Week 17
 JAX -3.5 38 391926 U JAX Q2 0–26
2023 · Week 17
 HOU -5.5 44 3232629 U HOU Q2 3–26
2023 · Week 17
 DAL -4.5 53 10102039 U DET Q1 19–20
2023 · Week 16
 KC -11 40.5 3242734 U LV Q1 20–14
2023 · Week 16
 MIA -1.5 48.5 10202942 U MIA Q2 20–22
2023 · Week 16
 JAX -1.5 43 3203642 U TB Q1 12–30
2023 · Week 16
 ATL -2.5 44 14203039 U ATL Q2 10–29
2023 · Week 16
 SEA -3 42.5 0131637 U Push 20–17
2023 · Week 15
 PHI -5 46 7132737 U SEA Q4
Lead lost
 17–20
2023 · Week 15
 BAL -4 42.5 3101730 U BAL Q4 23–7
2023 · Week 15
 BUF -2.5 49 7242741 U BUF Q1 10–31
2023 · Week 15
 LAR -6.5 48.5 3132748 U LAR Q2 20–28
2023 · Week 15
 CLE -2.5 38 0142437 U CLE Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–20
2023 · Week 15
 TEN -3 38 616223235 U HOU Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 19–16
2023 · Week 15
 MIA -7 35.5 7242730 U MIA Q2 0–30
2023 · Week 15
 NO -6 39.5 10132330 U NO Q3 6–24
2023 · Week 15
 ATL -2.5 32.5 0101016 U CAR Q4
Lead lost
 7–9
2023 · Week 14
 DAL -3.5 52.5 10304046 U DAL Q1 13–33
2023 · Week 14
 KC -2 49 7213137 U BUF Q1 20–17
2023 · Week 14
 LAC -3 45.5 7101731 U DEN Q1 24–7
2023 · Week 14
 MIN -3 40.5 0003 U Push
Late cover flip
 3–0
2023 · Week 14
 SF -14 45.5 17243744 U SEA Q1 16–28
2023 · Week 14
 DET -3 44.5 10233241 U CHI Q3 13–28
2023 · Week 14
 NO -5.5 38.5 0172034 U NO Q2 6–28
2023 · Week 13
 LAC -4.5 38.5 0666 U LAC Q2 6–0
2023 · Week 13
 ATL -2 33 2152121 U ATL Q2 13–8
2023 · Week 13
 PIT -6 41 6132034 U ARI Q1 24–10
2023 · Week 13
 HOU -3 47 10162639 U HOU Q1 17–22
2023 · Week 12
 MIN -3 43 06922 U CHI Q1
Lead lost
 12–10
2023 · Week 12
 BAL -3 49 3131630 U BAL Q2
Late cover flip
 20–10
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 114

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 100
Q2 21% 44
Q3 10% 21
Q4 19% 40
OT 1% 2
Push 3% 7
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 72% of 199 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 79% of 200 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over25100% 25
1–313100% 13
4–72793% 25
8–102638% 10
11–142952% 15
15–173023% 7
18–21339% 3
22+316% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.