When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
874 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 450 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
Went over in Q3: 96 games
2023–2026 · newest first · showing 50
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 6 |
JAX -2.5 | 42.5 | 7315265 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 34–31 |
2026 · Week 5 |
SEA -3 | 46.5 | 14344761 | Q3 | SF Q4 | 32–29 |
2026 · Week 5 |
PIT -3 | 42.5 | 13304356 | Q3 | PIT Q2 | 22–34 |
2026 · Week 4 |
ARI -2.5 | 43.5 | 17365160 | Q3 | NYG Q2 | 24–36 |
2026 · Week 3 |
NO -3.5 | 44.5 | 9294962 | Q3 | LV Q4 | 35–27 |
2026 · Week 3 |
CIN -3.5 | 42.5 | 21344457 | Q3 | PIT Q1 | 27–30 |
2026 · Week 3 |
SEA -8.5 | 40.5 | 7274164 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 31–33 |
2025 · Postseason |
SEA -2.5 | 45.5 | 13305858 | Q3 | SEA Q1 | 27–31 |
2025 · Week 17 |
SF -4.5 | 51.5 | 28496380 | Q3 | CHI Q4 Lead lost |
38–42 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NO -1.5 | 38.5 | 6304360 | Q3 | NO Q4 Late cover flip |
34–26 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NE -12.5 | 42.5 | 14384552 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 42–10 |
2025 · Week 16 |
SF -4.5 | 46.5 | 21415475 | Q3 | SF Q1 | 48–27 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DEN -3.5 | 46.5 | 7274854 | Q3 | JAX Q1 | 34–20 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CIN -3.5 | 48.5 | 14315266 | Q3 | CIN Q3 | 45–21 |
2025 · Week 15 |
GB -1.5 | 42.5 | 3305060 | Q3 | DEN Q3 | 26–34 |
2025 · Week 15 |
LAR -5.5 | 54.5 | 14415875 | Q3 | LAR Q3 | 34–41 |
2025 · Week 15 |
HOU -10.5 | 42.5 | 17304460 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 20–40 |
2025 · Week 14 |
CLE -4.5 | 33.5 | 17313860 | Q3 | TEN Q1 | 31–29 |
2025 · Week 13 |
LAR -10 | 44.5 | 21384559 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 28–31 |
2025 · Week 12 |
SEA -11.5 | 41.5 | 6194754 | Q3 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip |
30–24 |
2025 · Week 11 |
BUF -6.5 | 44.5 | 10415776 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip |
32–44 |
2025 · Week 10 |
DET -7.5 | 48.5 | 17355166 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 44–22 |
2025 · Week 10 |
HOU -2.5 | 38.5 | 10303965 | Q3 | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–36 |
2025 · Week 9 |
CHI -2.5 | 51.5 | 17375889 | Q3 | CHI Q3 | 47–42 |
2025 · Week 8 |
CIN -5.5 | 43.5 | 10374777 | Q3 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
39–38 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DAL -2.5 | 54.5 | 25426366 | Q3 | DAL Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 7 |
LAC -2.5 | 48.5 | 9265562 | Q3 | IND Q1 | 38–24 |
2025 · Week 7 |
NE -6.5 | 41.5 | 13304444 | Q3 | NE Q3 | 31–13 |
2025 · Week 6 |
PHI -7.5 | 41.5 | 23374451 | Q3 | NYG Q1 | 17–34 |
2025 · Week 5 |
SEA -3.5 | 45.5 | 3204973 | Q3 | TB Q1 | 38–35 |
2025 · Week 5 |
HOU -2.5 | 41.5 | 10274454 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 44–10 |
2025 · Week 4 |
ATL -2.5 | 44.5 | 10274761 | Q3 | ATL Q1 | 27–34 |
2025 · Week 4 |
PHI -3.5 | 43.5 | 17305156 | Q3 | PHI Q1 | 31–25 |
2025 · Week 3 |
IND -5.5 | 42.5 | 20264761 | Q3 | IND Q1 | 41–20 |
2025 · Week 3 |
MIN -3.5 | 42.5 | 14375158 | Q3 | MIN Q1 | 10–48 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PHI -3.5 | 45.5 | 17264759 | Q3 | PHI Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
26–33 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DEN -1.5 | 43.5 | 13415157 | Q3 | IND Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–29 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DET -6.5 | 45.5 | 21425273 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 21–52 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MIA -2.5 | 42.5 | 12294360 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 33–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 10335381 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
40–41 |
2025 · Week 1 |
PIT -2.5 | 38.5 | 16364366 | Q3 | NYJ Q1 Lead lost |
34–32 |
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -6.5 | 47.5 | 17425778 | Q3 | PHI Q1 | 23–55 |
2024 · Postseason |
DET -8.5 | 55.5 | 10525976 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 45–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
SEA -7.5 | 38.5 | 10304055 | Q3 | LAR Q4 Lead lost |
30–25 |
2024 · Week 18 |
ARI -4.5 | 42.5 | 6375071 | Q3 | ARI Q4 | 24–47 |
2024 · Week 18 |
ATL -7.5 | 48.5 | 641557682 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 17 |
DET -3.5 | 50.5 | 13345974 | Q3 | DET Q4 | 40–34 |
2024 · Week 17 |
IND -7.5 | 40.5 | 10344878 | Q3 | NYG Q1 | 33–45 |
2024 · Week 17 |
PHI -7.5 | 37.5 | 14314148 | Q3 | PHI Q2 | 7–41 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TB -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415562 | Q3 | TB Q2 | 14–48 |
HOU
JAX
SF
SEA
IND
PIT
ARI
NYG
LV
NO
CIN
WSH
LAR
CHI
TEN
NE
NYJ
DEN
MIA
GB
DET
CLE
CAR
TB
BUF
DAL
LAC
PHI
BAL
ATL
MINWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 431
Q2 17% 152
Q3 11% 97
Q4 19% 168
OT 2% 15
Push 1% 11
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 816 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 76% of 833 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 111 | 100% 111 |
| 1–3 | 44 | 95% 42 |
| 4–7 | 102 | 87% 89 |
| 8–10 | 101 | 64% 65 |
| 11–14 | 117 | 60% 70 |
| 15–17 | 108 | 33% 36 |
| 18–21 | 121 | 19% 23 |
| 22+ | 170 | 8% 14 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.